The Weather Thread 2024

[CaledonianGonzo]

Not set in stone yet, but we're definitely on the up and up.

[AdrianH]

Looks like we have resolution on Wednesday/Thursday at long last i.e. warm/dry. It'll be then down to how far south the trough/low pressure gets for the weekend.

 

UKMO has this moving quickly to the north of us where as the GFS is keen (again) on a more unsettled outlook. See where the ECM sits later

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, AdrianH said:

Looks like we have resolution on Wednesday/Thursday at long last i.e. warm/dry. It'll be then down to how far south the trough/low pressure gets for the weekend.

 

UKMO has this moving quickly to the north of us where as the GFS is keen (again) on a more unsettled outlook. See where the ECM sits later

 

So all to play for after Thursday then still?

 

Just this second packed my walking boots into the van

[behindthebunhouse]

12 minutes ago, briddj said:

The GFS is such a little bugger.

showing temps of 14-15 C in the middle of the daytime on sat/sun. Not credible, especially in the context of other models 

[gherkin8r]

1 minute ago, behindthebunhouse said:

showing temps of 14-15 C in the middle of the daytime on sat/sun. Not credible, especially in the context of other models 

Yep this is the way I'm choosing to think about this

[briddj]

Come on, GFS. Let's see you do a u-turn on the weekend! 12Z time!

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Totally dry at 9am, with temps of 21-22.

 

 

A dry day, ignore the wispy blue, and scorchio highs of 25-26.

 

Temps overnight into Thursday of 14-15.

 

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 19-20. That's a downgrade. GFS isn't playing still.

 

Temps overnight into Friday of just 9-10, again cooler than the 06Z.

 

 

Lower temps caused by pressure not quite holding on as much as it did in the previous run. But all still to play for. Latest on the right.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

Completely dry, highs of 18. Same as the last run.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 12 - up a few degrees on the last run.

 

 

This is a small improvement, however. The high just appears to be pushing back in. But will it be able to give us a settled weekend? Latest on the right.

 

 

SATURDAY

 

Showers around all day and temperatures plummet to just 15 degrees, similar to the last run.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 11-12 - down on the last run.

 

 

Very similar pressure picture. GFS ain't having this bounce-back.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

Totally dry, highs of 17, similar to the last run.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 11-12 - down on the last run.

 

 

A much better pressure picture here, but it doesn't do anything for us really.

 

 

SUMMARY

 

It's a small upgrade, overall, as there's much less rain around on Saturday and Sunday, but it's still saying the low is more likely to keep temperatures down. 15 degrees in showers throughout Saturday would not be pleasant.

 

Still too early.

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2024 by briddj

[AdrianH]

3 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

So all to play for after Thursday then still?

 

Just this second packed my walking boots into the van

 

Absolutely - could easily be a completely dry and warm/pleasant festival now but dicey still after Thursday. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Met office still holding firm right up to Saturday 

[behindthebunhouse]

I’m developing a visceral hatred of the GFS model. I reject it and all its works.*
 

*providing it doesn’t eventually swing in line with the other models and show a pleasant end to the festival, in which case I want it to be known that I’ve always liked the GFS and thought it a thoroughly decent cove

Edited June 23, 2024 by behindthebunhouse

[behindthebunhouse]

Haway the nerds

[Euphoricape]

4 minutes ago, behindthebunhouse said:

Haway the nerds

Was just about to post same thing lol. Love those netweather lads!

[Td1988]

For those that have been before, would you say heavy rain in the early part of the festival is worst case as it destroys the ground? 
 

Looks, like a bit uncertain later on, but unlikely to be a washout? 

[TiZuff]

id say if you had to choose, almost everyone would take it raining sunday if the rest of the festival was dry and sunny

[CaledonianGonzo]

3 minutes ago, Td1988 said:

For those that have been before, would you say heavy rain in the early part of the festival is worst case as it destroys the ground? 
 

Looks, like a bit uncertain later on, but unlikely to be a washout? 

The latter days if the festival are farther away from this point in time, so there's less certainty to the forecast. Still lots of time to stabilise.

[Sheffield Steve]

ICON still coming up trumps on the 12z….completely dry festival. 
 

[Sheffield Steve]

Same with the UKMO - this is to Sunday lunchtime but essentially a dry festival:

 

 

and also the ever-optimistic GEM, the 12z also gives a virtually dry festival:

Looking very good ……

[CaledonianGonzo]

Would still rather we were getting these forecasts in 48 hours time - but this is still sweet, sweet reading.

[behindthebunhouse]

Thanks Steve - what are they indicating temperature-wise? 

[danbailey80]

43 minutes ago, Td1988 said:

For those that have been before, would you say heavy rain in the early part of the festival is worst case as it destroys the ground? 
 

Looks, like a bit uncertain later on, but unlikely to be a washout? 

Is the festival has the above weather. I.e just showers on Saturday. You’ll get 3 days of perfect weather a day of slippery mud that dries and then Sunday again fine. Trust me. Stick

[Trunks1993]

8 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Would still rather we were getting these forecasts in 48 hours time - but this is still sweet, sweet reading.

 

2-1 up with 80 mins on the clock. Could still go either way but we’re in a good spot. 

[Sheffield Steve]

51 minutes ago, behindthebunhouse said:

Thanks Steve - what are they indicating temperature-wise? 

Starting tomorrow and give or take a degree either side…

 

24 , 25 , 27 , 23 , 23 , 22 , 22

 

A little too hot to begin with warming up for next weekend now….

[RaphPH]

I’m posting this from the Isle Of Wight festival and it’s been sweltering and dusty all day. 

[Euphoricape]

6 minutes ago, RaphPH said:

I’m posting this from the Isle Of Wight festival and it’s been sweltering and dusty all day. 

Enjoy Green day mate!

[JohnnyUtah24]

McFly are on sky arts here from it, cursing 😡

 

I hope you're a safe distance from it 

[AdrianH]

ECM looks like another virtually dry run. Still time for changes but apart from the GFS, its all looking very promising for the weekend