When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

Equally when does Covid become more important than other issues, such as mental health or treatments for other diseases. Whilst lockdown is necessary now it shouldn’t be the only tactic used. 

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Equally when does Covid become more important than other issues, such as mental health or treatments for other diseases. Whilst lockdown is necessary now it shouldn’t be the only tactic used. 

But then again, how do you think everyones mental health is going to be if there are mass, mass deaths and you run a high risk of catching the disease every time you go out? At this point there are no good solutions, which is why I think we need to play for time. (gives you chance to build up resources for NHS, PPE, testing capacity and procedures etc. I'm not hopeful for a vaccine any time soon (if at all), what I think we need to hope for is more effective treatment which ideally negates the need for hospital admission at all, or at the very least gives a good recovery rate for people who are hospitalised.

[Crazyfool01]

The app looks like a positive move presuming we need low numbers of cases to start with for it to work ? ... much as im not keen on Bo jo I think we need someone leading this .... seems like things have been on hold in terms of decisions the last few weeks 

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, tigger123 said:

Waiting for a vaccine when we don’t know when it will come is unsustainable and until we have a vaccine or effective treatment, there will inevitably be a rise in cases when lockdown measures are lifted. If we delay too much, then we risk the possible, some would say probable, second peak hitting in the winter when the NHS is already at capacity, before you even  begin to factor in the impact of Covid. Given the economy won’t survive an indefinite lockdown, they will have to start lifting it soon. If a second peak does happen, which of course we hope it doesn’t, in terms of NHS capacity, it is better it happens in the summer than in the winter. Tough decisions ahead for the government, thank god it’s not us having to make them!

Will there really be the usual flu numbers in winter if we're socially distancing and on partial lockdown though? 

Also I'm really no sure that we have as much control over the economy as we think- what if we lift the lockdown but everyone is too scared to return their usual ways? Who's honestly risking going to the pub? to concerts? On holidays? We're a service economy- how do many businesses and services survive even after lockdown is lifted if people just don't want to use them?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 hours ago, Matt42 said:

The problem with the “hard choices” argument, and the “herd immunity” approach is this...

What if it’s someone from your family which falls victim to it? I find that those championing herd immunity have this “well herd immunity is fine as long as it’s not my family or myself” approach, which is inherently flawed in itself.

Matt, you’re missing the point again about all of this. For one there is no good vs evil, or herd immunity approach, herd immunity is the only end to this, that could either be through a vaccine or it dying out naturally. Now clearly the virus cannot be left completely unchecked, as we know that would overwhelm our health service. On the flip side a full on indefinite lockdown would be as absurd and unmanageable. It would send the world back to the Stone Age, it’s simply not viable. So there isn’t an argument of one vs the other, only possibly in your head. The solution is somewhere in the middle. An easing of lockdown with some normality returning, with social distancing measures in place to slow the spread of the virus. There really is no other option.

You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that it’s is possible, or even a choice, to keep us in lockdown indefinitely to prevent any further loss of life and for this to be the sole reason to sustain lockdown. That will never happen, it doesn’t happen now for any of the things that kill us on a daily basis. We don’t shut roads to avoid road traffic deaths, We don’t go into a lockdown in winter to avoid any flu deaths. You may not like it or agree with, but the sooner you accept it the easier it’s going to be.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

Will there really be the usual flu numbers in winter if we're socially distancing and on partial lockdown though? 

Also I'm really no sure that we have as much control over the economy as we think- what if we lift the lockdown but everyone is too scared to return their usual ways? Who's honestly risking going to the pub? to concerts? On holidays? We're a service economy- how do many businesses and services survive even after lockdown is lifted if people just don't want to use them?

So are you saying let’s destroy them for absolute certain instead then? 

[steviewevie]

Of course the lockdown will end, the question is when?

[Ryan1984]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Of course the lockdown will end, the question is when?

This is the question we all want the answer to. With Boris back, maybe we will get one?

My completely uneducated guess is we will see an extension to the current restrictions on 7 May or whenever it is (maybe with another address to the nation) and then hopefully by the time the next update comes around in early/mid-June we can at least go and see family.

But who knows.

*Boris coming back and Priti saying something stupid within hours of us going above 20,000 reported deaths has a bit of ‘dead cat theory’ about it. Is Cummings back as well now?

[Crazyfool01]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Of course the lockdown will end, the question is when?

They possibly saved the lockdown restriction relaxation announcement for our hero Boris to be doing on his first day back ... that would make them some lovely headlines 

[zero000]

14 hours ago, Matt42 said:

If this is true then lockdown will probably be in place until there is a vaccine. However impossible that sounds.

