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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, Havors said:

Calm down petal. For someone who was arguing the finer points of exponential growth it's pointless debating any material differences between ten thousand and tens of thousands as statistics can be misleading.

The only point I was making was that Covid deaths have in no way been equitable to flu deaths, but the flu death figure on average seems relatively low on an average yearly basis to what I had previously believed.

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51 minutes ago, Copperface said:

I keep seeing this thing about a vast number of flu deaths annually and wasn't sure. Had a look and we don't have 10s of thousands of deaths annually. To me that would indicate 20k plus as a norm.

Even in the 2008/9 flu outbreak there were apparently 14,222 deaths attributed to flu. The lowest was 4,253 in 2007/8.(E&W only)

128,000 odd kind of shades those figures.

For the geeks, here's the model used:

equation image

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3859479/

Looks all Greek to me

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24 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

I was thinking about this and wondering how many lives could be saved by countries not allowing their own citizens to leave their country when variants emerge where they live, rather than focusing on stopping people coming into their country when a variants emerges elsewhere. Must be a massive impact. Think of the delta variant (India) or alpha variant (uk). If we, or India, stopped our citizens travelling from our own countries elsewhere then I wonder how that would have helped the spread of those variants to other countries. I suppose that's the problem, we are far more interested in our own, or our own nation's welfare, than the common good globally. That's human nature I suppose and has always been the case. Interesting thought though

On this I don't see how relying on 2 vaccines to allow people abroad without quarantining when they get back is particularly helpful. When the biggest worry is a variant appearing that evades the vaccine, its pinning a lot on other country's honesty with cases/level of testing/luck to just let people breeze in and out on the strength of the vaccine, considering if the worst happened by definition it wouldn't be good enough. 

At the very least make them take a test when they get back so you can sequence any positives to check. Free test obviously 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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Saw this in the festivals thread but figured it's worth posting here too

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/will-latitude-festival-2021-go-ahead-8065770

"They basically have to underwrite our insurance and the DCMS are telling us they are really close to getting the Treasury to sign off.

is a promising quote! 

(From Melvin Benn on Virgin radio this morning)

Edited by efcfanwirral
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Just been chatting to a friend, who caught COVID at a hen do on the weekend and shes been really ill all week, knocked her for six!

Apparently the girl that gave it to everyone has been jabbed twice as well.....

Has there been any solid evidence around the delta variant and the vaccines?

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Just now, MrBarry465 said:

Just been chatting to a friend, who caught COVID at a hen do on the weekend and shes been really ill all week, knocked her for six!

Apparently the girl that gave it to everyone has been jabbed twice as well.....

Has there been any solid evidence around the delta variant and the vaccines?

Vaccine prevents it affecting you badly and a higher resistance against it, not you getting it and spreading it (I thought)

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1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

Just been chatting to a friend, who caught COVID at a hen do on the weekend and shes been really ill all week, knocked her for six!

Apparently the girl that gave it to everyone has been jabbed twice as well.....

Has there been any solid evidence around the delta variant and the vaccines?

you spreading anti vax stuff now?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Copperface said:

I keep seeing this thing about a vast number of flu deaths annually and wasn't sure. Had a look and we don't have 10s of thousands of deaths annually. To me that would indicate 20k plus as a norm.

Even in the 2008/9 flu outbreak there were apparently 14,222 deaths attributed to flu. The lowest was 4,253 in 2007/8.(E&W only)

128,000 odd kind of shades those figures.

For the geeks, here's the model used:

equation image

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3859479/

Has anyone questioned that model yet ? 

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5 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Just been chatting to a friend, who caught COVID at a hen do on the weekend and shes been really ill all week, knocked her for six!

Apparently the girl that gave it to everyone has been jabbed twice as well.....

Has there been any solid evidence around the delta variant and the vaccines?

I've always taken it that you can catch and spread after two as enough people have said you can, including the briefing scientists. They always said vastly reduced chance of symptoms but effect on the transmission was unknown

and I guess we'll only find out properly in winter when conditions are best for it to spread 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

That’s what I was thinking … I saw the model and thought no chance I’m attempting to go further 🙂 

Back to the Daily Mail and Telegraph headlines then...........

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37 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Just been chatting to a friend, who caught COVID at a hen do on the weekend and shes been really ill all week, knocked her for six!

Apparently the girl that gave it to everyone has been jabbed twice as well.....

Has there been any solid evidence around the delta variant and the vaccines?

 

E34684AA-408B-4A70-810E-35037A832A8E.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Lisbon first continental European Hotspot for the Delta with 75% of all cases the last few day in Portugal. Therefore this weekend no travels to and from Lisbon will be allowed. 

 

1 hour ago, Radiochicken said:

Speculation: Champions League final.

 

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

If that's the case every country needs to shut us out til variant vaccines are in 

Not just the CL final (which was in Porto, not Lisbon) the general exodus of Brits out to Portugal is likely responsible imo.

 

Although I’m sure you needed a PCR test to get in so maybe not. 

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