When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Chapple12345 said:

We've seen in the last few weeks it go vary and there being catch up days every now and then, we need to wait and see what the next few days are before getting too worried 

to me it looks like the same path as france and spain unfortunately ..... hopefully you are right but I fear you aren't 

[gizmoman]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

2,988 are you f***ing joking me!?!?

Why are you so hysterical? Go look again at the graphs Ozanne posted, this virus has not been an issue since the beginning of July, The number of hospitalisations and deaths has gone down to a negligible number (in the context of 67 million population) the only reason the case numbers are up are more tests, just compare the graphs. It is possible we will start to see an uptick as winter comes but it's not a certainty and we can deal with it then if it happens. Calm down man!

[Ozanne]

The 7 day average shows a very clear upward line now, which cuts off before todays case count. Numbers are starting to rise quickly now which before winter is concerning.

[Chapple12345]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

to me it looks like the same path as france and spain unfortunately ..... hopefully you are right but I fear you aren't 

It's still nowhere near the rate of the first peak which is still encouraging, we just need to hope other factors such as hospitalizations and deaths remain at a stable and low level, I'm also remaining more positive (sorry for the use of the word) of how much more we know now than we did lockdown.

My other take is that these new cases are a lot more localised and represent all community settings as opposed to purely inside hospitals 

 

[FestivalJamie]

6 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

The number of hospitalisations and deaths has gone down to a negligible number (in the context of 67 million population) the only reason the case numbers are up are more tests, 

Yes deaths have gone down but hospitalisations are actually on the rise again. Testing numbers are no longer increasing in fact it is actually difficult to get an appointment at a drive in testing centre and people are being sent hundreds of miles, the positivity rate is increasing whether we like it or not, stop trying to make excuses to justify it.

I don’t particularly think an extra 3000 people who will suffer long term health problems, relapse and potentially chronic conditions with some of them hospitalised is particularly “acceptable”. 

Its not just about the numbers today, it’s about the trend the numbers are taking. An exponential rise in cases leads to an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. There is a 3-4 week lag on increased hospitalisations and deaths from when cases start rising, the numbers aren’t all going to align straight away from when people catch the virus.

Dont call me “hysterical”, your complacent nature is actually the “hysterical” thing going on here.

[squirrelarmy]

Eat out to help out has got a lot of people out in bars and restaurants. This current uptick will be tied to that. If it levels off now and decreases then it should be fine. 
 

See how things go over the next week before judging what is likely to happen long term. 

[FestivalJamie]

Anyway, for comparison:

Germany: +988

Italy: +1297

Both these countries, along with denmark, Cyprus and Iceland use airport testing as their strategy. They are all managing to keep rates lower than countries who do not use airport testing (UK, France, spain).

Edited September 6, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

It's still nowhere near the rate of the first peak which is still encouraging, we just need to hope other factors such as hospitalizations and deaths remain at a stable and low level, I'm also remaining more positive (sorry for the use of the word) of how much more we know now than we did lockdown.

My other take is that these new cases are a lot more localised and represent all community settings as opposed to purely inside hospitals 

 

oh totally the uptick in cases hasn't translated across to hospitalisations and deaths which is obviously a good sign ... Im more positive also but increasing numbers of cases will knock on to somewhere else in the end .... but given what is known we won't get the previous impact hopefully 

[Chapple12345]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Eat out to help out has got a lot of people out in bars and restaurants. This current uptick will be tied to that. If it levels off now and decreases then it should be fine. 
 

See how things go over the next week before judging what is likely to happen long term. 

Has there been anymore major outbreaks related to restaraunts? I know there were a few early on but I hadn't heard of many since? 

And I agree, it's important to track it over the week before worrying too much on a single days figures 

2 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Both these countries, along with denmark, Cyprus and Iceland use airport testing as their strategy. They are all managing to keep rates lower than countries who do not use airport testing (UK, France, spain).

