When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Nobody Interesting said:

You do know that people that sit at home also contribute to the economy?

Please don't bother replying though as I really cannot be bothered to talk to someone who could not care less about others who do not share their own ideals.

Any way, I am off to a festival now so ta ta
Have fun in your heaving pub

Have fun. Very jealous. Weather looks a bit shit though. 🙂

[Justiceforcedave]

7 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

Whereabouts if you don't mind me asking? I managed a grand total of 3 escape rooms last year which is a bit down on my annual average of 100... they were doing a bang-up job on disinfecting everything between games. Apparently alcohol gel destroys locks over time!

Brighton. It’s called Bewilder Box.

 

Yeah it’s a blooming nightmare keeping everything clean. But needs must 🙂

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Nobody Interesting said:

You do know that people that sit at home also contribute to the economy?

Please don't bother replying though as I really cannot be bothered to talk to someone who could not care less about others who do not share their own ideals.

Any way, I am off to a festival now so ta ta
Have fun in your heaving pub

Those people that sit at home can contribute the economy just as they always have done then cant they? No? We don't need to hold back everyone who contributes by going out to do that genius. 

Oh wind it in you petty little virtue signaler with your logical fallacies. They wont work on me. I care plenty and have never said otherwise! Ta ta! 

[DeanoL]

I think we're conflating two things in this discussion at the moment. First there's the medical issue. Cases are going up, will continue to go up, and then they'll reach a peak and come back down. We should hit that peak in the next few weeks, and if we do all is fine. If we don't, and cases continue to keep going up (and so do hospitalisations at the same rate) we will be back in full lockdown, unavoidably. But that probably won't happen. It's not what the science points to. The only problem there is the case numbers being as high as they are now is also not what the science points to. So y'know, we should be okay until the scientists have it catastrophically wrong.

The second issue is the one I've gone on and on about for the past few months, and that's hesitancy. You can drop the rules all you want but if people don't feel comfortable going out they won't go out and that's a problem. A lot of people have harped on for a long time about how we should drop all the rules, and let people do what they want. The worried can stay in, the rest of them can get "back to normal". They've said that confident in the knowledge that 90% of people are on the same page they are, and the other 10% are introvert fake-SAGE weirdos. That the reason pubs aren't full is because people don't like table service, wearing masks to the loo, or having to book in advance. That Latitude isn't sold out because it's quite hard to get to. 

I was actually starting to believe that, given the level of confidence they seemed to have in this belief, hell, you'll have seen me making posts going "yeah but even if we're just 10% that can have a big impacts on gigs, etc.". But no - turns out the cautious people were in the majority all along. Turns out when you tell people "yeah there will be an exit wave but you probably won't die" a lot people go "oh cool, I'll just wait until the exit wave is done then".

What's happening now is what I expected to start happening in a couple of weeks time, once the initial rush and excitement of freedom day wore off. That at that point we might have some pubs and cafes reintroduce distancing and masking measures to encourage the vast swathes of society hiding away to go to them.

Same as I've always said: if you want to go back to normal, you have to bring everyone with you. Because it's other people that run the businesses you go to, other people that perform at the gigs you go to, other people that cook at the restaurant you go to.... you can't just go "back to normal" on your own. But instead of trying to win the argument and actually encourage people not to be afraid and that it'll be okay, the anti-lockdown hawks have gone with "people can just stay at home if they don't like it". And now they're upset because people are doing exactly that.

[efcfanwirral]

If, and this is a massive if, the gigs I've booked go ahead, I don't think I'll be going back to the pub until September as I have them every 2-3 weeks (ha! Wishful thinking but for now it's true), having been to them without worry or consequence regularly since mid April. 

The events are more important to me, and I don't want to be ill and have to miss them. In the past you'd get ill and push on but those days are gone now. If you want to guarantee going to an event there needs to be an element of isolating beforehand. 

Plus I guess the benefit of this is it protects others when I get back from what I still see as a bit of a reckless risk. 

[MrBarry465]

49 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

So, there is this exit wave they keep talking about, and we must have it now because summer is best time etc...but they're obviously shitting it with how high this wave is going to be, what with not everyone fully vaccinated, social disatncing restrictions ending, and now loads of people turning off their test/trace apps. So, this is why we are seeing a bit of a push back with govt and scientists urging caution, slow and steady, go out but don't go out, go to work but don't go to work, wear a mask because you're good etc etc.

I keep hearing this nonsense "the exit wave we had to have"A

Anyone who doesn't think people like whitty and vallance are shitting it behind closed doors are kidding themselves.

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

Brighton. It’s called Bewilder Box.

