The Nal Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, EamerRed said: Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Tuesday. And even then the Saturday and Sunday will be inaccurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1waveydavey Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, EamerRed said: To be honest, and I don't mean to sound like a douche, but this thread is the same every day at the moment. Log on, check forecasts as an extra day is added, debate the better model, laugh at The Nal, laugh/cry due to the update, repeat. Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Is it a case of waiting until most of them match up, or waiting until say, Sat/Sun and thinking that there's a fairly good chance that it is accurate from there? It was the same last year, and the year before..... The good news is, its included in the ticket price so you don't have to pay extra for it. Which is nice. The payoff? Nobody really knows and it will change the day before each day regardless. It wont stop us coming here for a nose around though because we're all fools to a man/woman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skelts Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, EamerRed said: Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Is it a case of waiting until most of them match up, or waiting until say, Sat/Sun and thinking that there's a fairly good chance that it is accurate from there? It's all about the Country File weather report on Sunday! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewie Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, EamerRed said: To be honest, and I don't mean to sound like a douche, but this thread is the same every day at the moment. Log on, check forecasts as an extra day is added, debate the better model, laugh at The Nal, laugh/cry due to the update, repeat. Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Is it a case of waiting until most of them match up, or waiting until say, Sat/Sun and thinking that there's a fairly good chance that it is accurate from there? Countryfile weather report on Sunday is gospel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebella Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, EamerRed said: To be honest, and I don't mean to sound like a douche, but this thread is the same every day at the moment. Log on, check forecasts as an extra day is added, debate the better model, laugh at The Nal, laugh/cry due to the update, repeat. Thing is, at what point do we think forecasts can be taken semi-reliably? Is it a case of waiting until most of them match up, or waiting until say, Sat/Sun and thinking that there's a fairly good chance that it is accurate from there? I don't think people have completely mastered the art of forecasting the British summer weather just yet. Pack for all eventualities and you'll be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p.pete Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Nal said: Tuesday. And even then the Saturday and Sunday will be inaccurate. Yep, by Thursday morning I'm usually asking my smoothie vendor if they've seen a forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawros Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 hour ago, jfaragher said: I think, if you are looking at the Met Office website (i.e. not the UKMO model output specifically) that the single site forecasts do a bit of blending with the ECMWF-15 for the longer validity times. Also, given the extent of model swing at the moment, I'm going to call it - if we were going to have persistent frontal rain with lots of cloud cover etc, the model wouldn't be so unstable. I reckon the issue is that we are going to be looking at high pressure and convective rain (sunny with showers), much more difficult to forecast timings and locations, which is what is causing all the fuckaboutery. 1 hour ago, FuzzyDunlop said: For the first time Im starting to worry about the weather.... Ouch. These two consecutive posts ^. This is why I love this forum so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownboundTrain52 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Hawros said: These two consecutive posts ^. This is why I love this forum so much. I expect rain - in fact, I think I'm resigned to it. For me, it's more the quantity. A few showers I can get behind. Torrential turnout with risk of flooding I'm less appeased by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfaragher Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Alright, update to this post based on the EC 00Z - if anything the spread has got wider towards the end of the week... I won't do this one again, because it's a pain, but - combined 51 members from ECMWF-15, 24 from Met Office Global Ensemble (only out to D+7); 30 from GEFS and 30 from ECMWF-32. Basically, this shows mainly that the more models you compare, the closer you get to climatology! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcticz Liam Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, jfaragher said: Alright, update to this post based on the EC 00Z - if anything the spread has got wider towards the end of the week... I won't do this one again, because it's a pain, but - combined 51 members from ECMWF-15, 24 from Met Office Global Ensemble (only out to D+7); 30 from GEFS and 30 from ECMWF-32. Basically, this shows mainly that the more models you compare, the closer you get to climatology! Can you break this down for us idiots? What does it all mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Nal Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 That makes absolutely no sense. A load of abbreviations, tables and early computer game graphics that look like hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjsell Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 You need to read the original post to know what each number on the graphs represents: Here's a copy and paste 0 - Very low likelihood of