news & politics:discussion

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

need people to stop eating so much.

 Can absolutely tell that you’re doing totally fine and it’s illustrative of a wider point. You probs have low or no mortgage, so the IR rises haven’t affected you, plenty of cash to spare along with millions of other boomers or Gen Xers who are doing just fine. Go on tell me I’m lying. 
 

Or just misrepresent what I’m saying and claim I’m saying everyone is doing fine when I’m not 

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

Not sure I get your point? Yes some people are cutting back and going for cheaper stuff but also at the same time lots of people aren’t. Marks and Spencer’s is still busy 

Everyone is trading down a level is the point … I mostly see it at the bottom end but from extra special people go to Asda brand and those from Asda brand move to value … it’s definately a thing . Maybe it’s not hit the richest yet but certainly plenty of others … and at the bottom end people will feel it hardest they always do as incomes get squeezed and  as people get savings used up the middle incomes start to get squeezed as  any savings they have get spent . 

[cellar]

Lots of different ways to measure, but this is the latest data from ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/articles/ukeconomylatest/2021-01-25

More people struggling with mortgage rent, and increase of DD failures for energy payments is not good.

On the spending front though, people are spending more in terms of value compared to pre-pandemic levels, just getting less volume. And overall business activity seems to be on the up.

I think the point around savings getting eaten up is a good one... Maybe we will see the impact of those savings run out if this carries on for another year or two.

[Ozanne]

The bakery had a queue of 5 people in it today, we really are in the roaring 20s. 

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

You see people do this all the time, ignore all the facts to cover up from the government’s failings. It’s arguing in bad faith 101.

Sad but true - and I have not now bothered to even read the last replies from such a person as it is pointless................. after all, all seats filled in a cafe obviously means people are lying about being skint and everyone has money.

Still, when climate change really kicks in and we have expanded deserts there will be loads more sand for them to bury their blinkered heads in.

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, cellar said:

Lots of different ways to measure, but this is the latest data from ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/articles/ukeconomylatest/2021-01-25

More people struggling with mortgage rent, and increase of DD failures for energy payments is not good.

On the spending front though, people are spending more in terms of value compared to pre-pandemic levels, just getting less volume. And overall business activity seems to be on the up.

I think the point around savings getting eaten up is a good one... Maybe we will see the impact of those savings run out if this carries on for another year or two.

We had 2 years of economic inactivity where some people have potentially been able to save during covid …. So some potentially may be able to live off that for a bit longer … but we’ve also been paying sky high bills so much of that may already have been eaten away . 

[fraybentos1]

Just now, Nobody Interesting said:

Sad but true - and I have not now bothered to even read the last replies from such a person as it is pointless................. after all, all seats filled in a cafe obviously means people are lying about being skint and everyone has money.

Still, when climate change really kicks in and we have expanded deserts there will be loads more sand for them to bury their blinkered heads in.

Show me where I said this. I have said loads of people are struggling with the cost of living, but I'm making the point that millions of people aren't. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

Show me where I said this. I have said loads of people are struggling with the cost of living, but I'm making the point that millions of people aren't. 

The top end aren’t … it’s like a pyramid surely worst hit low income at the bottom … it won’t be millions at the top 

[fraybentos1]

27 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

Everyone is trading down a level is the point … I mostly see it at the bottom end but from extra special people go to Asda brand and those from Asda brand move to value … it’s definately a thing . Maybe it’s not hit the richest yet but certainly plenty of others … and at the bottom end people will feel it hardest they always do as incomes get squeezed and  as people get savings used up the middle incomes start to get squeezed as  any savings they have get spent . 

Yep absolutely food prices are out of control and plenty people will be opting for cheaper options- not denying that.

My point was never that no one is struggling and everyone is ok, I'm being misrepresented with what I am saying. There is a divide, but there are enough people doing alright that places are still busy and we aren't in recession yet. Sentiment will shift if we go into an official recession and people lose jobs.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Crazyfool01 said:

The top end aren’t … it’s like a pyramid surely worst hit low income at the bottom … it won’t be millions at the top 

28% of the UK own a home outright with no mortgage. Interest rate rises will have had no impact on these people in fact they'll probs be doing better on their savings.

There are literally millions of people either retired on good pensions and own their own home or near retirement, own their own home and get a good wage. These are mainly the people I am talking about. 