 

Yeah it’s a blooming nightmare keeping everything clean. But needs must 🙂

Ah one of those Daves.... we know each other 😄

[MrBarry465]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think we're conflating two things in this discussion at the moment. First there's the medical issue. Cases are going up, will continue to go up, and then they'll reach a peak and come back down. We should hit that peak in the next few weeks, and if we do all is fine. If we don't, and cases continue to keep going up (and so do hospitalisations at the same rate) we will be back in full lockdown, unavoidably. But that probably won't happen. It's not what the science points to. The only problem there is the case numbers being as high as they are now is also not what the science points to. So y'know, we should be okay until the scientists have it catastrophically wrong.

The second issue is the one I've gone on and on about for the past few months, and that's hesitancy. You can drop the rules all you want but if people don't feel comfortable going out they won't go out and that's a problem. A lot of people have harped on for a long time about how we should drop all the rules, and let people do what they want. The worried can stay in, the rest of them can get "back to normal". They've said that confident in the knowledge that 90% of people are on the same page they are, and the other 10% are introvert fake-SAGE weirdos. That the reason pubs aren't full is because people don't like table service, wearing masks to the loo, or having to book in advance. That Latitude isn't sold out because it's quite hard to get to. 

I was actually starting to believe that, given the level of confidence they seemed to have in this belief, hell, you'll have seen me making posts going "yeah but even if we're just 10% that can have a big impacts on gigs, etc.". But no - turns out the cautious people were in the majority all along. Turns out when you tell people "yeah there will be an exit wave but you probably won't die" a lot people go "oh cool, I'll just wait until the exit wave is done then".

What's happening now is what I expected to start happening in a couple of weeks time, once the initial rush and excitement of freedom day wore off. That at that point we might have some pubs and cafes reintroduce distancing and masking measures to encourage the vast swathes of society hiding away to go to them.

Same as I've always said: if you want to go back to normal, you have to bring everyone with you. Because it's other people that run the businesses you go to, other people that perform at the gigs you go to, other people that cook at the restaurant you go to.... you can't just go "back to normal" on your own. But instead of trying to win the argument and actually encourage people not to be afraid and that it'll be okay, the anti-lockdown hawks have gone with "people can just stay at home if they don't like it". And now they're upset because people are doing exactly that.

Very well said.

[MrBarry465]

15 minutes ago, Havors said:

But they are full and heaving! That is all that matters. People that only sit at home anyway are irrelevant. 

The pubs can't be propped up infefinetly by those that don't give a shit.

As others have pointed out, people are in for a shock. It's clear the vast majority of people are concerned. None of my mates are going into a rammed pub until double jabbing and things due down.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

The pubs can't be propped up infefinetly by those that don't give a shit.

As others have pointed out, people are in for a shock. It's clear the vast majority of people are concerned. None of my mates are going into a rammed pub until double jabbing and things due down.

We shall see... I think you will be surprised. 

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

We shall see... I think you will be surprised. 

I don't think I will - but we shall see.

The government will realise that the economy coming back full swing is related to cases. They could have kept a bit more control and not open the flood gates complete.

I predict some u turns within the fortnight. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I keep hearing this nonsense "the exit wave we had to have"A

Anyone who doesn't think people like whitty and vallance are shitting it behind closed doors are kidding themselves.

I think Whitty is being straight up when he says there isn't necessarily a good time to open up...either now when schools are closed but not everyone vaccinated, or at end of summer or autumn when more are vaccinated but schools are back and other viruses are starting to spread. So, I guess they really want to ease the opening, keep some restrictions, but govt doesn't want the responsibility of imposing these restrictions so leaving it to individuals and businesses and we just hope for the best. Problem is hospitals aready busy and in some cases overstretched.

[Havors]

 

Northwest and Yorkshire... (the first hit by Delta I think) are likely going to peak very soon and drop. Barring any spike from the semis/final of the Euros. 

[Justiceforcedave]

9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

What's happening now is what I expected to start happening in a couple of weeks time, once the initial rush and excitement of freedom day wore off. That at that point we might have some pubs and cafes reintroduce distancing and masking measures to encourage the vast swathes of society hiding away to go to them.

One of the bars we operate in has done exactly this. Advertised themselves as a safe place where there will still be rules.

They’ll undoubtedly keep more customers this way and the support on social media has been overwhelming.

The flip side is there are plenty of places that are the opposite. Keeping restrictions would do the opposite. Depends on your customer base I guess.

[MrBarry465]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Same mates the other week you said weren't following the rules and where going to the pub ?   

You lie so much on here.

Big difference between not following social distancing rules between a group of friends and entering a packed out pub with 150+ strangers with cases rabid.

[Havors]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

This is great news.  I think people can't look beyond case numbers.  We really need them to fall to help people feel confident and less fearful.

Agreed. I dont believe them to be anywhere near as important as they were pre vaccine but them lowering will help the more fearful people.

