The Weather Thread 2023

[DeanoL]

Just now, Jose Pose said:

By your own calculations there is a 50% chance it will hit 25 degrees. 

And an 80% chance it'll rain.

So either we're allowed to hope for and post about what weather we would like, and people with either preference are welcome both at the festival and in this thread, or we're not.

Which one is it?

[Alvoram]

ECM

Bad news, that rain dump on Sunday (+/- 1 Day) is happening... Every model is in agreement. 

Good news, very little rain throughout the festival. None after Wednesday. (Thursday's zoomed in UK map shows 0mm over the farm.)

Very light showers on arrival day, as low as 0.5mm - 2mm at it's worst. 

 

The best news is that the ECM agrees with the last GFS run, in that they both think we're getting a good old fingering on Sunday. 

 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

11 days of it reaching 25 at some point in the day or 11 days where the average temp of that day is over 25? Id like to see yur source if it's the former 

Daily max at HadCET. Source was an article linked in the previous post but the data set is available here if you want to verify for yourself: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

[CaledonianGonzo]

3 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

@FuzzyDunlopI do hope you're coming to the efests meet up. It's cracked me up the controversy youve caused on this thread lol

I suspect that this has been going in for close to 10 years now.

[Dave_c]

Talking averages in statistics is pointless really. We would need to look at the actual day temperature for every day of June across multiple years. It'll be a normal bell curve distribution and then we'd need to see how many standard deviations from the mean 25C is. No idea where it would lie but would put money on it that it's outside 1 standard deviation, which means 68% chance it won't happen. At 2 sigma it's 95% chance it won't happen. I'd say it's somewhere in between.

Anyway, statistics lesson over, it'll all be fine and dandy.

[FuzzyDunlop]

1 minute ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

@FuzzyDunlopI do hope you're coming to the efests meet up. It's cracked me up the controversy youve caused on this thread lol

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

[Alvoram]

Just now, FuzzyDunlop said:

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

😂

Ok, that made me chuckle out loud. 

[Jose Pose]

9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

And an 80% chance it'll rain.

So either we're allowed to hope for and post about what weather we would like, and people with either preference are welcome both at the festival and in this thread, or we're not.

Which one is it?

I think you’re getting a bit confused, I never once even mentioned rain and I said rain is normal, I was simply making the point that you’re going to be bitterly disappointed if you’re hoping for cool weather in BST as more often than not you’ll be disappointed.

Your stats for the 11 days over 25 also only go up to 2020, three years ago. In 2022 12 European countries broke temperature records, with the average being 1.9c above the averages recorded in your period of 1991 - 2020. Unless you have a very short memory, you may also recall the UK hit 40 degrees for the first time in history in July of last year, and 2022 was the warmest year ever in the UK.

If you think we’re only going to average 11 days above 25 degrees over the next 10 or so years then you really haven’t been paying much attention to what’s been going on in the world.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Jose Pose

[Skip997]

☺️

1 minute ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

 

[BambooShanks]

1 minute ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

Would something like this keep your body temp a bit more regulated, or is it more the direct sunlight that causes issues?

[fraybentos1]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Daily max at HadCET. Source was an article linked in the previous post but the data set is available here if you want to verify for yourself: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

that says daily mean?

[Alvoram]

Can we crowdfund a faster computer for the GFS? 

 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

06z has improved Weds rainfall but also has a small low developing around Thurs / Fri bringing rain into the West with showers overnight into Friday (and heavier rain in Wales / Manchester)

Edited June 15, 2023 by Glasto Weatherwatch

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

I think you’re getting a bit confused, I never once even mentioned rain and I said rain is normal, I was simply making the point that you’re going to be bitterly disappointed if you’re hoping for cool weather in BST as more often than not you’ll be disappointed.

Your stats for the 11 days over 25 also only go up to 2020, three years ago. In 2022 12 European countries broke temperature records, with the average being 1.9c above the averages recorded in your period of 1991 - 2020. Unless you have short memory you may also recall the UK hot 40 degrees for the first time in history on July of last year, and 2022 was the warmest year ever in the UK.

