When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

What's the highest number of deaths from flu we've accepted on a daily basis?

 

I dont want to cold about it but if we are looking at it on a broad basis, there are loads of things we could do stop deaths we don't do for wider societal ones. Covid should be looked at in these terms.

I don’t know but do we get 50 people die per day from flu in summer ? Because we aren’t far from that now … and I’d be suprised if we don’t go back to 100 deaths per day again … just looking at how things are now … with delays taken into account … of course it should be looked at in terms of overall deaths 

[incident]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Those heady days of this thread being helpful supportive and considerate of others …. Wonder where that switch got flipped !!!  The deaths seem to be slowly climbing again … (yep I know it’s not as high as before but for the opening everything up people when does that number start causing worries ? ) and yes I know people die from other things 

I don't think it's helpful to set a defined number of deaths as being either acceptable or bad. The context is more important than the absolute number. As a very simple example, 10 deaths on 20 cases is a genuine problem, whereas 10 deaths on five million cases really isn't.

As a better example of where context is needed - there's 2 deaths numbers (actually, there's more than 2, but for the purposes of this comparison 2 is enough) - the number most commonly reported is Deaths within 28 days of a positive test, but the other major metric available is Deaths with COVID-19 on the Death Certificate.

While both have risen slightly, Deaths within 28 days of a postive test has gone from a low of ~6 per day to currently ~22 per day whereas Deaths with COVID mentioned has gone from a low of ~6 to currently ~14 per day. So is all of the (small) reported rise even down to COVID, or just people who've tested positive then died of something else?

When the numbers are this low, it'd be helpful to drill down further into the specifics but that information isn't public knowledge yet.

[kalifire]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

What's the highest number of deaths from flu we've accepted on a daily basis?

I dont want to cold about it but if we are looking at it on a broad basis, there are loads of things we could do stop deaths we don't do for wider societal ones. Covid should be looked at in these terms.

Not sure what you mean by “accepted” but there are things we could easily do to reduce health issues caused by seasonal flu. That we don’t is not a good argument for not doing anything about something unseasonal and more threatening. 

[BobWillis2]

 

Long covid 2nd most common symptom, lack of taste and smell. It’s not really the debilitating crisis we’ve been led to believe is it? 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, incident said:

I don't think it's helpful to set a defined number of deaths as being either acceptable or bad. The context is more important than the absolute number. As a very simple example, 10 deaths on 20 cases is a genuine problem, whereas 10 deaths on five million cases really isn't.

As a better example of where context is needed - there's 2 deaths numbers (actually, there's more than 2, but for the purposes of this comparison 2 is enough) - the number most commonly reported is Deaths within 28 days of a positive test, but the other major metric available is Deaths with COVID-19 on the Death Certificate.

While both have risen slightly, Deaths within 28 days of a postive test has gone from a low of ~6 per day to currently ~22 per day whereas Deaths with COVID mentioned has gone from a low of ~6 to currently ~14 per day. So is all of the (small) reported rise even down to COVID, or just people who've tested positive then died of something else?

When the numbers are this low, it'd be helpful to drill down further into the specifics but that information isn't public knowledge yet.

I’m not sure I go with the difference on that deaths within 28 days of a positive test line … those people aren’t going to be active members of society in that time they are going to likely be ill at home and isolating or in hospital working their way unfortunately towards icu and not making it through … the numbers that won’t be are surely going to be absolutely tiny … unless I’ve completely misunderstood … 

[Guest]

 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I don’t know but do we get 50 people die per day from flu in summer ? Because we aren’t far from that now … and I’d be suprised if we don’t go back to 100 deaths per day again … just looking at how things are now … with delays taken into account … of course it should be looked at in terms of overall deaths 

But then as per the tweets I posted earlier, we get an exit wave in Autumn and winter which would be worse.

 

No good options at this stage.

[Guest]

 

[incident]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

I’m not sure I go with the difference on that deaths within 28 days of a positive test line … those people aren’t going to be active members of society in that time they are going to likely be ill at home and isolating or in hospital working their way unfortunately towards icu and not making it through … the numbers that won’t be are surely going to be absolutely tiny … unless I’ve completely misunderstood … 

Basically - people are being tested on their way into hospital. An infection will get picked up even if they're not showing any COVID symptoms, and are in hospital for something entirely unrelated.

