When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

Boris Johnson sees nothing to suggest delay to easing, No 10 indicates

Boris Johnson sees nothing in current coronavirus data to suggest the end to coronavirus lockdown restrictions will need to be delayed past 21 June, Downing Street has indicated.

According to PA Media, a No 10 spokesman was asked about the prime minister’s plans amid the warnings over the spread of the variant first detected in India, which now accounts for three quarters of new infections in the UK.

Over the past few days, a number of government scientific advisers have gone on the record to urge caution over the end to lockdown. There have been repeated warnings that the country is possibly in the early stages of a third wave of pandemic.

PA Media quoted the prime minister’s spokesman as saying:

“I was going to point to what the PM said on Thursday.

“The prime minister has said on a number of occasions that we haven’t seen anything in the data but we will continue to look at the data, we will continue to look at the latest scientific evidence as we move through June towards 21 June.”

Last Thursday, Johnson said “I don’t see anything currently in the data” to divert from the 21 June. But he did concede that “we may need to wait” for more data.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Note the Zero COVID FAKE SAGE obsessives (Deepti Gurdasani and Pagel) on the attack in the replies because it doesn't fit with their panic laden doom mongering.

Deepti Gurdasani  isn't in indie sage etc etc forever.

[DeanoL]

 

On 5/27/2021 at 6:58 PM, Barry Fish said:

One thing we have surely learnt - if you need to break - do it now! 

I wonder if this is true anymore. It certainly was true when there wasn't an exit plan, but now with vaccines we're just racing to get ahead of the virus. If we go back to the metric of preventing overwhelming the NHS, and we put aside the metric of "not letting people die" (which is harsh but it's where the thinking comes from) then the NHS has capacity right now, so get people catching COVID and going in and getting treated, being okay, and coming out with immunity - especially in those who can't/won't have the vaccine. It's not like before where hospitalisation would always go up without lockdown. The vaccines provide an exit plan in this case.

On 5/30/2021 at 10:16 AM, efcfanwirral said:

This is my concern now - that thread implies that any further easing could cause unacceptable pressure on the NHS, basically because its underfunded and any additional pressure is too much. 

My takeaway from that is that covid just in general on top of anything else pushes those hospitals to a certain level of pressure, and that if we want to "protect the NHS" its really best if further easing was to wait til everyone has had two vaccines. So that's this time next year once you factor winter in. 

I'm not sure how you get from a few more months (September) to Winter (December) to "this time next year" (May). There's loads of extra time in there. But the reality is COVID is loads more transmissible than other seasonal - that's why it's a problem. I think now we've seen the public will accept some measure we may see movement on the flu front this winter but it'll be all non-invasive measures - they'll be pushing vaccination again, encouraging people to think about hands/space/face, masks for when you're on public transport or ill, not hugging granny or going into work if you're ill, etc. 

Lockdowns aren't particularly effective against flu as it's not that transmissible.

On 5/30/2021 at 9:45 AM, zero000 said:

I seem to remember discussions about this at the start of the pandemic which were quickly quashed as the virus looked like it was natural rather than lab designed. 
 

I guess it’s a possibility that it was a natural virus they detected and were culturing, and it escaped somehow.

If China did cover it up, the implications are massive and worrying. 

I've been reading Failures of State by a couple of Times journalists the last few days. The first couple of chapters on the origins are really interesting. There's some damn weird stuff going on with China and all this. It started in Wuhan, of all the places in the world, it started in the place that contains the world's leading labs for the study of coronaviruses. Could just be a coincidence but it's one of hell of a coincidence.

Then there's the fact that the closest virus we've ever seen to COVID-19 was in storage there, and they were weirdly non-transparent about this - it was referenced in an early paper on COVID-19 but with a different designation which meant it wasn't clear that this was the same virus that was the subject of a previous paper. And this wasn't just an accident - they were asked numerous times if it was the same thing and refused to give an answer.

I'm not sure I believe it was bioengineering - I think it's probably something far more prosaic - just a researcher from Wuhan going back to the caves they found this original virus, picking up a new strain (ie. catching it) and bringing it back. There have been calls made globally for the scientists to return to the caves and take samples to try and establish if COVID-19 is present there and they've refused. It's all very weird.

5 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

Going to be a hard sell to the general public who aren’t as invested as us on here. They’ve just heard 21 June is ‘Freedom Day’ and imagine have already made plans.

What plans are people making to do things they can't already do? Big weddings? Going out with 9 friends instead of 5?

The big thing that theoretically comes back on 21 June is live events, and in most cases people aren't making plans to go to those because most promoters aren't taking the risk of putting them on.

[MrBarry465]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

What plans are people making to do things they can't already do? Big weddings? Going out with 9 friends instead of 5?

The big thing that theoretically comes back on 21 June is live events, and in most cases people aren't making plans to go to those because most promoters aren't taking the risk of putting them on.

