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The Weather Thread 2024


airwaves

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7 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

I think we all need to accept now its a wet one it's still too early, every single run since Wednesday has shown rain at least 2 days of the festival. the runs since Wednesday aren't 100% accurate and the ensembles show varying stories, plus theres actually 11 different models out there displaying completely varying data.

 

Gutted for my pal as its her first one, its hard to convince someone that watching the sunset from the hill in driving rain is as good as 20c.

 

Even the metoffice say within their 1-2 day forecast its still not possible to pinpoint where rain is going to fall - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/about-forecasts#:~:text=Three- to five-day forecast,severe weather in this period.

 

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sh*t conditions are definitely not set in stone.

 

I think its pretty certain we are going to see something less settled on Wednesday now but if the path of the low is favourable then it could merely be a period of drizzle followed by an improving picture towards the weekend.

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7 minutes ago, LeFreak said:

How much rain would we need for the ground to churn up pretty badly? It's going to be wet at points, I can get over that. But spending 5 days trudging around in the muck will be harder to accept.. 

more than 25mm in a 24hr period would be my concern level; anything less than that should be fine, and anything more would have me prepping the wellies from the back of the car. Either way though it’s crack on.
Bearded had 70mm of rain in about 36hrs! 

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Just been checking "The Weather Thread 2023" - can confirm I'll be clocking off this thread haha. Unless 2023 was actually really wet (I wasn't there), essentially none of these predictions are relevant even until the Tues/Weds of the festival. This is to say that rain was forecast all of Sat/Sun then on the Tuesday etc. So seems like a good idea to pack for all occasions 🙂 

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1 minute ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Trying to recall a recent year when - 5 days out - we were locked in for a good forecast with a settled unshifting and persistent high guaranteeing good weather.  I just can't recall one recently.

Don't even recall it being a cert in 2010 to be honest. 

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4 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

He's the only person predicting it'll be nice so let's hope he's right.

let’s remember that neither he nor anyone on this thread is ‘predicting’ anything - we’re chewing over the individual outputs of computer models, and none of us are remotely qualified to make head or tails of them or put them in their proper context. Nobody has the resources or credentials to actually forecast anything 

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