Weather 2017

[Dave_c]

2 minutes ago, brettredmayne said:

Will take this please

I'd take that now if it was on offer.

[briddj]

This morning's GFS chart pretty consistent with yesterday evening's. Less rain and no longer the Sheeran Soaking. 

SCORCHIO! 

[Spindles]

Ventusky picture has gone to shit for the Sunday now, basically cooling saturday then varying between drizzle and lobbing it down through Sunday.  Obviously that's at the furthest edge of the prediction based on latest data, so subject to change.  Throughout the last few days it looks like the chance of rain keeps getting pushed further back, just needs a little nudge further and I'll be happier.

[Wilfko]

Trending in the right direction which is positive. Couple more days of a similar outlook and I'll be confident we will be alright.

 

Plus I've learned shit loads about weather forecasting.

[maclauk]

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

55 minutes ago, brettredmayne said:

Will take this please

Just a note of caution, further to my post a few pages back at this exact stage before last year the BBC/Met office were predicting a completely dry festival.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Accuweather suggesting an exact re-run of 2015. Yes yes and more yes.

(I know it didn't rain on Thursday in 2015 but Fri-Sun is a carbon copy)

Edited June 16, 2017 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[briddj]

30 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Ventusky picture has gone to shit for the Sunday now, basically cooling saturday then varying between drizzle and lobbing it down through Sunday.  Obviously that's at the furthest edge of the prediction based on latest data, so subject to change.  Throughout the last few days it looks like the chance of rain keeps getting pushed further back, just needs a little nudge further and I'll be happier.

GFS now has that rain on Monday.

[Arcticz Liam]

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Just a note of caution, further to my post a few pages back at this exact stage before last year the BBC/Met office were predicting a completely dry festival.

Worth bearing in mind. However the other various models last year weren't showing a dry festival, correct?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Arcticz Liam said:

Worth bearing in mind. However the other various models last year weren't showing a dry festival, correct?

Yes, the good news is all the other models at this stage were all relatively accurate, although none of them got it spot on and most didn't predict rain for Sunday. They all predicted some rain and a shit load on the Monday, which we know happened for sure. BBC however predicted no rain at all throughout the festival which of course was wrong. 

Edited June 16, 2017 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Homer]

25 minutes ago, maclauk said:

 

That's reminiscent of 2004 (this post is dedicated to @stuartbert two bats).

In that year, though, the rain came on the Sunday and by that point it really didn't matter.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

 

That's reminiscent of 2004 (this post is dedicated to @stuartbert two bats).

In that year, though, the rain came on the Sunday and by that point it really didn't matter.

Nah, you're thinking 03, when there was a sprinkle Friday morning and then rain started during Moby (Sunday headliner).

2004 was borderline storms on Wednesday (crazy wind), ground dried out by Thurs pm, scorching Friday, then heavy overnight rain which made the ground turn. Then got sun and showers rest of fest (including some brief showers during McCartney). 

 

 

[Homer]

Just now, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Nah, you're thinking 03, when there was a sprinkle Friday morning and then rain started during Moby (Sunday headliner).

2004 was borderline storms on Wednesday (crazy wind), ground dried out by Thurs pm, scorching Friday, then heavy overnight rain which made the ground turn. Then got sun and showers rest of fest (including some brief showers during McCartney). 

 

 

 

I just remembered it being a scorcher and then it pissed it down during Belle and Sebastian! Well, even better then. Even in 2004, when it had showered previously too, the ground still stood firm.

Belle and Sebastian were still great by the way!

[Mash011]

13 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Accuweather suggesting an exact re-run of 2015. Yes yes and more yes.

(I know it didn't rain on Thursday in 2015 but Fri-Sun is a carbon copy)

I'd take 2015 as long as we can dodge the nasty Friday afternoon storm. Need the sun blazing for Glass Animals.

[Tranquility of Solitude]

2 minutes ago, Mash011 said:

I'd take 2015 as long as we can dodge the nasty Friday afternoon storm. Need the sun blazing for Glass Animals.

as long as it's brief, sometimes you can get lucky with where you are / who you're watching when a storm hits. I was in the acoustic for Stornoway. It was pretty dry in there!

Any Friday storm this year needs to be during Black Honey or Dua Lipa.....

[bsolxiv]

5 minutes ago, Mash011 said:

I'd take 2015 as long as we can dodge the nasty Friday afternoon storm. Need the sun blazing for Glass Animals.

 

Just now, Tranquility of Solitude said:

as long as it's brief, sometimes you can get lucky with where you are / who you're watching when a storm hits. I was in the acoustic for Stornoway. It was pretty dry in there!

Any Friday storm this year needs to be during Black Honey or Dua Lipa.....

You're all crazy, everyone needs to be at Carol Conker and the Chestnuts on Friday.

Bliss....

[Homer]

Looks like no one is predicting conditions that would create a mudbath anyway, which we would prob have at least a sniff of by now - especially the heavy rain that would be 'needed' in the run-up. All looking good!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

We were in the JP at the time, a mate wanted to watch Circa Waves so it didn't really affect us. It dried out so quickly I was back in trainers a few hours later.

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

Looks like no one is predicting conditions that would create a mudbath anyway, which we would prob have at least a sniff of by now - especially the heavy rain that would be 'needed' in the run-up. All looking good!

Next weekend still isn't certain. There could still be a deluge Saturday/Sunday. Don't get complacent!

Most of next week is looking safe, however.

[Homer]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Next weekend still isn't certain. There could still be a deluge Saturday/Sunday. Don't get complacent!

Most of next week is looking safe, however.

 

I'm just saying, you generally need a lot of the rain before and during the fest to get a mudbath. So hopefully we will be okay.

 

Dry site when we kick off and then showers during the fest is fine by me (I've seen some horrendous things over the years, soi will happily take that every time!).

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

16 minutes ago, Homer said:

 

I just remembered it being a scorcher and then it pissed it down during Belle and Sebastian! Well, even better then. Even in 2004, when it had showered previously too, the ground still stood firm.

Belle and Sebastian were still great by the way!

Yep I was watching them too - Other stage - rain was fairly brief. 

Great sunsets that year. 

[uscore]

7 minutes ago, Homer said:

Looks like no one is predicting conditions that would create a mudbath anyway, which we would prob have at least a sniff of by now - especially the heavy rain that would be 'needed' in the run-up. All looking good!

nothing can possibli go wrong.

[Aragorn]

0z GFS was good. Dry almost all the fest. I'd bank it. ECMWF best improve in an hour or 2 messy again

 

ECMWF has better verication stats than GFS let's hope it's wrong this time

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

 

I'm just saying, you generally need a lot of the rain before and during the fest to get a mudbath. So hopefully we will be okay.

 

Dry site when we kick off and then showers during the fest is fine by me (I've seen some horrendous things over the years, soi will happily take that every time!).

Yeah, I'm just scared, worried and petrified about people thinking it's a done deal and us all getting bitten on the bum!

If we're still in this place on Monday evening, then we can think about getting the bunting out!

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

5 minutes ago, briddj said:

Next weekend still isn't certain. There could still be a deluge Saturday/Sunday. Don't get complacent!

Most of next week is looking safe, however.

This. 

Generally a really positive picture, but there is still more than enough time for heavy rain to develop for next weekend. Not saying it will but long way to go yet.