Weather

[A Guy Called Matt]

Yeah. One totally dry festie in 8 years.

Think this year could be very good. Certainly not going to be a mudbath at any stage by the looks of it. Could be the perfect weather, not too hot, little rain, no wind, no mud.

Obviously not enough praising going on then LOL

That said, signs at the moment are very very promising - but still to early to be sure.

[CHRLY]

This is why NFR NFC. I came back to Glastonbury in 2007 after a couple of years off.

You have to laugh......

That does look like good fun!

NFS NFC

[frostypaw]

2003 wasn't totally dry, it rained two or three times but never got past a bit of surface scum-mud. It takes quite a lot to mess things up. I doubt last year's rain would have done anything if it had been 12 hrs earlier, even 12 hrs later would have helped - it was the flood of incoming people that churned it all up so badly

In 04 it went back and forth coming on seven times I swear. We were playing in jazzworld you could pour a pint on the floor, turn that square foot or two into cratered muddy mess and watch it dry out and flatten to normal in less than an hour - ridiculous thing to do i know however we were very very drunk at the time.

[jeffie]

ridiculous thing to do i know however we were very very drunk at the time.

Frostypaw - you are Rowley Birkin

[The Nal]

Obviously not enough praising going on then LOL

That said, signs at the moment are very very promising - but still to early to be sure.

So this NRNC campaign is a complete failure then. Please stop ruining everyones festival!

[jeffie]

So this NRNC campaign is a complete failure then. Please stop ruining everyones festival!

Nah, it's this lot doubting all the time

[The Nal]

Nah, it's this lot doubting all the time

No its you lot with your mindless positivity!

Stop being so happy! You're making everyone miserable!

[A Guy Called Matt]

No its you lot with your mindless positivity!

Stop being so happy! You're making everyone miserable!

LOLasm

[Woffy]

No its you lot with your mindless positivity!

Stop being so happy! You're making everyone miserable!

I do sympathise to some extent.

The self-righteousness of the pious...

...and fucking cyclists...

...can grate somewhat.

Fucking happy people. Bastards.

Empiricism and science never created great art.

[alibear]

So Accuweather is predicting 1mm on Wednesday (25th) and 17mm on the Saturday, with most of that falling at night. Did someone say 10mm fell on Thursday last year? Do you think 17mm clear up as quickly as the rain did last year or is that enough to cause a bit of a mudbath? Hopefully things will change before then.

(I'm a bit panicky about the rain as my hubby is coming too and he uses a wheelchair, which do not mix well with mud, as we found out in 2013!)

[sinhala]

Is there anything to be said for saying another mass ?

[tumbles]

So Accuweather is predicting 1mm on Wednesday (25th) and 17mm on the Saturday, with most of that falling at night. Did someone say 10mm fell on Thursday last year? Do you think 17mm clear up as quickly as the rain did last year or is that enough to cause a bit of a mudbath? Hopefully things will change before then.

(I'm a bit panicky about the rain as my hubby is coming too and he uses a wheelchair, which do not mix well with mud, as we found out in 2013!)

17mm overnight, wouldn't be much of a problem at all and probably dry by midday. I personally think it was more than 10mm last year on the Thursday.. it rained constantly for 6+ hours.

[Swine_Glasto2014]

It's over a week away, predictions of mm of rain and temperatures should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Two weeks ago in Swindon they forcast terrible weather on the Saturday, amber rain and wind for the morning and afternoon. That was the friday night, it rained for about half hour early Saturday and was lovely the rest of weekend.

It's all bollox.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Swine_Glasto2014

[Swine_Glasto2014]

17mm overnight, wouldn't be much of a problem at all and probably dry by midday. I personally think it was more than 10mm last year on the Thursday.. it rained constantly for 6+ hours.

And caught me out, I got soaked

[Midnight Man]

And caught me out, I got soaked

I thought that one was well flagged up wasn't it? I spent a few very pleasant hours in the bar watching it bucket down with the (near) certainty that there would be no more wet for the weekend.

If it's going to rain, Thursday is the day for it!

[scaryclaireyfairy]

About the German/French thing, I think it was because there was a threat of a finger of low pressure coming from France. Or maybe a high they weren't sharing. There was definitely a French finger though. Meanwhile some German weather office predicted a heat wave. Add some World Cup and positive = German.

[alibear]

It was only really muddy along pathways with a heavy footfall too; by Friday morning it was fine once you wandered away from the path areas. Nothing to worry about! :-)

[Swine_Glasto2014]

I thought that one was well flagged up wasn't it? I spent a few very pleasant hours in the bar watching it bucket down with the (near) certainty that there would be no more wet for the weekend.

If it's going to rain, Thursday is the day for it!

I don't usually watch the weather like I have so far this year

[stevieweevil]

About the German/French thing, I think it was because there was a threat of a finger of low pressure coming from France. Or maybe a high they weren't sharing. There was definitely a French finger though. Meanwhile some German weather office predicted a heat wave. Add some World Cup and positive = German.

I remember the french finger of 2010! It was definitely a good thing though, not a cold finger. This thread needs Steve Murr back!

[fred quimby]

I assume we are all following the netweather Glastonbury blog

sorry if it has been posted

Summary

Positives
The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to or over the UK


Neutral
The ECM runs keep High Pressure close to but not over the UK.
The 12Hz Ensembles are a bit better than the 06Hz run

Negatives
Both Operational GFS runs have low presure and heavy rain forecast to start the festival, but drying up over the weekend in both cases.
The 06Hz GEFS Ensembles look wet and unsettled for the festival, especially to start.

A further downward trend today, and back up to 6.0 on the 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

With today's charts indicating the real chance of mud bath conditions to start the festival, although this should dry out very quickly. It is also very interesting to see if the current trend of low pressure edging up from the South and South east in the run-up to the festival is maintained.
Going Forward

I'll update the NOAA upper chart animation tomorrow, and some of the ensembles on Wednesday, probably the rainfall one.

[kalifire]

A couple of weeks ago, there were widespread reports of storms in Somerset even less than a week before they were scheduled to happen. They never did and it was actually quite lovely.

We'll know what the weather is like when we get there. My experience is that unless they're certain it's going to rain, it's usually better than predicted.

Edited June 17, 2014 by kalifire

[stuartbert two hats]

I assume we are all following the netweather Glastonbury blog

sorry if it has been posted

Summary

Positives

The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to or over the UK

Neutral

The ECM runs keep High Pressure close to but not over the UK.

The 12Hz Ensembles are a bit better than the 06Hz run

Negatives

Both Operational GFS runs have low presure and heavy rain forecast to start the festival, but drying up over the weekend in both cases.

The 06Hz GEFS Ensembles look wet and unsettled for the festival, especially to start.

A further downward trend today, and back up to 6.0 on the 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

With today's charts indicating the real chance of mud bath conditions to start the festival, although this should dry out very quickly. It is also very interesting to see if the current trend of low pressure edging up from the South and South east in the run-up to the festival is maintained.

Going Forward

I'll update the NOAA upper chart animation tomorrow, and some of the ensembles on Wednesday, probably the rainfall one.

In case anyone doesn't realise, this is yesterday's blog post - the expectations are for an improvement in the outlook later today.

[The 38 year old virgin]

Is there anything to be said for saying another mass ?

A perfectly timed reminder of my fave FT episode

[FuzzyDunlop]

Is there anything to be said for saying another mass ?

That would be an ecuminical matter

[Glastonlocal]

The mirror has just cursed us!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-glastonbury-wimbledon-bathed-3710996