When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

On 10/1/2020 at 8:44 AM, Ozanne said:

The graphs are the data set they used to come to that conclusion, well graph B is. Graph A would show an R rate at 1.4. The R=1.7 and R=1.1 are the slopes within the little regions on graph B. But the data there is fairly noisy, and the lines don't join up in a sensible way. Whereas graph A gives a more coherent picture across time periods and has no slowing down at all.

For reference the 2 graphs mean:

A models fit to REACT-1 data for sequential rounds; 1 and 2 (yellow), 2 and 3 (blue), 3 and 4 (green) and 4 and 5 (pink). B models fit to individual rounds only (red). Vertical lines show 95% confidence intervals for observed prevalence (black points).

 

In the report by Imperial College they show the following results. Using data from rounds 4 and 5 and we estimate a doubling time of 10.6 (9.4, 12.0) days covering the period 20th August to 26th September 2020 using a model of exponential growth and decay. This
4 corresponds to a reproduction number R of 1.47 (1.40, 1.53) (Table 2, Figure 2A). However, using only the most recent data we observe a more gradual slope (Figure 2B), with an estimated reproduction number of 1.06 (0.74, 1.46) and 63% probability that R is greater than 1 (Table 2).

 

They also state that prevalence of swab positivity had increased to over 1 in 200 across the population in England.

 

So whilst they said before that R=1.7 (and now down to 1.1) that was based on the graph showing a noisy data set whereas it’s probably been more in the middle when using data covering the period as a whole and doesn’t really show a slowing down. 

Looks like the figures from Graph A were correct. R=1.4 seems fairly accurate now. Looks like good analysis now 😝

 

In all seriousness R rate going up isn’t a good sign however we do have good measures in place to protect us now including better testing and tracing. The rise isn’t as strong as in March as well. But it’s still signs that before winter prevalence of the virus is rising.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, tigger123 said:

This doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough in the press for me, it’s all well and good having the hospitals, the ventilators etc but if you don’t have anyone to treat the patients then they’re redundant! 

its not like boris likes vanity projects is it ?!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_Bridge

water cannon spring to mind too ..... 

 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Looks like the figures from Graph A were correct. R=1.4 seems fairly accurate now. Looks like good analysis now 😝

 

In all seriousness R rate going up isn’t a good sign however we do have good measures in place to protect us now including better testing and tracing. The rise isn’t as strong as in March as well. But it’s still signs that before winter prevalence of the virus is rising.

doomster

[tigger123]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

its not like boris likes vanity projects is it ?!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_Bridge

water cannon spring to mind too ..... 

 

You’re completely right, wasn’t he boasting about how many ventilators we had in the press conference couple days ago 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

This doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough in the press for me, it’s all well and good having the hospitals, the ventilators etc but if you don’t have anyone to treat the patients then they’re redundant! 

yeah, god knows what would have happened if they started having to fill up these hospitals with patients...I wonder what actual plan was. Proper dystopian stuff.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Let’s have less than 7000 cases today please. I’m feeling optimistic so my guess is 6961

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, god knows what would have happened if they started having to fill up these hospitals with patients...I wonder what actual plan was. Proper dystopian stuff.

mortuaries  

[steviewevie]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

mortuaries  

I think I read they were planning on putting the less severe patients in the Nightingales, the ones who didn't need ventilators...so freeing up beds in hospitals. But, I'm not sure if I did read it or I dreamt it or I'm just making it up.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Let’s have less than 7000 cases today please. I’m feeling optimistic so my guess is 6961

I'm going for 25000.

[steviewevie]

London marathon this weekend, sort of.

[Copperface]

14 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

This doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough in the press for me, it’s all well and good having the hospitals, the ventilators etc but if you don’t have anyone to treat the patients then they’re redundant! 

https://twitter.com/DrAnimeshSingh/status/1311359974707286020?s=20

[steviewevie]

At least we can listen to the Whales sing now.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/02/humpback-whales-sing-alaska-covid-summer-researchers

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, steviewevie said:

I think I read they were planning on putting the less severe patients in the Nightingales, the ones who didn't need ventilators...so freeing up beds in hospitals. But, I'm not sure if I did read it or I dreamt it or I'm just making it up.

these SHOULD be for covid only .... keep the covid to specific sites and the workers ..... keep the risk of transmission and closure of other facilities to a minimum ... but first we would need the staff to treat people at them ... where my plan fails 

[Crazyfool01]

maybe we could bring in some trained staff from other countries that aren't struggling so badly with second waves .... China and Italy maybe ... we have good ~EU  relationships dont we  

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

these SHOULD be for covid only .... keep the covid to specific sites and the workers ..... keep the risk of transmission and closure of other facilities to a minimum ... but first we would need the staff to treat people at them ... where my plan fails 

yeah, I meant those with covid, but didn't require ventilators.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, I meant those with covid, but didn't require ventilators.

I know the nightingales were being fitted up with oxygen .... not sure what else they would need to make them fully functional for all covid cases now we have this spare ventilator capacity ? 

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I know the nightingales were being fitted up with oxygen .... not sure what else they would need to make them fully functional for all covid cases now we have this spare ventilator capacity ? 

Probably electricity? Beds might help too?

[Leyrulion]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think I read they were planning on putting the less severe patients in the Nightingales, the ones who didn't need ventilators...so freeing up beds in hospitals. But, I'm not sure if I did read it or I dreamt it or I'm just making it up.

 

39 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

I know the Manchester one was set up for non covid procedures too unlike most of the other that are covid only

Not sure if Manchester one is being used now, but the biggest issue with these nightingale hospitals is they don't have enough skilled staff to keep them running. As is was staff from hospitals doing extra shifts in the nightingale ones

They have all these extra ventilators and ICU units but not enough skilled staff to utilise them... if only they used the last 6 months training in preparation??

Different Nightingale Hospitals did different things. 

Manchester's was a step down hospital which was for COVID patients coming out of ICU who needed less intense treatment as they recovered to free up space in hospitals. 

London's was essentially one massive ICU. 

The Manchester one is currently mothballed in case it needs to be re-opened in the winter.

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Probably electricity? Beds might help too?

They had those ... believe it or not   

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

They had those ... believe it or not   

That’s a good start. 

[Ozanne]

SAGE have increased the overall R estimate.

 

[steviewevie]

 

[gigpusher]

4 hours ago, zahidf said:

Ha

I nearly spat my coffee onto my keyboard at that!! I must be a bad person!

[Homer]

6 hours ago, zahidf said:

Trump foundation and embezzlement.

Money laundering - mainly for Russia.

[kingbadger]

16 hours ago, Homer said:

Where abouts in Sicily please? Only been to Sardinia before.

Aci Castello. Just above Catania, beautiful place. Here's a link to the BnB in question:

http://www.lascivolarooms.it/en/