When will this shit end?

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

Does this imply a reduction in growth rate again? There are that many graphs its hard to keep track of which one is for which haha 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Cases are surging under the current restrictions, therefore it makes absolutely zero sense to either:

 

- Maintain the current restrictions for longer

- Soften but not remove them (e.g. keeping face coverings on public transport)

 

 

The choices the government have is to either suppress the Delta wave by reimposing lockdown type restrictions or just let the virus rip and go for herd immunity. The latter has been chosen. 

why can't you have somewhere inbetween...which is what we have had for the majority of the last year?

[zahidf]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Obviously the govt and boffins want the opton to lock us up again. Be interesting if people will listen post second jab, if covid deaths go down and there isnt furlough. Will people be willing to stay at home over Xmas just for NHS capcaity over flu?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

why can't you have somewhere inbetween...which is what we have had for the majority of the last year?

because enough is enough. 

 

( And cases wont go down without another lockdown)

Edited July 7, 2021 by zahidf

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

Only thing that doesn’t make sense to me with that is if that’s the case, why send whole classes home? Why tell people to isolate? If you want people to get it, you’d let them get it surely?

I guess they don't want it to be too fast. And maybe it's politically difficult to remove those restrictions when you're hitting an unvaccinated group (I.e. children), even if they do have good natural immunity.

I think it's also simply becoming politically difficult. There are plenty of people saying "enough is enough" and aren't really concerned with an optimal COVID disease outcome, they just want to get on with a post-restrictions life.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

because enough is enough. 

 

( And cases wont go down without another lockdown)

yes, but they might not get so high either?

I'm not arguing for restrictions...well, I don't think I am...it's just Fuzzy was implying the choice was either full lockdown or full reopening and nothing inbetween was possible...?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I guess they don't want it to be too fast. And maybe it's politically difficult to remove those restrictions when you're hitting an unvaccinated group (I.e. children), even if they do have good natural immunity.

I think it's also simply becoming politically difficult. There are plenty of people saying "enough is enough" and aren't really concerned with an optimal COVID disease outcome, they just want to get on with a post-restrictions life.

Its Hybrid immunity according to the Standard: a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated getting it will make the peak earlier in August and get cases down sooner

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

because enough is enough. 

 

( And cases wont go down without another lockdown)

Depends what you mean by lockdown. They may well go down if we shut hospitality and schools, but kept everything else open. Not that I'm actually advocating that.

[zahidf]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yes, but they might not get so high either?

I'm not arguing for restrictions...well, I don't think I am...it's just Fuzzy was implying the choice was either full lockdown or full reopening and nothing inbetween was possible...?

But then if its still high ( which it will be under current restrictions) when will there be the political will to remove the rest of the restrictions? over the winter? when schools come back?

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Depends what you mean by lockdown. They may well go down if we shut hospitality and schools, but kept everything else open. Not that I'm actually advocating that.

School holidays will shut the schools in a couple of weeks. fingers crossed that will work to get numbers down!

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Obviously the govt and boffins want the opton to lock us up again. Be interesting if people will listen post second jab, if covid deaths go down and there isnt furlough. Will people be willing to stay at home over Xmas just for NHS capcaity over flu?

we'll see...Whitty was suggesting they're worried winter could be pretty bad...can't imagine it will be anything like full lockdown or situation we were in last christmas, but they might want to try and stop various viruses spreading if looking dicey.

[dingbat2]

4 minutes ago, Havors said:

Does this imply a reduction in growth rate again? There are that many graphs its hard to keep track of which one is for which haha 

yes, the growth rate per week is falling, so cases were increasing by over 70% per week at the start of the month, but now they are 'only' increasing by 43% per week

[DeanoL]

21 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

The logic seems to be it's going to happen anyway, so unless we tighten restrictions, which is politically unfeasible, it's unlikely to speed up that much by reopening things. And there has to be a ceiling at herd immunity eventually anyway.

38 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

As you can tell, I generally agree with you, but I think you've got it wrong here. For young people, who are most of those on single doses, four weeks after the first jab gives profound protection on top of the natural immunity, particularly for the mRNA vaccines.

 

Fair cop, I misunderstood the nature of the drop off - it only being against infection not severe disease. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

we'll see...Whitty was suggesting they're worried winter could be pretty bad...can't imagine it will be anything like full lockdown or situation we were in last christmas, but they might want to try and stop various viruses spreading if looking dicey.

