When will this shit end?

[balthazarstarbuck]

2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Guess the answer is vaccination. As more and more get single doses (less of an impact) and second doses (more of an impact), transmission will hopefully decrease as the virus hits a larger wall of people that have some degree of immunity and will not then transmit it onwards.

Totally that. Today is a (relatively) high day for cases and a low day for vaccinations. And we jabbed 40 times as many people as caught it.

Assuming no vaccine escape, there is going to be a (annoyingly imperceptible) point where it runs out of road, without wishing to go all March 2020 and bang on about h*** i*******.

[Ozanne]

 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I got downvoted to hell for saying the 21st of June was still 5 days away - in response to people saying the modelling was wrong. As it does look like we will be at that figure if not more by next week.

Seems like it's one rule for some and another for others in here.

The modelling was wrong though? If the modelling was correct we should be at hundreds of deaths and thousands of hosptialisations ages ago? 

You probably should be taking your own advice and not jump to conclusions 🙂 

 

[hodgey123]

5 minutes ago, st dan said:

I guess, but I was assuming that at 42.2m single dosed adults right now, we’d be seeing a slower spread than we are now. Although the current rise in cases does seem largely to be in the younger unvaccinated populations at present. 

But 42.2m single doses still leaves almost 30m people who have not had a dose. Some of those will have had COVID so have natural immunity, but large swathes of them will not and can catch it. The virus still has road to run in at the moment.

[MrBarry465]

Just now, Havors said:

The modelling was wrong though? If the modelling was correct we should be at hundreds of deaths and thousands of hosptialisations ages ago? 

You probably should be taking your own advice and not jump to conclusions 🙂 

 

I'm talking about people who were in a frenzy yesterday over the 7k cases.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Guess the answer is vaccination. As more and more get single doses (less of an impact) and second doses (more of an impact), transmission will hopefully decrease as the virus hits a larger wall of people that have some degree of immunity and will not then transmit it onwards.

yep, which is the main argument for the delay.

[hodgey123]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yep, which is the main argument for the delay.

I was against the delay, largely as I think the hospitalisation link whilst not completely severed will turn out to be drastically weakened, but these case numbers can spiral quickly and I am struggling to fathom how the government will justify reopening on 19 July when the numbers are likely to be at least double what they are now (at best). 

[Crazyfool01]

Time out folks … some not encouraging growth today … Remember we all actually want the same thing …. We just have different ideas on how to get there … 

[Ozanne]

Just now, hodgey123 said:

I was against the delay, largely as I think the hospitalisation link whilst not completely severed will turn out to be drastically weakened, but these case numbers can spiral quickly and I am struggling to fathom how the government will justify reopening on 19 July when the numbers are likely to be at least double what they are now (at best). 

If we do reopen their argument will be that we will have (or should have) fully vaccinated 2/3rds of the adult population by then which should mean serious illness is kept low. However it is also the case that if cases go so high hospital admissions will be high as a % of that anyway.

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I'm talking about people who were in a frenzy yesterday over the 7k cases.

its was 9k yesterday... 😉 

and two wrongs dont make a right... 😄 

Im just joking now by the way haha

[MrBarry465]

Just now, Havors said:

its was 9k yesterday... 😉 

and two wrongs dont make a right... 😄 

Im just joking now by the way haha

Thats cool mate, just feel ive been harshly downvoted on occasion by a few.

But no bother.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

If we do reopen their argument will be that we will have (or should have) fully vaccinated 2/3rds of the adult population by then which should mean serious illness is kept low. However it is also the case that if cases go so high hospital admissions will be high as a % of that anyway.

Im keeping my fingers crossed their is a ceiling on the hospital admission and the ratio drops even lower. In theory it should if the vaccine works. 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[hodgey123]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

You have to take a leap of faith at some point... that is the answer

I agree! I am just saying I don't know how they are going to spin it. Ozanne is probably right, but it's going to be a hard sell and i guess I am just sceptical that there will be another delay. 

[Havors]

Just now, MrBarry465 said:

Thats cool mate, just feel ive been harshly downvoted on occasion by a few.

But no bother.

You probably have. We all have at some point haha

Only takes one sentence to be taken out of context or miss the sarcasm etc and people jump all over it. I wouldnt sweat your up or downs they dont mean much. 

[Chapple12345]

If we're really that concerned what are the chances of them overturning the previous decision and allowing under 40s to have Astrazenica? It would allow us to jab far more people and hopefully outpace the virus 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I think it must be a sad world when you are sat there hoping cases, hospitalisations and deaths go up just so you can claim some sort of chufty badge 

No one wants cases to rise … we all want an end to this shit equally … so me you oz fray Bob Havors stevie mr Barry everyone actually wants the same thing and have struggled in different ways throughout … We all want this shit to end 

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

No one wants cases to rise … we all want an end to this shit equally … so me you oz fray Bob Havors stevie mr Barry everyone actually wants the same thing and have struggled in different ways throughout … We all want this shit to end 

Going through the data and everything else in a weird way gives me something is a way for me to cope through the pandemic. Plus I find it interesting. It might sound weird but that's me 😀

Edited June 17, 2021 by Ozanne

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

I was against the delay, largely as I think the hospitalisation link whilst not completely severed will turn out to be drastically weakened, but these case numbers can spiral quickly and I am struggling to fathom how the government will justify reopening on 19 July when the numbers are likely to be at least double what they are now (at best). 

well, maybe we'll know more by then of the link between cases and hospitalisations, and will have had a chance to vaccinate more people to help prevent both cases and hospitalisations/deaths getting too high. But, yeah, could be a big decision for Johnson...I think he'll go for it but keep wfh and masks some places, and have tests and/or vaccine proof for various events.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Havors said:

You probably have. We all have at some point haha

Only takes one sentence to be taken out of context or miss the sarcasm etc and people jump all over it. I wouldnt sweat your up or downs they dont mean much. 

Don't think I've ever been downvoted.

[balthazarstarbuck]

 

9 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

But 42.2m single doses still leaves almost 30m people who have not had a dose. Some of those will have had COVID so have natural immunity, but large swathes of them will not and can catch it. The virus still has road to run in at the moment.

My fag packet maths puts it around 24 million unvaccinated, of which around 14 million are ineligible for any jab at this point anyway. In terms of jabs to go with current parameters, I’d say we’re closer to 10 million (not all of whom will go for it).

More than happy to be shot down on any of the above.

[Radiochicken]

1 hour ago, philipsteak said:

You'd be properly pissed off if you were one off the 53.

Also, tricky conversation with the boss. 'Covid, is it? Again? Is this like when you went to your grans funeral for the 3rd time? '

I’ve got a friend of a friend (sound dodge but it’s real 😂) who had it average first time, then re-caught it a few months later with all the horrid long covid symptoms. He’s 27! Unlucky bloke. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

I think some people are just trolling and point scoring to be honest.

Not so sure Barry … sometimes maybe 🤔 but it’s quite hard to differentiate when it’s just words on a page … without seeing the person or knowing what’s behind the post … a few words wrongly typed can sometimes make a post very different and the context in which it’s taken … 

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Don't think I've ever been downvoted.

You asking for it there sonny jim?! haha 

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 

We are opened and mixing so much at the moment anyway.  And lots aren't following the rules now.  The extra number of cases we fear may not happen compared to the current burn 

It's mixing indoors that will send things over the edge at pubs and other venues like clubs.