When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, the figures shown cover the period from when numbers started shooting up, so this is the natural growth that already existed in the lower numbers, we haven't seen a similar spike at the 2-3 week point we passed a week ago, so it seems logical to assume that a similar rate of growth would be likely next month, or somewhere in the region of 30-50k hospital cases.  A month ago I was expressing concern at seeing numbers in hospital go from the mid 300s to a couple of thousand in a month.  It is hard to understand why action hasn't been taken, the basic maths of this suggest that the health service is going to be overrun by xmas.

They would claim they have taken action but even if they have it’s been far too late. You can see in the news reports of NHS staff overwhelmed and fatigued from the first wave that are at breaking point already. Back in April they have extra staff, retirees and students helping which aren’t there now.

It’s been over 1,000 hospital admissions for a few days now and I fear like you that it could rise much further in the coming weeks. 

[Spindles]

What is truly terrifying is the rate at which hospital numbers dropped once we locked down.  They peaked 2-3 weeks after lockdown started, which demonstrably shows that such action can work to stop growth in it's tracks.  It then dropped at a rate of halving every month until the lowest point was reached a full 4 months later.

So if we do nothing today, and say, performed a complete lockdown on 1st november we'd likely still see hospital numbers reach 20k and have only dropped to around 5k by xmas.  That's if we did something, every day we do nothing the situation gets worse, but if we did something we could at least look forward to xmas being half as bad as things are now, rather than being many times worse.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Spindles

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, Spindles said:

What is truly terrifying is the rate at which hospital numbers dropped once we locked down.  They peaked 2-3 weeks after lockdown started, which demonstrably shows that such action can work to stop growth in it's tracks.  It then dropped at a rate of halving every month until the lowest point was reached a full 4 months later.

So if we do nothing today, and say, performed a complete lockdown on 1st november we'd likely still see hospital numbers reach 20k and have only dropped to around 5k by xmas.  That's if we did something, every day we do nothing the situation gets worse, but if we did something we could at least look forward to xmas being half as bad as things are now, rather than being many times worse.

That’s why I think it would be wise to move areas that are showing a rise in cases but not yet at critical level. Try and get ahead of it before those hospitals suffer too. As you say that action works with surprising the virus so do it again now and hopefully we can get them in a decent position for Christmas or just in general. 

[Homer]

Brilliant - child poverty charity run out of Tufton St!

[gigpusher]

I have a friend who is a doctor and she has been for one of the vaccine trials today at the University of Bradford. 

https://www.bradford.ac.uk/news/archive/2020/world-first-as-mass-covid-19-vaccine-trial-begins-in-bradford.php?fbclid=IwAR1sHSiZns_m4uCf5FXsfqOCYe242sEe8rgztClUp05gzULIUSNCVFJqC5A 

Edited October 26, 2020 by gigpusher

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Working from home ‘damaging Britain's creative potential and economic wellbeing’

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/26/working-from-home-damaging-britains-creative-potential-and-economic-wellbeing

[steviewevie]

Another expert going on about brexit.

 

[Ozanne]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Working from home ‘damaging Britain's creative potential and economic wellbeing’

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/26/working-from-home-damaging-britains-creative-potential-and-economic-wellbeing

I feel he’s saying a lot whilst not really saying much at all 😂

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, the figures shown cover the period from when numbers started shooting up, so this is the natural growth that already existed in the lower numbers, we haven't seen a similar spike at the 2-3 week point we passed a week ago, so it seems logical to assume that a similar rate of growth would be likely next month, or somewhere in the region of 30-50k hospital cases.  A month ago I was expressing concern at seeing numbers in hospital go from the mid 300s to a couple of thousand in a month.  It is hard to understand why action hasn't been taken, the basic maths of this suggest that the health service is going to be overrun by xmas.

The fact there is basic maths that we can do does make you wonder how deliberate it is to push things close to capacity before taking proper action. 

Herd immunity by stealth, creating a need for a convenient lockdown around Brexit time and perhaps even ideologically driven 'survival of the fittest'. All plausible...

Edited October 26, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[steviewevie]

I wonder if Starmer hadn't called for a circuit break lockdown would we be in a circuit break lockdown right now?

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I wonder if Starmer hadn't called for a circuit break lockdown would we be in a circuit break lockdown right now?

Possibly. But Johnson would still have to contend with his unhappy backbenchers. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Someone on Hacker News is on the Oxford trial and posted the participant information sheet. I've not read it yet:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WB5QPmECchlThnem9wcX0PDaKQWtmUgZ/view?usp=drivesdk

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Possibly. But Johnson would still have to contend with his unhappy backbenchers. 

yeah, true.

[BobWillis]

4 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Patients admitted to hospital is rising quickly, looks like we are now seeing the impacts of the rising cases from a few weeks back. Hopefully improvements in treatment means many can survive!

Just want to make sure that people are aware these are positive cases of anyone going into hospital as an inpatient, and not hospital admissions due to covid alone?!

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Just want to make sure that people are aware these are positive cases of anyone going into hospital as an inpatient, and not hospital admissions due to covid alone?!

Yup, you get people in for broken legs that test positive for covid. Not many, but it happens. 

[zahidf]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yup, you get people in for broken legs that test positive for covid. Not many, but it happens. 

Minimal amount

[Ozanne]

According to The Economist they have forecast that the incumbent President has a 4% chance of winning re-election.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[Fuzzy Afro]

Oh fuck. I really hope he doesn’t have to resign.

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Oh fuck. I really hope he doesn’t have to resign.

Lol doubt it over an accident 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Lol doubt it over an accident 

He’s just fishing.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Oh fuck. I really hope he doesn’t have to resign.

Apparently he'd had about 10 pints.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Apparently he'd had about 10 pints.

and he had a couple of prostitutes in the car with him

Edited October 26, 2020 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

and he had a couple of prostitutes in the car within him

and 1kg of coke and 5000 ecstasy tablets in his boot.

Edited October 26, 2020 by steviewevie

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

and he had a couple of prostitutes in the car within him

Testing his eye sight.