Surely in the wonder they would only bring back small restrictions if they did at all, say masks indoors and a rule of 6 (for example)?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

But then if its still high ( which it will be under current restrictions) when will there be the political will to remove the rest of the restrictions? over the winter? when schools come back?

don't know. when all double jabbed. I mean, the only restriction I personally think they could keep is masks on some public transport. But, I do get the argument that now might be the best time...just seems kind of risky.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Surely in the wonder they would only bring back small restrictions if they did at all, say masks indoors and a rule of 6 (for example)?

Over Xmas, rule of 6 isnt a 'small' thing...

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

But then if its still high ( which it will be under current restrictions) when will there be the political will to remove the rest of the restrictions? over the winter? when schools come back?

It'd be when they start naturally going down. Ideally (medically) what you want is a slow trickle of infections that places no strain on the NHS as we edge our way to herd immunity. Without Delta that's probably what we would be seeing now. As it is it would need fairly harsh restrictions to keep numbers that low so it's not seen as worth doing.

[zahidf]

Just now, steviewevie said:

don't know. when all double jabbed. I mean, the only restriction I personally think they could keep is masks on some public transport. But, I do get the argument that now might be the best time...just seems kind of risky.

But that will coincide with all the schools coming back. And the scientific advice will be NOT to get rid now, 'sorry'.

I think we should ask more why restrictions should be in place, not why they should be removed

[balthazarstarbuck]

 

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Depends what you mean by lockdown. They may well go down if we shut hospitality and schools, but kept everything else open. Not that I'm actually advocating that.

I’m a bit sick of the false dichotomy of “lockdown” and “everything open”. In reality there’s a huge spectrum, and we’re a lot closer to everything open now (though with travel and isolation we still won’t be after the 19th). Similarly the lockdowns have all been different flavours.

I will say cases were still going down in phase 2 which was outdoor hospitality- it was only once we allowed indoor mingling the numbers started to go Pete Tong; with vaccines in place I’d imagine that would lower cases pretty sharpish. Obviously whether that’s politically palatable is quite another matter.

[Mr Boo]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

School holidays will shut the schools in a couple of weeks. fingers crossed that will work to get numbers down

Yes sounds like this is part of the thinking behind the timing. Not sure it will work though, with half the population squashed together on beaches in Devon and Cornwall.

Also I don’t understand why the Government is continuing with the track and trace app, surely we will end up isolating every time we go to a cafe or a pub?

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

School holidays will shut the schools in a couple of weeks. fingers crossed that will work to get numbers down!

I suspect that any gains in shutting the schools will be offset by "freedom day"

[Fuzzy Afro]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

why can't you have somewhere inbetween...which is what we have had for the majority of the last year?

Because the R number is > 1 under those restrictions anyway. Significantly.

 

To put it bluntly, with no change at all to the rules, the vast majority of the people who’ve not had covid or been fully vaccinated yet are going to catch covid over the next 2 months. Opening up makes this happen faster but doesnt change the ultimate picture. Cases soar until we hit herd immunity and then drop off. This will happen with an opening (very quickly) or under current restrictions (slightly less rapidly)

 

This is why the scrapping of masks is pretty irrelevant. The current restrictions are making almost no difference anyway so continuing with even less stringent ones makes zero sense.

 

The only way the government can actually suppress this wave is to reimpose restrictions. The optimist in me thinks that outdoor hospitality and outdoor socialising in groups of 6 could stay but they’d need to be closing pubs and banning indoor household mixing to get R < 1. There’s no desire for that any more so we won’t be suppressing this wave, we’re going for herd immunity.

 

 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

21 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update:

I'm still baffled by why the vaccine figures are so low. Is there a shortage? Have many of the vaccination centres been closed? Fewer volunteers? Or is it purely a lack of uptake now?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

 

I’m a bit sick of the false dichotomy of “lockdown” and “everything open”. In reality there’s a huge spectrum, and we’re a lot closer to everything open now (though with travel and isolation we still won’t be after the 19th). Similarly the lockdowns have all been different flavours.

I will say cases were still going down in phase 2 which was outdoor hospitality- it was only once we allowed indoor mingling the numbers started to go Pete Tong; with vaccines in place I’d imagine that would lower cases pretty sharpish. Obviously whether that’s politically palatable is quite another matter.

Sorry, yeah - I should have said "indoor" hospitality. Also agree on the political aspect.

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Mr Boo said:

Yes sounds like this is part of the thinking behind the timing. Not sure it will work though, with half the population squashed together on beaches in Devon and Cornwall.

Also I don’t understand why the Government is continuing with the track and trace app, surely we will end up isolating every time we go to a cafe or a pub?

I can think of fewer places less likely to spread covid than a breezy beach.