Weather thread 2015

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

A shit load (not scientifically accurate)

But not an assessment I'll disagree with

[JoeyT]

well played pedmills. look forward to seeing how it plays out over the next 3 weeks!

[Franky]

2010 every year until the end of time !

Word to your mother

[pedmills]

Does anyone know how many mms of rain we actually got last year? As people have said, it was vastly underestimated, but does anyone know the numbers?

According to weatheronline.co.uk Yeovil (20 miles away) had 52mm of rain over the course of the festival in 2014 and 6mm in 2013. This compares to the 19.5mm and 3.2mm forecast.

[pedmills]

According to weatheronline.co.uk Yeovil (20 miles away) had 52mm of rain over the course of the festival in 2014 and 6mm in 2013. This compares to the 19.5mm and 3.2mm forecast.

The highest forecasts in 2013 and 2014 were 6mm and 42.6mm, so in those cases the most pessimistic websites (accuweather in 2013 and weather outlook in 2014) were closest.

[LondonTom]

THE EXCEL GRAPHS HAVE BEGUN!

All of the weather websites will be included in this so don't waste your time looking them up. At this early stage the forecasts are essentially worthless but it's interesting to see how it changes from day to day.

You are my new eFestivals hero! Good bloody work!

[Ezmereldasays]

I have for a long time wondered if the gathering of 200,000 people and all their paraphernalia cause the rainy weather we have at the festival. All those bodies giving off the equivalent of a 40 watt light bulb warming the air causing it to rise above the farm and then rain.

Anyone with any weather knowledge out there who could let me know if this is a possibility?

I know it doesn't always rain and of course it won't do this year but maybe it's about the difference in temperature within the surrounding environment caused by all those bodies.

It's a thought......

Edited June 2, 2015 by Ezmereldasays

[frostypaw]

Don't you start. My mate Alex is as bad blaming arcadia for every shower at night

The weather happens miles up, what affects us was decided shortly after the weather crossed the tor then it just falls....

[Untz]

My mate Alex is as bad blaming arcadia for every shower at night

This is going to be my new thing to complain about when drunk/hungover.

[incident]

I have for a long time wondered if the gathering of 200,000 people and all their paraphernalia cause the rainy weather we have at the festival. All those bodies giving off the equivalent of a 40 watt light bulb warming the air causing it to rise above the farm and then rain.

That's probably overthinking it.

If you look at the weather for Glastonbury weekend over the last 15 years, the worst hit probably wouldn't have been 2014, 2005, 2011, or even 2007. It'd have been one of the few years 200,000 people didn't turn up in 2012.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

According to weatheronline.co.uk Yeovil (20 miles away) had 52mm of rain over the course of the festival in 2014 and 6mm in 2013. This compares to the 19.5mm and 3.2mm forecast.

Amazing work all round. I thought that the predictions of 19mm on the chart you made must have been well off from what we actually got, but didn't realise the pundits/experts were off that badly!

I suspect I'll be glued to this page for the next few weeks then...

[Tyonks]

Kasabian were well worth staying for though on that fateful Sunday!

Thought I was living in the film The Day After Tomorrow. Spent a lot of the day in the wine/champagne bar cowering from the rain.

[grgcmnng]

my friend at the met office has just messaged me this "drier and warmer than usual conditions appear more likely end of june, most notably western areas".

the weather is turning for us

[Tyonks]

my friend at the met office has just messaged me this "drier and warmer than usual conditions appear more likely end of june, most notably western areas".

the weather is turning for us

I prefer using reverse psychology with Mother nature,

so my best friends, brother's, mate has told me its going to be absolute shite.

[CaledonianGonzo]

my friend at the met office has just messaged me this "drier and warmer than usual conditions appear more likely end of june, most notably western areas".

the weather is turning for us

[LynseyDiva]

It'll be sunny. It's always sunny at Glasto. Apart from when it is torrential rain. As long as it doesn't water my Brothers cider down, it's all good. Loving the graphs though!

[The 38 year old virgin]

http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/yeovil/ba21-3/extended-weather-forecast/325652

Yes please

[Spindles]

Satellite imagery looking good at the moment, pattern changing. I miss the days when the met office had 7 or 14 days worth of imagery that you could animate though, was much easier to see trends.

[st dan]

http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/yeovil/ba21-3/extended-weather-forecast/325652

Yes please

These reports always make me chuckle to myself. I love how they are predicting just one day if rain on 13th July, in the middle of glorious sunny spells.

This far in advance its nothing more than guesswork. I don't have any confidence they can even predict the weather tomorrow, as everything they've said this week has been wrong.

[pedmills]

I've got some new rainfall figures for previous years (the dotted grey lines). I don't know how much to trust them - as 2011 felt a lot wetter than 2009 - but they are the best I've got.

[The Nal]

http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/yeovil/ba21-3/extended-weather-forecast/325652

Yes please

Really? Rain Tuesday and Wednesday and thunderstorms all day Saturday?!

"periods of rain, cloudy with showers, considerable cloudiness, overcast with thunderstorms"

Thats 2007 weather. We're fucked.

Edited June 3, 2015 by The Nal

[JoeyT]

Just going to put it out there that the folks over on the netweather website (the forum part) are pretty positive regarding high pressure towards the end of June..

Edit: these are posts made by people who love to monitor weather charts as much as we love to talk about Glastonbury so they know what they're talking about.

The GFS this morning shows settled/dry weather for the uk next week with temps 16/17c for the South, Cooler the further North with temp in the teens and single minima for the far North with frost at night. It will feel much more pleasant than of late. Before a slack Northerly of sorts by the 13/14th. Towards the end of the run High Pressure does show to try and push over the uk once again around the 17th..

ECM is also clearly heading in the same direction towards the end of the run, so as you say why discount it or fail to recognise it....the possibility exists. As I said yesterday the retrogressive signal remains fairly constant, but the longer term GFS is already starting to point towards a less potent and shorter unsettled spell, with pressure building once again from the SW as we go into the 2nd half of the month.

Edited June 3, 2015 by JoeyT

[Mr November]

Really? Rain Tuesday and Wednesday and thunderstorms all day Saturday?!

"periods of rain, cloudy with showers, considerable cloudiness, overcast with thunderstorms"

Thats 2007 weather. We're fucked.

Couple of people in my group have been saying this is a good forecast - I think there's too much yellow in the pictures so they think there'll be loads of sun.

Very much 2007 weather.

OK yeah, I'll take this:

Edited June 3, 2015 by Mr November

[sloseph]

You know what I’ve noticed, every time I look at glastocam it's bright, sunny and dry

I’m taking that as a sign

[ghandi]

Really? Rain Tuesday and Wednesday and thunderstorms all day Saturday?!

"periods of rain, cloudy with showers, considerable cloudiness, overcast with thunderstorms"

Thats 2007 weather. We're fucked.

I'm loving the reverse psychology ; )