Yeah I tend to agree with the above, I've said a couple of times I don't really understand what people think is suddenly going to change on the 21st of June relative to now?

As an aside, booking the vaccine process is incredibly cumbersome. Are you supposed to get a confirmation when you book? 

[DeanoL]

Been away from this thread for a few days, it's all got quiet negative hasn't it?

I think we'll be fine - there's a worse-case scenario* where you get a very transmissible variant, and so you can ask what happens if the entire population are infected. 66.5 million cases. Can't be any worse. Based on the efficacy of the vaccines, plus the hospitalisation rate in the first place, natural immunity and so on... this was posted a couple of weeks ago: 

If the vaccines really do reduce the chance of hospitalisation to 0.06%, then you're golden as the NHS can cope with 40K hospital admissions as it's not like they'll all be on the same day. So once enough people are vaccinated we get to the point that cases no longer matter at all, nor do more infections variants. It's just finding the balance point there, and why June 21st might get pushed a couple of weeks but we're not talking of months more lockdown.

*I mean predictable worst case - obvious there could be variants that escape the vaccine but that's about as likely as an entire new pandemic with a new disease.

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I've been reading Failures of State by a couple of Times journalists the last few days. The first couple of chapters on the origins are really interesting. There's some damn weird stuff going on with China and all this. It started in Wuhan, of all the places in the world, it started in the place that contains the world's leading labs for the study of coronaviruses. Could just be a coincidence but it's one of hell of a coincidence.

it's also a big city which has these wet markets....and it was in one of these types of market that sars1 started, at least I think that's the case. But...so far there is no evidence either way, unless the Americans have something...

[steviewevie]

16 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

What plans are people making to do things they can't already do? Big weddings? Going out with 9 friends instead of 5?

I actually have my Mum's 90th that we postponed from late December to late July...we have rented a big house and lots of family are going...we may or may not be able to do this now.

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I actually have my Mum's 90th that we postponed from late December to late July...we have rented a big house and lots of family are going...we may or may not be able to do this now.

If it's pushed back I doubt very much it'll be that far. I think most people have done similar to you - they've booked stuff for a bit later to allow for changes to the "no earlier than" date. 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

If it's pushed back I doubt very much it'll be that far. I think most people have done similar to you - they've booked stuff for a bit later to allow for changes to the "no earlier than" date. 

yeah...we actually moved it last summer, thought there was little chance of being able to in the winter...and just hoped for the best for this summer.

[Fuzzy Afro]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Been away from this thread for a few days, it's all got quiet negative hasn't it?

I think we'll be fine - there's a worse-case scenario* where you get a very transmissible variant, and so you can ask what happens if the entire population are infected. 66.5 million cases. Can't be any worse. Based on the efficacy of the vaccines, plus the hospitalisation rate in the first place, natural immunity and so on... this was posted a couple of weeks ago: 

If the vaccines really do reduce the chance of hospitalisation to 0.06%, then you're golden as the NHS can cope with 40K hospital admissions as it's not like they'll all be on the same day. So once enough people are vaccinated we get to the point that cases no longer matter at all, nor do more infections variants. It's just finding the balance point there, and why June 21st might get pushed a couple of weeks but we're not talking of months more lockdown.

*I mean predictable worst case - obvious there could be variants that escape the vaccine but that's about as likely as an entire new pandemic with a new disease.

Was starting to panic a bit so this post has really cheered me up. Thanks very much, I genuinely mean that. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

30 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

I wonder if this is true anymore. It certainly was true when there wasn't an exit plan, but now with vaccines we're just racing to get ahead of the virus. If we go back to the metric of preventing overwhelming the NHS, and we put aside the metric of "not letting people die" (which is harsh but it's where the thinking comes from) then the NHS has capacity right now, so get people catching COVID and going in and getting treated, being okay, and coming out with immunity - especially in those who can't/won't have the vaccine. It's not like before where hospitalisation would always go up without lockdown. The vaccines provide an exit plan in this case.

I'm not sure how you get from a few more months (September) to Winter (December) to "this time next year" (May). There's loads of extra time in there. But the reality is COVID is loads more transmissible than other seasonal - that's why it's a problem. I think now we've seen the public will accept some measure we may see movement on the flu front this winter but it'll be all non-invasive measures - they'll be pushing vaccination again, encouraging people to think about hands/space/face, masks for when you're on public transport or ill, not hugging granny or going into work if you're ill, etc. 

Lockdowns aren't particularly effective against flu as it's not that transmissible.

I've been reading Failures of State by a couple of Times journalists the last few days. The first couple of chapters on the origins are really interesting. There's some damn weird stuff going on with China and all this. It started in Wuhan, of all the places in the world, it started in the place that contains the world's leading labs for the study of coronaviruses. Could just be a coincidence but it's one of hell of a coincidence.

