The Weather Thread 2024

[JeniHimdrix]

This thread is a total rollercoaster and not a totally fun one, though totally addictive!

 

What I don't quite understand is why is the met office forecast is consistently at odds with these doom prophecies?! Even seemingly at odds with it's own raw model output from a few pages back?

 

At worst it's showing 30% chance of rain over Wednesday Thursday and Friday with a sunshine and clouds symbol. Am I wishful thinking/missing something?

 

To put it in context I always use the met office to decide whether or not to go out rock climbing or choose between venues and would not hesitate to chance a day's climbing given the current forecast on the met office website.

Edited June 21, 2024 by JeniHimdrix

[briddj]

16 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

Pretty awful Wednesday and Thursday, then basically dry the rest. Temps low too.

 Weds ain't that bad, by new standards.

[jarviscocker]

Just now, briddj said:

 Weds ain't that bad, by new standards.

If we’re sacrificing a day, definitely rather Thursday than Wednesday. NFR though, please. 

[behindthebunhouse]

20 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

I truly feel like we're doing ourselves a diservice by relying on the GFS runs 😂

 

 

Exactly, it is all soothsaying and statistical woo-woo

[hboss]

10 minutes ago, JeniHimdrix said:

This thread is a total rollercoaster and not a totally fun one, though totally addictive!

 

What I don't quite understand is why is the met office forecast is consistently at odds with these doom prophecies?! Even seemingly at odds with it's own raw model output from a few pages back?

 

At worst it's showing 30% chance of rain over Wednesday Thursday and Friday with a sunshine and clouds symbol. Am I wishful thinking/missing something?

 

To put it in context I always use the met office to decide whether or not to go out rock climbing or choose between venues and would not hesitate to chance a day's climbing given the current forecast on the met office website.

Your totally right here. However, the met office always leaves it to the last minute before it updates. The models as agreed with many weather experts online are really unreliable right now as soo many models are saying different things, none of them are consistent. 

[RaphPH]

The hilarity of the heatwave kicking in again on Monday after festival 

[Rabocse]

This mornings run is very different again!

sending the low down in to Spain and keeping us dry on Wednesday. The models are really struggling with this setup and it’s still all to play for IMO 

[Rabocse]

Hmmm… showing a bit of rain later in the day Wednesday but at least dry for gates open. GFS looking better than ECM at this point 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

God this thread has fallen off a cliff...much like my 20 year school reunion last night!

[CaledonianGonzo]

Think I'd actually prefer to base my entire pre-festival mood on a 7 day out GFS run than go to a school reunion.

[stevieweevil]

Model runs are all over the place at the moment with no real confidence of which way things will go beyond Monday at the moment. Pretty much anything is still on the cards. Hang in there for now!

[CaledonianGonzo]

Twas ever thus.

[Euphoricape]

Big upgrade this morning.  Dry barring few showers Wednesday and Thursday. 

Edited June 22, 2024 by Euphoricape

[JB3]

1 hour ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

God this thread has fallen off a cliff...much like my 20 year school reunion last night!

Forget the weather, I need to know about last night 🤔

[AdrianH]

Major change from the 12hz GFS. The initial low pressure on Wednesday goes south like it was toying with days ago and we get the hotter temperatures 

 

UKMO supports this scenario too - low pressure goes south

Edited June 22, 2024 by AdrianH

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

1 minute ago, JB3 said:

Forget the weather, I need to know about last night 🤔

Lol! Someone ended up needing CPR and then something kicked off with the police... Couldnt write it... 🤯 

[Aragorn]

6 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Big upgrade this morning.  Dry barring few showers Wednesday and Thursday. 

 

Hmmm GFS has showers Wednesday but Thursday looks grim

 

 

[AdrianH]

Will see what the ensembles and ECM say but if that initial feature is going south, it might open the doors for a completely dry and warm festival if that second low can be deflected north. 

[AliceR]

[Avalon_Fields]

17 minutes ago, AdrianH said:

Will see what the ensembles and ECM say but if that initial feature is going south, it might open the doors for a completely dry and warm festival if that second low can be deflected north. 

Sorry, no optimism allowed on this thread, it’s for masochists only don’t you know! 

[JB3]

25 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Lol! Someone ended up needing CPR and then something kicked off with the police... Couldnt write it... 🤯 

Hahaha, so the ex school colleagues have progressed and become leaders in society then?. Love it 😂

[Ayrshire Chris]

The met office, in which I trust, is tentatively showing an improvement on past forecasts.  🤞

[AdrianH]

16 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Sorry, no optimism allowed on this thread, it’s for masochists only don’t you know! 

 

Many apologies! - I didn't realise this thread was for suffering only!

[CaledonianGonzo]

2 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

The met office, in which I trust, is tentatively showing an improvement on past forecasts.  🤞

UKMO has been consistently stable

 

Edit: at least on the trial data

Edited June 22, 2024 by CaledonianGonzo

[Dave_c]

The Met office app looks swell until Friday, I'm going with that.