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Football 18/19

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51 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Worth noting that we do have the option of an extra year on Rondon's contract, so we can extend it if we wish.

Oh fair enough. I still don't think he's a good long term answer the our striker problems though. 

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1 hour ago, Gnomicide said:

Do decisions even themselves out over the course of a season?

http://www.espnluckindex.com/?rand=ref~{"ref"%3A"https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2Fg6hiFMdL9B%3Famp%3D1"}

I read an article recently that suggested ( can't remember on what basis) that you would need something like a 200 game season to minimize loss.

I have always thought it silly when people say the league doesn't lie, especially for teams with small points deficits.

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29 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Oh fair enough. I still don't think he's a good long term answer the our striker problems though. 

No, but if by some miracle he comes good we can still cash in on him.

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36 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Oh fair enough. I still don't think he's a good long term answer the our striker problems though. 

We'll just have Gayle back for our season in the Championship next year most likely.

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City to win the league by at least 20 again. Hopefully Everton to go down.

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On 8/7/2018 at 2:13 AM, kaosmark2 said:

They strengthened this season and last. Spurs have spend nothing. Chelski might have a top player leave without replacement. Mourinho breakdown feels imminent. 4 of the top 6 are in a problematic situation.

Chelsea are replacing Courtois with Kepa, have signed Jorginho and look to be getting Kovacic on loan. They've kept all their other players, now have a manager who wants to be there, and were already a better team than Arsenal.

Arsenal have signed an average keeper who it remains to be seen whether he'll even be preferred over Cech (who was awful last season), an average CB who was apparently poor for Dortmund last season (when Arsenal's defence was already a mess), a rotation option at RB, a great DM and a young midfielder for the future. Emery is going to have to have a major positive effect on the team for Arsenal to make top 4 imo.

Spurs have spent nothing but they finished 14 points above Arsenal last season and haven't lost any players. I don't think Arsenal have done enough to close that gap, but I do think Spurs may struggle to make top 4.

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1 hour ago, Gucci Piggy said:

Chelsea are replacing Courtois with Kepa, have signed Jorginho and look to be getting Kovacic on loan. They've kept all their other players, now have a manager who wants to be there, and were already a better team than Arsenal.

Arsenal have signed an average keeper who it remains to be seen whether he'll even be preferred over Cech (who was awful last season), an average CB who was apparently poor for Dortmund last season (when Arsenal's defence was already a mess), a rotation option at RB, a great DM and a young midfielder for the future. Emery is going to have to have a major positive effect on the team for Arsenal to make top 4 imo.

Spurs have spent nothing but they finished 14 points above Arsenal last season and haven't lost any players. I don't think Arsenal have done enough to close that gap, but I do think Spurs may struggle to make top 4.

Bear in mind the Kepa news came out in the hours since I posted that. And Hazard still might leave. I'd also put Chelsea to finish 3rd anyway.

A great DM is the player Arsenal needed. More than anything else. I also think that Aubamayang will do a lot better this season after a few months with the team and a pre-season than he did after signing in January, and it's not like he was that bad before. 

Arsenal played really badly between January and when Wenger's departure was announced (late March? April?). They performed below their capabilities last season (as did Chelsea), and have a new manager and new signings. Spurs are staying still squad-wise, which generally leads to regression points wise. If any of Kane/Eriksson/Son get injured, they don't have a good enough replacement.

Short of Hazard being sold or some other disaster, I'm confident Chelsea will finish top 4, now the Courtois mess has been resolved. Then it's a 3-way battle to mess-up less and claim the remaining CL spot. I think the new manager bounce and a respectable transfer window is enough for Arsenal to push it close. Unless Man U have the sense to fire Moani after his first crazy rant.

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35 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Bear in mind the Kepa news came out in the hours since I posted that. And Hazard still might leave. I'd also put Chelsea to finish 3rd anyway.

A great DM is the player Arsenal needed. More than anything else. I also think that Aubamayang will do a lot better this season after a few months with the team and a pre-season than he did after signing in January, and it's not like he was that bad before. 

