Weather thread 2015

[rubenz]

I like it when Monday 22nd shows up on the BBC 10 day forecast thing (although I appreciate this is probably wildly inaccurate)

Currently showing 19 degrees with sun.

[Padgey]

Today's Acuweather seems to be almost a mirror image of last year: very sunny on Wednesday, less so Thursday, heavy rain Friday, showers Saturday and sun again on Sunday. Just no storm this time. I wouldn't stick on that though - I'd take my chances.

Doesn't Accuweather update around midday? The week before would be ideal.

[swede]

And packing up a tent in the rain is the worst. Much rather a wet Wednesday than a wet Monday

Are you crazy my friend . If it rains on the Monday you can dry out once you get to your car after packing up. You'd have to set up in Wednesday rain, some people have more than one trip to the car, the site gets churned up and fucked from all the people arriving, plus it's not the best start bimbling about in the rain once your set up

[blackred]

Today's Acuweather seems to be almost a mirror image of last year: very sunny on Wednesday, less so Thursday, heavy rain Friday, showers Saturday and sun again on Sunday. Just no storm this time. I wouldn't stick on that though - I'd take my chances.

I'll take this as a positive sign, this time last year most sites were predicting the heatwave wouldn't break down until after the festival. I hope they are equally wrong this year!

[Keithy]

I bloody love the annual weather thread with all the graphs and geekiness.

[The Nal]

Forecasts getting worse the closer we get. Low pressure. Just like 2007.

[Bradders]

Forecasts getting worse the closer we get. Low pressure. Just like 2007.

What's in this for you?

[devonhammer]

The 6am run has just come out. Looking better than this morning. On the rainfall chart it shows the rain missing the site until Sunday evening, but there is a lot of low pressure around. The ensemble still shows the operational run with far more rain than any other run and the mean run practically dry.

Could go either way.

[benscheff]

This thread is the goods

[justperfect]

Acuweather seems to have improved since last time I checked (10 mins ago

[filmguy]

The 6am run has just come out. Looking better than this morning. On the rainfall chart it shows the rain missing the site until Sunday evening, but there is a lot of low pressure around. The ensemble still shows the operational run with far more rain than any other run and the mean run practically dry.

Could go either way.

"Could go either way" is the best forecast there is

[Tacopowell]

Its Saturday, Do we still get a chart?

[bennyhana22]

What's in this for you?

You haven't worked out The Nal by now...?

Ben

[Bradders]

You haven't worked out The Nal by now...?

Ben

I actually haven't. I'm guessing it's comedic purposes and though it is quite funny I can't believe someone can be that dedicated to a bit.

[PollyPeach]

Nal's the Glastonbury weather thread pantomime villain isn't he?

[bennyhana22]

I actually haven't. I'm guessing it's comedic purposes and though it is quite funny I can't believe someone can be that dedicated to a bit.

To be honest, I'm not sure if it's just pure negative weather banter for the sake of a laugh, or if there is an element of reverse psychology on The Nal's part - i.e. if I only ever predict a monsoon, it'll all be alright.

My money favours the former, however...

Ben

[deebeedoobee]

Anyone know how much rain the site got yesterday?

Not a lot. It was a bit rainy last night and this morning was drizzle. My garden could have done with a bit more.

It's now bright and warm. The ground was cracking this week and I doubt that small amount of rain made any difference to the ground conditions.

[01seb]

Accuweather now only showing 4mm of rain on the Saturday, and sunny the rest of the festival.

[Swine_Glasto2014]

Stick

[danwood]

Is it me or is there a trend of the morning runs being quite pessismistic and the later runs contradicting what was predicted in the morning? Hoping a seasoned weather watcher can back up/disprove my point.

[frostypaw]

The 6am run has just come out. Looking better than this morning. On the rainfall chart it shows the rain missing the site until Sunday evening, but there is a lot of low pressure around. The ensemble still shows the operational run with far more rain than any other run and the mean run practically dry.

Could go either way.

It's a fairly accepted thing that the midnight run is pessimistic and worst-case heavy

As several folk have already noticed lol. Still wobble room, but this is how the rollercoaster works

[briddj]

Accuweather now has 26 degrees on the Thursday and 27 on the Friday. SCORCHIO!

[devonhammer]

Its Saturday, Do we still get a chart?

Oh go on then. You can see that the operational run (the one for the forecasts) is the most pessimistic. There are loads of models run (look on the left) and the bold red line is the average. Lots of weather sites will be predicting rain because they're using the green line, but it does look like it's out on its own. You can be confident whwn all the models agree, so I'd say that Somerset will be pretty dry until next Sunday.

[Migraine]

What does a third of an inch of rain mean in reality to the site. I'm struggling to put it into context whether that's a significant amount of rain or not. How long a period is that amount of rain over?

[frostypaw]

Oh go on then. You can see that the operational run (the one for the forecasts) is the most pessimistic. There are loads of models run (look on the left) and the bold red line is the average. Lots of weather sites will be predicting rain because they're using the green line, but it does look like it's out on its own. You can be confident whwn all the models agree, so I'd say that Somerset will be pretty dry until next Sunday.

for comparison here's the '06z of the same

ooh. nice trend.