Weather thread 2015

[frostypaw]

Ha that means nothing to me. We expecting a J10 drop tonight?

Less rainfall = good

[lisa93]

Thnx, yes that's given a dose of optimism!

[Glastonlocal]

Less rainfall = good

Oh good. Nice things are nice :-)

[Mr Splodge]

My head hurts.

[elbongo]

I can't stands this ere wether throop

[GlastoSimon]

Theoretically this is true, but in 2011 it belted it down in the preceding weeks and on the Wednesday and Friday, yet it was still pretty dry again by the Sunday. Though that was a warm day.

 

Just as the site churns up when it rains, I feel the site recovers and the ground hardens quicker when there's lots of people walking on it in the sun. As you say, 2011 and to an extent 2014 recovered v. quickly with a bit of sun. 

 

For those asking for an image...

 

 

Imagine the high pressure sections pushing in from the west, and improving as the fest goes on - even better by the Sunday (lots of red over the South West  ). In the 06z run there was a huge bit of green which engulfed Somerset from Thursday onwards. 

Edited June 15, 2015 by GlastoSimon

[TheNewUnion]

 I feel the site recovers and the ground hardens quicker when there's lots of people walking on it in the sun. As you say, 2011 and to an extent 2014 recovered v. quickly with a bit of sun. 

 

 

As it dries it takes on a really peculiar springy quality. Like that soft tarmac stuff they have in kids playgrounds. Very strange.

[frostypaw]

Oh good. Nice things are nice :-)

I Do like nice things. They really are... well. Nice.

It's not as scary a graph as it looks, it just superimposes several runs of the model. The more the lines coincide the more likely a thing is so it helps by not just saying "rain at this time" but how likely that rain is and what range of rainfall you could see

[briddj]

Theoretically this is true, but in 2011 it belted it down in the preceding weeks and on the Wednesday and Friday, yet it was still pretty dry again by the Sunday. Though that was a warm day.

 

Yep. Mud cannot survive above 21C so even if it rains quite a bit, if it is warm (and even more so if it is sunny) the site will actually dry up rapidly even if it might be muddy for a while.

 

Remember the site was an absolute quagmire through to Saturday afternoon in 2011 - our campers had to be towed into the site by a tractor. Literally feet of mud throughout the site. Then on the Sunday everyone got up and you have thought there hadn't been any rain for ages.

Edited June 15, 2015 by briddj

[jobleakley1]

It's gone backwards to a rating of 4.5 from 3 in the last blog.

That's a mixture of Phil Jones and Haim

[Starchild771]

It's gone backwards to a rating of 4.5 from 3 in the last blog.

That's a mixture of Phil Jones and Haim

Hmm.. looks like we are in for a have a rollercoaster ride.

[stopwn1981]

When is the next jackone report and how often are they now until the festival?

[Keithy]

It's gone backwards to a rating of 4.5 from 3 in the last blog.

That's a mixture of Phil Jones and Haim

Slipping back into the 4's. Fours!!!

[Gnomicide]

[bennyhana22]

 

Beaker's my favourite Muppet™

 

Apropos of bugger all, obviously.

 

Ben 

[GlastoSimon]

When is the next jackone report and how often are they now until the festival?

 

Should be every day now, if not every other day for the next couple of reports. 

 

I didn't think it was as bad as it could have been to be honest, so not too worried at the moment. The important bit is where the forecast now goes over the next few days, especially with that area of low pressure which appeared in the 06z run, and we should be a whole lot clearer by the weekend. 

[Porcelina]

Can we get a perma JACKONE link somewhere if possible? 

 

Done: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83119-glastonbury-festival-24th-28th-june-2015/page-2#entry3215768

Edited June 15, 2015 by Porcelina

[Clareno7]

i'm following this guy on twitter

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/events.html

 

[st dan]

i'm following this guy on twitter

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/events.html

 

Thanks .. Just gave it a watch, but wish i hadn't bothered!!

 

Not looking very good at all right now! 

[Clareno7]

Well....he did say there's no trend yet. I'm no expert but hopefully that means they still can't tell.

[st dan]

Well....he did say there's no trend yet. I'm no expert but hopefully that means they still can't tell.

 

True, but if that/s the case and they really can't tell yet, then i do wonder why people go to all the effort of producing and analysing these charts only to then turn around and say, ".. Although, we don't actually know yet sorry!"

[frostypaw]

Ad impressions.

[willutalk]

I have to say, the two nights I was at Download it was pretty hefty rain, especially during Slipknot (one could ring out my shirt) ! The weather can't be as about bad as that. It really did wang it down.

I'm bracing myself for rain and misery, so when the sun appears it'd feel heavenly.

[fur_q]

Well....he did say there's no trend yet. I'm no expert but hopefully that means they still can't tell.

To an extent yes the model outputs have been all over the place the last couple of days so, I did say Agee days back that I thought in general the GFS models can tell us to some degree about the next two weather systems affecting the uk and that we'd start to have a clearer idea by now as the weekends low pressure system has passed. But reading all today's outputs I'd say we're still no clearer.

[GlastoSimon]

True, but if that/s the case and they really can't tell yet, then i do wonder why people go to all the effort of producing and analysing these charts only to then turn around and say, ".. Although, we don't actually know yet sorry!"

 

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