Then there's the fact that the closest virus we've ever seen to COVID-19 was in storage there, and they were weirdly non-transparent about this - it was referenced in an early paper on COVID-19 but with a different designation which meant it wasn't clear that this was the same virus that was the subject of a previous paper. And this wasn't just an accident - they were asked numerous times if it was the same thing and refused to give an answer.

I'm not sure I believe it was bioengineering - I think it's probably something far more prosaic - just a researcher from Wuhan going back to the caves they found this original virus, picking up a new strain (ie. catching it) and bringing it back. There have been calls made globally for the scientists to return to the caves and take samples to try and establish if COVID-19 is present there and they've refused. It's all very weird.

What plans are people making to do things they can't already do? Big weddings? Going out with 9 friends instead of 5?

The big thing that theoretically comes back on 21 June is live events, and in most cases people aren't making plans to go to those because most promoters aren't taking the risk of putting them on.

House parties (although plenty are having them already) and nightclubs are the two big things that could be back come 21 June. 

[El Matador]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

House parties (although plenty are having them already) and nightclubs are the two big things that could be back come 21 June. 

Also allows businesses to operate without social distancing which can be the difference between running at a profit and running at a loss for a lot of places. 

[Havors]

1 hour ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

That's crackers. The first part of the postcode is the larger area! 

I know! haha thats why is bonkers. I think when its a larger area it tries to force you to certain centres, maybe less busy ones. I cant fathom any other reason. 

[steviewevie]

From Guardian's Jessica Elgot:

Boris Johnson stands by his comments that there is nothing in the data to suggest a deviation from England’s reopening on 21 June, Downing Street has said, as scientists said the UK was facing a perilous moment.

The business minister Paul Scully also said on Tuesday there was “cautious optimism” that the date for the final lifting of restrictions could go ahead as planned. He told Times Radio the government did not want to have to roll back restrictions again.

He said:

One thing that we saw last year, before Christmas, was the stop-start nature just didn’t work for businesses and cost them more. So we’ve got to get it absolutely right. People’s jobs and livelihoods depend on it.

[steviewevie]

For the boffins on here only...

 

[zahidf]

Lol

 

[steviewevie]

Wales are winning...

[steviewevie]

oh, I guess it should be Wales is winning.

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Lol

 

I wonder if its because they want to remain relevant? Opening back up and the data showing no deaths and very little hospitalisations means they will disappear into obscurity and never again be asked to appear on TV or radio? 

Like Prod Danny Altmann will vanish off to whatever his day job is and never be heard from again... Fake Sage also... If they were that good at their job surely they would have been invited to real Sage?  They just seem to love the attention and followers? 

Take Pagel for instance, she is building up a strong portfolio of being completely wrong. Even when she tried to dismiss the pilot events, she totally overlooked some of the data and made herself look like an conspiracy theorist. 

[DeanoL]

42 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

House parties (although plenty are having them already) and nightclubs are the two big things that could be back come 21 June. 

Oh yeah I'm not denying there's stuff still to open, I was just specifically responding to someone who said people had "made plans" for 21 June onwards. Nightclubs are like live events in that there's not many of them that are committing to opening for 21 June to plan for. House parties is a fair point but most of those don't involve that much planning.

There's definitely new stuff people want to be able to do, it's just not mostly stuff people already have planned and will find a ball ache to change if the dates change. 

[DeanoL]

Just now, Havors said:

Take Pagel for instance, she is building up a strong portfolio of being completely wrong. Even when she tried to dismiss the pilot events, she totally overlooked some of the data and made herself look like an conspiracy theorist. 

But up until January she'd bee completely right on everything. I don't agree with her current stance on pushing everything back months but so far she's been right more often than the government have been.

[st dan]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But up until January she'd bee completely right on everything. I don't agree with her current stance on pushing everything back months but so far she's been right more often than the government have been.

Scientists don’t have to take all the other factors into their decision making and advice though, that’s a key thing. If ONLY Covid mattered then yeah we’d all stay in lockdown until we were all vaccinated - but that’s obviously not possible. She isn’t thinking of the financial and mental health implications to millions of just pushing back and pushing back, and nor should she be expected to. And let’s me honest, it doesn’t take a genius to realise that if you don’t come into contact with many people then the chance of contracting the virus reduces significantly. 

But unfortunately the Government do have to consider all angles to this, so they can’t just take her advice without severe repercussions - just as they can’t take advice from a purely business and financial point of view either. 

[zahidf]

Another zero death day

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

46 minutes ago, Havors said:

I know! haha thats why is bonkers. I think when its a larger area it tries to force you to certain centres, maybe less busy ones. I cant fathom any other reason. 

I suspect the answer is NHS Digital....

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But up until January she'd bee completely right on everything. I don't agree with her current stance on pushing everything back months but so far she's been right more often than the government have been.

Please can you stick to the script, we do love a bit of pagelhate on here. It is all her fault after all.