Arsenal played really badly between January and when Wenger's departure was announced (late March? April?). They performed below their capabilities last season (as did Chelsea), and have a new manager and new signings. Spurs are staying still squad-wise, which generally leads to regression points wise. If any of Kane/Eriksson/Son get injured, they don't have a good enough replacement.

Short of Hazard being sold or some other disaster, I'm confident Chelsea will finish top 4, now the Courtois mess has been resolved. Then it's a 3-way battle to mess-up less and claim the remaining CL spot. I think the new manager bounce and a respectable transfer window is enough for Arsenal to push it close. Unless Man U have the sense to fire Moani after his first crazy rant.

Yeah fair enough on the Kepa thing. He wasn't really in the discussion before that.

Yeah, I agree on the DM thing and Aubameyang for Arsenal, but even with Aubameyang doing more this year, conceding goals was their problem, not scoring them.

I'm with you on City, Pool and Chelsea being the most likely teams to get top 4. Anything could happen with United; wouldn't be overly surprised by them finishing 2nd or 6th. Hoping it's closer to the latter.

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Utd can win the league. Finished 2nd last year, have invested wisely, tactical genius of a manager.

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53 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

So Pogba wants away from the Special Once, and I guess he'll play like last season if he doesn't.

Who would United fans prefer? A happy, motivated and tactically uninhibited Pogba, Martial & Shaw... or Jose?

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7 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Utd can win the league. Finished 2nd last year, have invested wisely, tactical genius of a manager.

But but but ... Liverpool have bought "everyone" - where "everyone" is one more than Jose currently and one less than Jose wants to buy. :P

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42 minutes ago, Gucci Piggy said:

Yeah fair enough on the Kepa thing. He wasn't really in the discussion before that.

Yeah, I agree on the DM thing and Aubameyang for Arsenal, but even with Aubameyang doing more this year, conceding goals was their problem, not scoring them.

I'm with you on City, Pool and Chelsea being the most likely teams to get top 4. Anything could happen with United; wouldn't be overly surprised by them finishing 2nd or 6th. Hoping it's closer to the latter.

If Arsenal are 2-0 up rather than 1-0 up off a period of attacking, then it's harder for a team to press mistakes out of them or get a set piece and grab a late goal or two to shift the points, and a stronger counter-attacking threat makes it harder for teams to commit men forward. More goals can help the defense. Although the inverse also works. Either way, I think Torreira is probably worth 8-10 points for them. If Aubameyang gets them another 6, that's the gap to Spurs covered. 

All speculative of course, but I do think Emery will reverse Arsenal's decline, I'm just not sure how quickly. If Spurs have a bad injury to Kane/Eriksson, or fail to sign anyone this window and next, Arsenal definitely could catch them up. 

I'm hoping Man U and Mourinho fuck up hilariously. I'm probably being overly optimistic in its likelihood but it's definitely possible.

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45 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But but but ... Liverpool have bought "everyone" - where "everyone" is one more than Jose currently and one less than Jose wants to buy. :P

Pogba and Romy cost more than the 4 punters we signed. Both elite of the elite footie players. People writing Utd off are a bit mad.

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So the Chelsea/Kepa deals have gone through. £71m seems a lot but the kid looks really promising but I wonder if he'll actually get time to settle at Chelsea in the way De Get did. I'm surprised at the amount of hate Chelsea fans are giving Courtois for leaving, won two league titles with them and only really pushed for a move cos it was now or never to go to Madrid with his family.

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7 hours ago, Dan R said:

So the Chelsea/Kepa deals have gone through. £71m seems a lot but the kid looks really promising but I wonder if he'll actually get time to settle at Chelsea in the way De Get did. I'm surprised at the amount of hate Chelsea fans are giving Courtois for leaving, won two league titles with them and only really pushed for a move cos it was now or never to go to Madrid with his family.

it's pretty rare for rated young goalies to keep that form going forwards. Just think of all the good young goalies that have been lauded as being long-termers for England. None have lasted more than a few years before people have decided they're not so great after all.

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9 hours ago, Dan R said:

So the Chelsea/Kepa deals have gone through. £71m seems a lot but the kid looks really promising but I wonder if he'll actually get time to settle at Chelsea in the way De Get did. I'm surprised at the amount of hate Chelsea fans are giving Courtois for leaving, won two league titles with them and only really pushed for a move cos it was now or never to go to Madrid with his family.