Im calling there will be a U turn on this in the next few weeks if there is a big spike 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Eat out to help out has got a lot of people out in bars and restaurants. This current uptick will be tied to that. If it levels off now and decreases then it should be fine. 
 

See how things go over the next week before judging what is likely to happen long term. 

The next thing is schools back, Unis back, and more people going back to the office, using public transport etc.

Anyway, way too early to be panicing...save that to November when the shit really will hit the fan

[Ozanne]

This could be an important point to remember when people talk about low deaths at the moment.

 

 

[squirrelarmy]

Just now, Chapple12345 said:

Has there been anymore major outbreaks related to restaraunts? I know there were a few early on but I hadn't heard of many since? 

It’s not been on the news but a lot of bars in Leeds on one street had a significant outbreak. The bars are owned by the same company and one of the staff members was confirmed to have the virus. That member of staff obviously came into contact with a lot of the other staff and many customers. Those bars are staying closed in the short term. 

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Yes deaths have gone down but hospitalisations are actually on the rise again. Testing numbers are no longer increasing in fact it is actually difficult to get an appointment at a drive in testing centre and people are being sent hundreds of miles, the positivity rate is increasing whether we like it or not, stop trying to make excuses to justify it.

I don’t particularly think an extra 3000 people who will suffer long term health problems, relapse and potentially chronic conditions with some of them hospitalised is particularly “acceptable”. 

Its not just about the numbers today, it’s about the trend the numbers are taking. An exponential rise in cases leads to an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. There is a 3-4 week lag on increased hospitalisations and deaths from when cases start rising, the numbers aren’t all going to align straight away from when people catch the virus.

Dont call me “hysterical”, your complacent nature is actually the “hysterical” thing going on here.

It's unfair to call you hysterical, and not helpful in the slightest. Your worries and concerns are completely valid and are clearly in the extreme; so to describe them as hysterical doesn't help at all. You are doing fine mate!

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Yes deaths have gone down but hospitalisations are actually on the rise again. Testing numbers are no longer increasing in fact it is actually difficult to get an appointment at a drive in testing centre and people are being sent hundreds of miles, the positivity rate is increasing whether we like it or not, stop trying to make excuses to justify it.

I don’t particularly think an extra 3000 people who will suffer long term health problems, relapse and potentially chronic conditions with some of them hospitalised is particularly “acceptable”. 

Its not just about the numbers today, it’s about the trend the numbers are taking. An exponential rise in cases leads to an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. There is a 3-4 week lag on increased hospitalisations and deaths from when cases start rising, the numbers aren’t all going to align straight away from when people catch the virus.

Dont call me “hysterical”, your complacent nature is actually the “hysterical” thing going on here.

Not all 3000 people will have long term health problems. Thats... a little ott

 

Its a concerning rise and we need to find out why there's such a rise. Is it a localised outbreak or massive community increase?

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

This could be an important point to remember when people talk about low deaths at the moment.

 

 

as I just did .... low deaths is surely important combined with low levels of hospitalisations ..... the people who have the virus at home would be less  likely to develop the long term complications I would think 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Not all 3000 people will have long term health problems. Thats... a little ott

 

Its a concerning rise and we need to find out why there's such a rise. Is it a localised outbreak or massive community increase?

This is a stretch but the long covid FB group has 20k members, so if you took them as having long term effects 20k of 347,152 confirmed cases is about 5% of cases. Which doesn't seem to OTT as a percentage of cases to have long term effects.

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

as I just did .... low deaths is surely important combined with low levels of hospitalisations ..... the people who have the virus at home would be less  likely to develop the long term complications I would think 

Not necessarily, it might not have hospitalised people but still could lead to long term effects.

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

as I just did .... low deaths is surely important combined with low levels of hospitalisations ..... the people who have the virus at home would be less  likely to develop the long term complications I would think 

My aunt had the virus in April and didn’t have to go to hospital, she stayed at home.