[cellar]

1 minute ago, Crazyfool01 said:

We had 2 years of economic inactivity where some people have potentially been able to save during covid …. So some potentially may be able to live off that for a bit longer … but we’ve also been paying sky high bills so much of that may already have been eaten away . 

Yeah, however people have found themselves there, failing DD payments for energy bills and 45% of people worrying about rent/mortgage payments is a scary place to be in.

I guess the fact that on average, people are spending more money than pre-pandemic is because they are using their savings... Trying to think of another explanation - maybe wage rises, but I don't think average wages have gone up by ~17%

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, cellar said:

Yeah, however people have found themselves there, failing DD payments for energy bills and 45% of people worrying about rent/mortgage payments is a scary place to be in.

I guess the fact that on average, people are spending more money than pre-pandemic is because they are using their savings... Trying to think of another explanation - maybe wage rises, but I don't think average wages have gone up by ~17%

Part of what I am getting at is the gap between people like this and the tens of millions of people that live in a house with no mortgage. The latter group is mainly who I am talking about. They're doing just fine.

[lost]

At my place people are still flat out refusing to return to the office. It was bad enough before the school hols but last week I think I spotted 7 people on a floor of over 100 desks.

If companies start to enforce I think suddenly those child care plus commuting costs which have been absorbing rising prices will start to slow down spending.

[Ozanne]

31 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Sad but true - and I have not now bothered to even read the last replies from such a person as it is pointless................. after all, all seats filled in a cafe obviously means people are lying about being skint and everyone has money.

Still, when climate change really kicks in and we have expanded deserts there will be loads more sand for them to bury their blinkered heads in.

It’s from the same adage of ‘cancel Netflix to afford a deposit on a house’. It’s just nonsense and shows either a complete lack of awareness for how difficult many are finding it at the moment or a willingness to ignoring the facts to cover for government failings.

When you see the levels of child poverty the fact many simply have to chose between heating and eating in the winter it shines a horrible light on the economic situation in this country and that’s before interest rates went up!

[Neil]

38 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The bakery had a queue of 5 people in it today, we really are in the roaring 20s. 

my local hippie bakery always has long queues on saturday's, for the sourdough (can't eat those avocado's without it!)and fabulous cake. 

[Ozanne]

Just now, Neil said:

my local hippie bakery always has long queues on saturday's, for the sourdough (can't eat those avocado's without it!)and fabulous cake. 

More evidence of the booming economy. 

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

More evidence of the booming economy. 

it's boom-time for social workers, and rewilding contractors, and those e-commerce start-up sock darners, and coffee roasters. and independent cafes

Edited August 5, 2023 by Neil

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s from the same adage of ‘cancel Netflix to afford a deposit on a house’. It’s just nonsense and shows either a complete lack of awareness for how difficult many are finding it at the moment or a willingness to ignoring the facts to cover for government failings.

When you see the levels of child poverty the fact many simply have to chose between heating and eating in the winter it shines a horrible light on the economic situation in this country and that’s before interest rates went up!

Coming from the man who was supporting the two child cap the other week, this is quite something.

[steviewevie]

On tram. Half full. 

[steviewevie]

Or half empty.

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

On tram. Half full. 

Are you a half full or half empty kind of guy ? 

[Crazyfool01]

52 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Or half empty.

ha ha ... the page just went over and I hadn't read this one 🙂 

[kaosmark2]

6 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

Not sure I get your point? Yes some people are cutting back and going for cheaper stuff but also at the same time lots of people aren’t. Marks and Spencer’s is still busy 

If the middle classes who are ordering home delivery are taking up the discount/value products, the poorest who need them have a high increase in price.

Financial struggles have a greater "trickle down" effect than growth/wealth does.

[kaosmark2]

5 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

Unemployment remains low, that’s a fact. Won’t be till that gets higher that things start to break. 
 

cba repeating myself again, lots of people are struggling and lots of people are still out there spending sh*t loads of money. Isn’t really contentious.

Under-employment is rising though. A massive trick that's been pulled over the last 20 years (and it does date back into New Labour, it's not a Tory-exclusive thing), is saying unemployment is really low - while lots of people are on part-time hours not getting enough.

[Justiceforcedave]

It’s almost as if having more of the collective wealth of our country distributed to the lower earners would help keep the cogs turning and be a good thing?

…bring on universal income! Something’s gotta give.