The Weather Thread 2024

[AdrianH]

The GFS is still at odds with the other models. Crazy and very unusual that we haven't got resolution on the position of the low pressure - it's getting close to 72 hours, yet we have a difference of 1000 miles. 

[Alvoram]

Accumulated rain... Most of it falling between Weds and Sun... 

It's not a deluge though, just some showers. 

 

 

 

Temps

Edited June 22, 2024 by Alvoram

[JMB01]

Struggling to keep up with where we are at with this rollercoaster but is it too early to at least say we should avoid a mud bath ?

 

[AdrianH]

Something is going to have to give tomorrow. Its rare to have such divergence in models within 96 hours - specifics (like rain) are difficult to pin down sometimes but some of the charts are nothing like each other in the slightest.

[rlandy95]

10 minutes ago, JMB01 said:

Struggling to keep up with where we are at with this rollercoaster but is it too early to at least say we should avoid a mud bath ?

 

 

I personally think its standing at a <1% chance of a mudbath, but given that the models are having a horrendous time of pinning literally anything past day 5 down, its still not 0%.

 

There's definitly been an improvement over the last 24 hours and hopefully that trend continues for the next few days. ECMWF does show some hope with a literal brief incursion of poor weather on either Thur/Fri with temps and dryness rebounding for the weekend. But again its just like the literal definition of a knife edge at the moment. Also just to note the 18Z always seems to throw its toys out of the pram, we'll probably wake to a good 00Z or at least a 06Z later in the morning.

 

My thoughts on how things wil pan out (just remember I'm some guy on a forum I have literally no expertise in this)

 

Wednesday - Hot, hot, hot & dry

 

Thursday - Hot, dry + cloud

 

Friday - A little cooler but still nice, humid, cloudy, a few showers

 

Saturday - Warmer, cloud, humid again possibly a few showers

 

Sunday - On par with Saturday for warmth, periods of sun and patches of cloud,

 

 

Edited June 22, 2024 by rlandy95

[Alvoram]

It'll be 2019 all over again... It'll all come together in tomorrow's charts

See this finger, it'll move in bigger, stronger and further North than has been predicted so far, knocking the low to it's East way off up North East towards Russia / Scandinavia, and the finger will stick around for at least a week... Bring a water bottle and Sun Cream!!!



/EndWildSpeculation 🙈😂

[rlandy95]

I feel so strongly this is shaping up to be a repeat of 2022. 

[Alvoram]

3 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

I feel so strongly this is shaping up to be a repeat of 2022. 

We'd all take it... Actually, we'd all snap your hands off. 

[rlandy95]

4 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

We'd all take it... Actually, we'd all snap your hands off. 

 

Met Office seem to agree so far, if it does happen I'll snap my own hands off 😂

 

[Sheffield Steve]

Great stuff from the Canadian GEM on the midnight run.   This is the total rainfall between now and the end of the festival and the Pilton forcefield is in full effect.   
A completely dry festival with temps of 27, 25, 21, 21, 20. 
That would do very nicely….
 

[Jinglebells]

1 minute ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Great stuff from the Canadian GEM on the midnight run.   This is the total rainfall between now and the end of the festival and the Pilton forcefield is in full effect.   
A completely dry festival with temps of 27, 25, 21, 21, 20. 
That would do very nicely….
 

I keep holding on to the GEM - it’s been continuously positive unlike the dickhead GFS this morning 😅

[CaledonianGonzo]

Isn't the GFS less useful at close range?

[Sheffield Steve]

And more significantly, the UKMO has a similar picture this morning…

This is total rainfall to midnight Sunday…virtually nothing. 

 

 

and with pressure rising, and the finger coming in, Sunday would be dry too… 

you can see why MetO are going for dry, dry, dry…

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2024 by Sheffield Steve

[CaledonianGonzo]

 

[Euphoricape]

This mornings gfs got to be a massive outlier then? 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

This mornings gfs got to be a massive outlier then? 

 

Definitely shouldn't be focusing on it at the expense of the Met Office.

[Jinglebells]

ICON 0z is also showing a similar picture to GEM / UKMO. Which I means it must be accurate because it’s German but also a stage in SE corner

[AdrianH]

7 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

This mornings gfs got to be a massive outlier then? 

I thought that yesterday but it had support from its own ensembles. It's massively out of sync with other models though, at least for the Wednesday

[Sheffield Steve]

17 minutes ago, Jinglebells said:

ICON 0z is also showing a similar picture to GEM / UKMO. Which I means it must be accurate because it’s German but also a stage in SE corner

Yep indeed.  ICON total rainfall to midday Sunday.   Virtually no rain throughout the festival. 
 

 

and with a ridge of high pressure moving across, Sunday would be dry too…

 

 

Temperatures with ICON are 25,25,20,15 (!), 17.    Bit of a chilly one for Coldplay……

 

 

 

Edited June 23, 2024 by Sheffield Steve

[Sheffield Steve]

And as the icing on the cake, the ECMWF is much better than yesterday… it still has some rain coming through Thursday evening, but it sends most of the heavy storms further east than yesterdays run…

 

 

and it completely does away with the low pressure from yesterdays run for Saturday and Sunday, to give a dry festival apart from the Thursday evening…
 

 

All in all, apart from the GFS, very positive this morning….

 

[Morris48]

00z ECMWF looking good. Dry Wednesday and most of Thursday before a weak front pushes through into the night bringing some light rain. Importantly like the 12z yesterday it keeps the Spanish plume event to the east. From Friday it then wants to build a ridge of high pressure bringing settled conditions for the rest of the festival

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

This is what I wanted to wake up to! If ECM and UKMO are aligned, we’re heading in the right direction 

[briddj]

So close to Glasto, and yet it feels like we re so far away from all the answers! What will the 00Z tell us?

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Totally dry at 9am, highs of 21-22!

 

 

Light showers during the day. This is nothing, and an UPGRADE. Highs of24-25.

 

Temps overnight into Thursday of 17!

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Some showers around again, but nothing to worry about. Highs of 22-23. UPGRADE!

 

Temps overnight into Friday of 16-17!

 

 

 

Stronger pressure picture. Promising! Latest on the right.

 

FRIDAY

 

Once more there's showers around, but heavier rain misses the site. Lucky. Highs of 19. Not an upgrade.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 14-15.

 

 

Pressure picture is better than the 18Z, but the low is trying to push down from the north. Latest on the right.

 

SATURDAY

 

Light rain around but what's this? High of just 16-17?

 

Temps overnight into Sunday of 11-12.

 

 

 

 

Similarities to the 18Z here, with the low pushing down and affecting temps. Latest on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

Ready for some banter? Showers around and highs of ... 13-14!

 

Temps overnight into Monday of 11-12.

 

 

 

The blob of low pressure sits right on top of us, making it feel like February.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A strange run which started off as an upgrade (good news, more reliable timeframe) but next weekend remains a mystery.

 

This run has to be an outlier for the weekend with those temperatures, but it shows how up in the air it is.

 

So, too many showers in this run, with temperatures dropping and a really poor Sunday. Twist!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[briddj]

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Isn't the GFS less useful at close range?

 

Only if the forecast is bad.

[Mcbatesman]

That pack of Lidl premium sausages I buried at the bottom of the garden seems to be paying off