Its now September she’s still having severe relapses and continual fatigue. She’s not got any underlying health problems.

Im just trying to emphasise the damage this virus really can do to people and their way of living. I personally don’t think any increase in cases is acceptable even if deaths remain low, the health problems associated from this virus could inhibit people’s ability to fight future viruses.

[Waterdeep]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Not all 3000 people will have long term health problems. Thats... a little ott

It's a new virus so there's no way anyone can be sure of that yet.

[Baggins7]

Although the rise in cases isn’t good, does anyone have the detailed data on whether this is likely to be increased testing? I know today’s data was shown but I’ve not got previous days to compare to. Also deaths remain low, this could be suggesting that there is just more testing leading to more reported cases, unless treatment has gotten a lot more effective

[gizmoman]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

Yes deaths have gone down but hospitalisations are actually on the rise again. Testing numbers are no longer increasing in fact it is actually difficult to get an appointment at a drive in testing centre and people are being sent hundreds of miles, the positivity rate is increasing whether we like it or not, stop trying to make excuses to justify it.

I don’t particularly think an extra 3000 people who will suffer long term health problems, relapse and potentially chronic conditions with some of them hospitalised is particularly “acceptable”. 

Its not just about the numbers today, it’s about the trend the numbers are taking. An exponential rise in cases leads to an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. There is a 3-4 week lag on increased hospitalisations and deaths from when cases start rising, the numbers aren’t all going to align straight away from when people catch the virus.

Dont call me “hysterical”, your complacent nature is actually the “hysterical” thing going on here.

 

Just now, Ozanne said:

U.K. figures for 6th September. 

"There is a 3-4 week lag on increased hospitalisations and deaths from when cases start rising, the numbers aren’t all going to align straight away from when people catch the virus."

You are correct, a true increase in cases will result in more people in hospital a few weeks later. So I say again, look at the graphs, the case rate started to go up early July, where is the resulting increase in the hospitalisation rate from early August? We are now in September with no increase.

"I don’t particularly think an extra 3000 people who will suffer long term health problems, relapse and potentially chronic conditions with some of them hospitalised is particularly “acceptable”."  Where is the evidence that everyone who gets a positive test will suffer long term? or even at all?  In any event those people have been identified by increased testing, it doesn't mean for sure there is now more disease about.

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, Baggins7 said:

Although the rise in cases isn’t good, does anyone have the detailed data on whether this is likely to be increased testing? I know today’s data was shown but I’ve not got previous days to compare to. Also deaths remain low, this could be suggesting that there is just more testing leading to more reported cases, unless treatment has gotten a lot more effective

Here you go, it's the most recent testing capacity carried out.

Edited September 6, 2020 by Ozanne

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

My aunt had the virus in April and didn’t have to go to hospital, she stayed at home.

Its now September she’s still having severe relapses and continual fatigue. She’s not got any underlying health problems.

Im just trying to emphasise the damage this virus really can do to people and their way of living. I personally don’t think any increase in cases is acceptable even if deaths remain low, the health problems associated from this virus could inhibit people’s ability to fight future viruses.

thats partly the reason I said less ... knowing of your aunt for one .... I dont think people are neccesarily down playing it  just having a slightly different take on the state of where we are at the moment and as humans we respond differently to things .... talking longer term we really cant control what may or may not happen with future viruses .... the healthcare has improved massively and the potential for a vaccine has come a long way in such a short time ... along with the availability of testing .... the early days we were testing at 5000 or was it 10,000 and we were only testing hospitalisations .... we are far exceeding that now so will pick up more cases , hopefully they will find something that will help your aunt with the fatigue soon 

[Waterdeep]

2 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Where is the evidence that everyone who gets a positive test will suffer long term?

How do we get evidence of long term effects now? It hasn't been around long enough.

[ace56blaa]

Testing figures today will not be revealed till thursday and would have to be 300,000 test carried out to account for the rise in cases