[DeanoL]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You don't tackle fear though by being fearful.  We should be pushing the message that the vaccine protects more than a mask (it does), that if you are doubled jabbed you are probably at worse going to get bad cold, that we can go out and live life.  Not what is currently happening.

I don't blame people for being fearful at the moment to be honest because the message is currently one of fear.  And its all politics, its all behavioural management, and its all toxic in my opinion.

I think the problem with messaging on the vaccine at the moment is it's a bit of a Catch-22. If the messaging becomes "get double jabbed, it's the only way to be safe" you hit the problem that with the current 8-week gap between doses, if I've ignored the vaccine up until now that's 10 weeks until I'm at full effectiveness, even I go today. Then lots of people in their 30s who are still waiting for second jabs even if they got their first ASAP. And realistically, if you want full pubs and nightclubs and cafes... those are the people you need to be confident. I think we might be downplaying the vaccine because the most socially active people haven't had a chance to get it yet. But if they feel confident in a mask... well they don't have to wait 8 weeks to get one of those.

They can't really scaremonger using the vaccine until it's quick and easy for everyone to get it. And we need that 4 week gap approving now.

[Justiceforcedave]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Ah one of those Daves.... we know each other 😄

Oh yeah? Spill the beans then.

[phimill]

6 minutes ago, Havors said:

 

Northwest and Yorkshire... (the first hit by Delta I think) are likely going to peak very soon and drop. Barring any spike from the semis/final of the Euros. 

How long do we think the rest of the country is behind - if i remember correctly it was about 2W after NW that it started to rise elsewhere. If so, we hope to peak around 1st August (with euros baked in to this peak so no additonal spike). Then hopefully with vaccines in place its a steep decline back to "minimal" levels around end of august - at this time we should be around 80% adults fully vaccinated, and fingers crossed with no scariants we will just have the "humm" around in the background 

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

One of the bars we operate in has done exactly this. Advertised themselves as a safe place where there will still be rules.

They’ll undoubtedly keep more customers this way and the support on social media has been overwhelming.

The flip side is there are plenty of places that are the opposite. Keeping restrictions would do the opposite. Depends on your customer base I guess.

Saw a comedy gig the other night that was offering a choice between regular seating on one side of the room and socially distanced seating on the other. Was a clever approach.

(And my name is in my username and I don't think there's many UK enthusiasts with the same first name...)

[Justiceforcedave]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Saw a comedy gig the other night that was offering a choice between regular seating on one side of the room and socially distanced seating on the other. Was a clever approach.

(And my name is in my username and I don't think there's many UK enthusiasts with the same first name...)

The penny has dropped! Hello Dean, hope you’re keeping safe 😀

[Havors]

1 minute ago, phimill said:

How long do we think the rest of the country is behind - if i remember correctly it was about 2W after NW that it started to rise elsewhere. If so, we hope to peak around 1st August (with euros baked in to this peak so no additonal spike). Then hopefully with vaccines in place its a steep decline back to "minimal" levels around end of august - at this time we should be around 80% adults fully vaccinated, and fingers crossed with no scariants we will just have the "humm" around in the background 

Think the biggest rises were in the NE recently and London & those ways are starting to drive the rise. If the NW and Yorkshire peak and drop very soon it brilliant news as the rest of the country will likely follow that pattern.  Fingers crossed! 

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

It was the over selling of fear that a sub 50 year old should have about catching covid as well.  We have scared 20s, 30s and 40 year olds beyond what was sensible in my view.

As a healthy 40 year old my risk from covid was tiny - that's a fact - yet the messaging didn't match this in an attempt at controlling people.  We now have a problem that even single jabbed 20 year olds are fearful.

Perhaps - it sort of comes down to the risk assessment you were talking about earlier though. I'm one of those lazy middle-class work-from-home w*nkers right. I have no kids so I don't have to worry about term times or any of that. I'm being told that there's something quite unpleasant out there, but it's fine because with even one jab I'm not going to die, probably won't end up in hospital, maybe just in bed for a few weeks with flu is the worst. Probably just feeling grim and out of breath for a week.

And this is just a wave of cases, it'll plateau and then start to drop... okay, then, well I'll just save my leave until Sept/Oct and go out then once this wave is done. There's no rush. Gigs and festivals might tempt me but... oh they've mostly cancelled. I have a mate's wedding, obviously I'll go to that as it's important, but the rest, I can see friends at home, when the weather is nice in the park. The draw of a pub just isn't there. 

The risk calculation for me is, with a few exceptions (like the aforementioned wedding) I'm probably better staying in. Let other people get sick and get the wave out the way. Book more stuff for later in the year instead. Possibly even be allowed to go on holiday abroad by then!

[Fuzzy Afro]

 

Disgusting. Why should covid patients be prioritised over people who need a liver transplant? 

[JoeyT]

No covid out here.

Just clear skies, smooth sailing & beer.

Falmouth to Fowey. Lovely.