If they then die of that something unrelated, the fact that they did test positive means that they show up on the "within 28 days of a positive test" number.

The number of deaths at the moment is way, way too low to make any definitive judgement on this - but it's noticeable to me that in the previous waves, the "COVID metioned" number was generally higher than the "28 days" number - and right now it's actually the other way around albeit both sets of numbers are in the low double digits.

[steviewevie]

16 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Again, wall to wall media coverage that we shouldnt reopen in the lead up to the date. This will happen every single time.

Yeah I wish they'd shut up and just go along with it.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

But then as per the tweets I posted earlier, we get an exit wave in Autumn and winter which would be worse.

 

No good options at this stage.

But, this is from models that are often incorrect because of all the uncertainty, right? And they haven't taken into account autumn boosters or vaxxing teenagers in their calculations.

[Guest]

 

[steviewevie]

Cases on the rise again in S Korea...never ending shit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/10/seoul-heads-for-lockdown-as-infections-spiral-in-south-korea

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

This should help.

we might have to just accept there are going to be a lot of deaths throughout the year from covid, maybe up to 20k?...but as long as spread throughout the year and not all in one season like flu then maybe health services can cope ok...if covid deaths are worse in winter, which is very likely, and we get a bad flu season, then we could have a problem.

Edited July 10, 2021 by steviewevie

[Guest]

 

[Crazyfool01]

4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

This should help. Also more info here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending18june2021?fbclid=IwAR3ppel3OBHIn6HDAznUmFpZU6YV1gZSlLX1GzLdJc1bt4S326rJdnxdbMg

thanks I hadn't realised quite how spread flu was throughout the year tbh 

[zahidf]

28 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

But, this is from models that are often incorrect because of all the uncertainty, right? And they haven't taken into account autumn boosters or vaxxing teenagers in their calculations.

James ward has. That's who I posted.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

James ward has. That's who I posted.

oh...ok....he does seem to know his stuff,....

[steviewevie]

The other problem health services are going to have to cope with is long covid. I know some on here seem to think it's overblown or whatever, and I have no idea, but it does get a lot of media so I think for a lot of people it is a big problem. I know NHS are setting up specialist wards etc to deal with it, and hopefully vaccines reduce the problem, but it could well be an ongoing thing for many people. Hopefully they find better drugs and stuff to help people with it.

[Simsy]

55 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

 

Long covid 2nd most common symptom, lack of taste and smell. It’s not really the debilitating crisis we’ve been led to believe is it? 

So what you're saying is fatigue, concentration problems and memory problems are 3 of the 4 most common symptoms? That sounds like it could be debilitating, would impact on people's ability to work or live their life as normal.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Quite frankly - nobody knows.

All we can do is ask experts what they think and try and take the best way forward. Mitigation will be needed for Covid for years to come and when we get a bad flu year on top things might get really bad, or they might not.

Life will never be the same again and anyone who really thinks it will is deluding themselves. We have to live with Covid and rightly so - but we have to do so sensibly making changes when it is obvious they are needed. A government that refuses to budge is a dangerous government.

All I know personally is that in our family lives we need to do what we can when we can but will do so carefully and will always think of others as many are not as 'care free' as we might be - though we have no idea how we will react to being in a crowd at a festival until we do it. It will feel odd I think.

If we are just going to 'live with it' as government bangs on about then that has to be in all parts of life including international travel.

They cannot say we are free and then stop us doing things - half my work is overseas in countries on the red list. I do not feel like freedom is coming my way.

for nobody interesting you talk a lot of sense.

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

And will inevitably fade if there aren’t massive issues ? Would you agree ? 

No because the goal posts shift every time. If all else fails it will be because not enough children are vaccinated. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Matt42 said:

No because the goal posts shift every time. If all else fails it will be because not enough children are vaccinated. 

Covid should become less of a thing in time though … covid stories won’t generate clicks and revenue like they do now 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

The goal posts of responses shift as does the action if the virus itself.

If we, the supposed intelligent human race, are not flexible and willing to move goal posts as needed based on best interpretation of information available then we as  a species are doomed given what lies ahead for us.

To live with the virus requires flexibility often at short notice. Can we manage that?

Your comments are true especially for the climate crises in the upcoming years, there might have to be difficult decisions made by governments and society which we might not be ready to make. 

[Crazyfool01]

hopefully more of this kind of shit soon 🙂