If you think we’re only going to average 11 days above 25 degrees over the next 10 or so years then you really haven’t been paying much attention to what’s been going on in the world.

 

 

if you go on the bbc weather app then almost everyday for the foreseeable shows up as 25 or above and thats not including the nice spell we have just had. Think there has been over 11 25 degrees days already this year tbh

[marktea]

I’m definitely not wading in to the temperature debate but it reminded me of this graphic at the tent run by Exeter University last year.

[giantkatestacks]

I am setting up on Sunday.😔

[Crazyfool01]

10 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

Don’t take inspiration from Boris … I’ll bring you some ice cubes and a bloody great  pyramid to shelter under 

[Jose Pose]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

if you go on the bbc weather app then almost everyday for the foreseeable shows up as 25 or above and thats not including the nice spell we have just had. Think there has been over 11 25 degrees days already this year tbh

Indeed, it’s because it’s based on an average that goes back to the 90s, when in fact you can see average temps have been tending up since the 70s. Last year was the hottest year on record in the UK, we doubtless had many more days above 25, and we doubtless will going forward. 

[Crazyfool01]

11 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

😂

Ok, that made me chuckle out loud. 

I’m in the queue for pharmacy just had to explain my laughing out loud 

[Jacko45]

17 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

ECM

Bad news, that rain dump on Sunday (+/- 1 Day) is happening... Every model is in agreement. 

Good news, very little rain throughout the festival. None after Wednesday. (Thursday's zoomed in UK map shows 0mm over the farm.)

Very light showers on arrival day, as low as 0.5mm - 2mm at it's worst. 

 

The best news is that the ECM agrees with the last GFS run, in that they both think we're getting a good old fingering on Sunday. 

 

 

I know you've been bombared, but I arrive Tuesday - whats my outlook :) 

[stuartbert two hats]

21 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

ECM

Bad news, that rain dump on Sunday (+/- 1 Day) is happening... Every model is in agreement. 

Good news, very little rain throughout the festival. None after Wednesday. (Thursday's zoomed in UK map shows 0mm over the farm.)

Very light showers on arrival day, as low as 0.5mm - 2mm at it's worst. 

 

The best news is that the ECM agrees with the last GFS run, in that they both think we're getting a good old fingering on Sunday. 

 

Just to clarify - you mean this coming Sunday, not the Sunday of the festival, right?

[frostypaw]

1 hour ago, StePotts said:

I guess, but it's not that helpful for planning what to take lol

Au contraire - better to know that it might be helpful to take a poncho than be told it's wall to wall sunshine then get caught out. You'll complain much more about the latter situation, even if the former puts a tiny dent in your pre-festival excitement

[Sheffield Steve]

Just to illustrate how the GFS is all over the place, here are it’s predictions for 3am on the Friday, in the space of 6 hours.

0z run today, lovely anticyclone over the country, keeping us dry:

 

in the 6z, for exactly the same time, the anticyclone has completely disappeared and a low approaches from the west, bringing us rain during the night:

 

The GFS can’t be relied on for any accuracy just yet….

[briddj]

Right, if the 06Z treats us well it will be absolute delight!

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

Still quite a bit of rain through Sunday, but that certainly comes as no surprise anymore.

Monday and Tuesday completely dry yet again. This is an excellent start with great drying temps of 21 both days.

When the gates open it's dry and 18 degrees. Very pleasant.

Through Wednesday itself, some very, very light afternoon rain - won't notice it. Highs of 21.

THURSDAY

Completely dry, highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Some rain around at 6amish, but really nothing of any concern. Really a completely dry day after that, highs of 22.

SATURDAY

High pressure building in now. Is this a firm trend?

Completely dry, highs of 22.

SUNDAY

Completely dry, highs of 23.

SUMMARY

In your face, 06Z! Another excellent run. We've only had one bad run now out of the last 7.

But let's not get complacent!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by briddj

[koj]

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!!