any rain 1 - Low likelihood of any rain 2 - Likely some rain, but won't be much of it (<2mm/24hr ish) 3 - Very likely some rain, still not much of it (<4mm/24hr ish) 4 - Likely to get quite a bit of rain (>4mm/24hr ish) 5 - Very likely to get plenty of rain (>6mm/24hr ish) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Nal Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, mjsell said: You need to read the original post to know what each number on the graphs represents: Here's a copy and paste 0 - Very low likelihood of any rain 1 - Low likelihood of any rain 2 - Likely some rain, but won't be much of it (<2mm/24hr ish) 3 - Very likely some rain, still not much of it (<4mm/24hr ish) 4 - Likely to get quite a bit of rain (>4mm/24hr ish) 5 - Very likely to get plenty of rain (>6mm/24hr ish) Nah fuck that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arcticz Liam Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 So even the models with the highest chance of rain are still <50%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobody Interesting Posted June 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 So in 24 hours yr.no has gone from scorchio to dull, cool and damp. I love it when they have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p.pete Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, mjsell said: You need to read the original post to know what each number on the graphs represents: Here's a copy and paste 0 - Very low likelihood of any rain 1 - Low likelihood of any rain 2 - Likely some rain, but won't be much of it (<2mm/24hr ish) 3 - Very likely some rain, still not much of it (<4mm/24hr ish) 4 - Likely to get quite a bit of rain (>4mm/24hr ish) 5 - Very likely to get plenty of rain (>6mm/24hr ish) So for Sunday there's 27% chance of no rain and 19% chance of lots of rain? Sounds pretty dumb - obviously it's very clever and I appreciate the effort gone into it - but highlights well that it's all a bit pointless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Red Telephone Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Sun has disappeared from BBC Forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjsell Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, p.pete said: So for Sunday there's 27% chance of no rain and 19% chance of lots of rain? Sounds pretty dumb - obviously it's very clever and I appreciate the effort gone into it - but highlights well that it's all a bit pointless Hey i didnt do it. I just copied the key for understanding what it was actually saying. I wouldnt even know how to do a dot to dot on the topic of weather forecasts, let alone make those sorts of graphs. What I take from them is that generally speaking, on current forecasts, there is a 25% chance of no rain each day, and a 75% chance of some rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stopwn1981 Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Red Telephone said: Sun has disappeared from BBC Forecast Not too worried about the Sun - dry is the important thing. Although it does point to a worrying downturn trend-wise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stretlow Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mjsell said: Hey i didnt do it. I just copied the key for understanding what it was actually saying. I wouldnt even know how to do a dot to dot on the topic of weather forecasts, let alone make those sorts of graphs. What I take from them is that generally speaking, on current forecasts, there is a 25% chance of no rain each day, and a 75% chance of some rain. Just to point out on this percentage stuff, if you look at the days over the last few weeks that did have "some" rain predicted..... it never materialised. As the forecasts are predicting small amounts and not 100% this is what i'm clinging too.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p.pete Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mjsell said: Hey i didnt do it. I just copied the key for understanding what it was actually saying. I wouldnt even know how to do a dot to dot on the topic of weather forecasts, let alone make those sorts of graphs. What I take from them is that generally speaking, on current forecasts, there is a 25% chance of no rain each day, and a 75% chance of some rain. Have to say, I appreciate you putting the code thing alongside it so that it's readable - and I do appreciate the effort that goes into it. My guess is the huge red wedge to that left will get thicker for the relevant days as we get closer to the festival - or one of the other wedge colours will dominate if that's what we're due for at that point. When you have 6 options and they all have similar odds, it means there's no consensus. I'd definitely love to see this graph in about 4 or 5 days time @jfaragher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Keithy said: I'm an advocate of the School of Nal these days. We're fucked, it'll rain and be muddy. Anything better than that is a massive bonus. I actually think there's a good chance we may all actually die. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjsell Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Homer said: I actually think there's a good chance we may all actually die. That's the spirit. More of this please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woffy Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Homer said: I actually think there's a good chance we may all actually die. And die horribly. Probably drowned. In quicksand-like mud. 1 minute ago, mjsell said: That's the spirit. More of this please. Better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vEN._. Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Woffy said: And die horribly. Probably drowned. In quicksand-like mud. Better? I think, we all will get stuck in the quicksand-like-mud and then be burned to death by El Scorchio. Edited June 14, 2017 by vEN._. Typos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.