The family stuff is just stuff his agent pushed in the media. Not reporting for training and forcing a move through last minute is pretty unprofessional IMO

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11 hours ago, Dan R said:

So the Chelsea/Kepa deals have gone through. £71m seems a lot but the kid looks really promising but I wonder if he'll actually get time to settle at Chelsea in the way De Get did. I'm surprised at the amount of hate Chelsea fans are giving Courtois for leaving, won two league titles with them and only really pushed for a move cos it was now or never to go to Madrid with his family.

Kepa is great. Real wanted him in Jan when his release clause was like 20m but Zidane was against it so as not to upset squad harmony. It's a big fee but he's a great young keeper on a 7 year contract. If they'd spent £30m on Butland or soneone instead they'd be looking to replace him after not too long and would probably end up spending more than £70m on keepers within 7 years, anyway.

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

it's pretty rare for rated young goalies to keep that form going forwards. Just think of all the good young goalies that have been lauded as being long-termers for England. None have lasted more than a few years before people have decided they're not so great after all.

That's because young English players are always overhyped by us despite not actually being great. No keepers who were lauded as long-termers for England would ever have a Champions League team wanting them for £70m, or have Real Madrid interested in them.

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Deadline day and Newcastle need a LB, CB and No 10. 

Also they club have spent only 17m this window and have a net spend of -30m.

Every penny generated was what Mike said Rafa could spend. Lying bastard!

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3 hours ago, zahidf said:

The family stuff is just stuff his agent pushed in the media. Not reporting for training and forcing a move through last minute is pretty unprofessional IMO

Whether or not it was pushed by his agent, the family stuff will always have an effect. And it was hardly forced through last minute, Chelsea just seemed to struggle in finding a keeper. While I'm not a fan of players missing work to get what they want, but two days training is hardly the worst thing.

1 hour ago, Gucci Piggy said:

Kepa is great. Real wanted him in Jan when his release clause was like 20m but Zidane was against it so as not to upset squad harmony. It's a big fee but he's a great young keeper on a 7 year contract. If they'd spent £30m on Butland or soneone instead they'd be looking to replace him after not too long and would probably end up spending more than £70m on keepers within 7 years, anyway.

That's because young English players are always overhyped by us despite not actually being great. No keepers who were lauded as long-termers for England would ever have a Champions League team wanting them for £70m, or have Real Madrid interested in them.

He's absolutely quality imo, could be one of the best in the world. And goalkeeper fees are only catching up with the rest of overinflated transfer fees in other positions. My doubt about him is he's never lived away from northern Spain, he's gonna need time to adjust to a new home, culture, league,  and style of football. And Chelsea are hardly renowned for giving anyone a long bedding in period.

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Mina, Bernard and Gomes with possibly a loan before 7pm (Zouma?)  Haven't a clue how they'll play but a tiny bit more confident about the new season now.

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Well we signed a left back, but holy shit Fulham's business. I'd thought they'd done plenty before today to stay up.

Bargain of the day seems like Lucas Perez. £4m seems like excellent business for West Ham, I'd have loved us to sign him.

I feel like we might end up having a similar season to last, struggling first half, make one or two signings and January and get a bit of space from the bottom. Our squad is definitely better than it was last year, but the three teams that went down last year feel a lot weaker than the ones that came up.

I don't think, in terms of how the squad's changed, it's as bad a window for us as many (Rafa inc.) are making out. Schar is hopefully good enough to cover Lejeune's injury; Fernandez is the option we needed at left back to compete with Dummett; Ki probably isn't quite as good as Merino but it seems like Merino wasn't willing to fight for his place; we got Dubravka made permanent which was vital after 3 years of sketchy keeping leading to January; Kenedy returning is a big plus. The big worry is up front, are Rondon and Muto actually better than Mitrovic and Gayle, or are they just the next cheap strikers we're going to try? Going to need Ayoze to keep his scoring record from the tail end of last season though. 

Need that £20m profit invested in January though, I still feel we're a striker and attacking midfielder light.

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