 

Looking at the news today it looks like they are suggesting that the lockdown will have to persist until the rate of infection has significantly decreased and there are the resources in place for mass scale testing and aggressive contact tracing. 

[tigger123]

2 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

Will there really be the usual flu numbers in winter if we're socially distancing and on partial lockdown though? 

Also I'm really no sure that we have as much control over the economy as we think- what if we lift the lockdown but everyone is too scared to return their usual ways? Who's honestly risking going to the pub? to concerts? On holidays? We're a service economy- how do many businesses and services survive even after lockdown is lifted if people just don't want to use them?

No matter how many people go back to pubs etc, what we do know is that we can’t have the economy contracting by 35% every quarter, as it has done this quarter. This will lead to vast unemployment and far more deaths in the long run. People need jobs to pay tax in order to fund the NHS and if we’re going to have to maintain extra capacity for covid on top of what the NHS was already facing, that’s going to cost vast sums of money. Even if pubs etc reopen not at full capacity (which I agree will definitely happen as some will inevitably stay away), you can’t just kick the can down the road forever. The sooner the pubs open, the sooner they will eventually be back at full capacity, as people learn to live alongside coronavirus, until we get a vaccine/effective treatment. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

No matter how many people go back to pubs etc, what we do know is that we can’t have the economy contracting by 35% every quarter, as it has done this quarter. This will lead to vast unemployment and far more deaths in the long run. People need jobs to pay tax in order to fund the NHS and if we’re going to have to maintain extra capacity for covid on top of what the NHS was already facing, that’s going to cost vast sums of money. Even if pubs etc reopen not at full capacity (which I agree will definitely happen as some will inevitably stay away), you can’t just kick the can down the road forever. The sooner the pubs open, the sooner they will eventually be back at full capacity, as people learn to live alongside coronavirus, until we get a vaccine/effective treatment. 

Yes, exactly this. All the government measures, the grants the furloughing, should enable most pubs/restaurants etc and their staff to scrape by for the three months they’re in place for. Some probably won’t survive but hopefully most will. At the end of it no doubt numbers will be down, but they should just be enough for them to scrape by until people recalibrate to the situation and things return to normal. Saying well people won’t want to go to them so let’s carry on as we are and completely destroy them is a bizarre view if you ask me.

And recalibrate people will. This may well become endemic, in which case it just becomes another very small risk to live alongside, along with all the existing risks we currently live with day in day out.

[Homer]

Great news to hear that the prime minister will be able to return to not attending the meetings

[Homer]

I declined the vaccines once 

They were stinking up the other stage so I went to the pyramid instead 👍

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Looking at the news today it looks like they are suggesting that the lockdown will have to persist until the rate of infection has significantly decreased and there are the resources in place for mass scale testing and aggressive contact tracing. 

Pretty much. However, the raw case numbers don’t tell the entire story in terms of what it means for lockdown. New case numbers in the ‘00s looks bad for easing restrictions, but it depends on whether those cases have an unknown origin, are community transmission, or are from known contacts. If there is low community transmission and most cases are from known contacts, then it’s containable using contact tracing (assuming those contacted then restrict their movements for 2 weeks and self isolate for at least a week if they develop symptoms). I’ve had 2 close contacts, received a call, was on restricted movement voluntarily anyway, but if I had not been, I would have. Unfortunately at the moment, the quality of the data being released in the UK is inadequate to interpret as far as easing restrictions goes (this might be policy). A bit more detail and you can make better predictions (in Ireland the modelling group give a weekly update with better information on where the cases are, maps showing the case clusters nationally, and from the start they released how many cases were due to confirmed contacts, how many were community transmission and how many were currently unknown). Basically, once you get back to a situation where you know where most cases are coming from, you can move towards easing restrictions. Needs aggressive testing and contact tracing, and when case numbers that you can’t account for reach a trigger level, you can tighten restrictions again. The key will be keeping cases below the trigger level. That’s influenced by ICU capacity and by how well you identify new cases. 

[zahidf]

 

 

Depressing reading.

[Ozanne]

2 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

But then again, how do you think everyones mental health is going to be if there are mass, mass deaths and you run a high risk of catching the disease every time you go out? At this point there are no good solutions, which is why I think we need to play for time. (gives you chance to build up resources for NHS, PPE, testing capacity and procedures etc. I'm not hopeful for a vaccine any time soon (if at all), what I think we need to hope for is more effective treatment which ideally negates the need for hospital admission at all, or at the very least gives a good recovery rate for people who are hospitalised.

We kind of have that at the moment, mass death and a risk of catching it when you go out. Speaking from my experience my mental health has taken a knock since being in lockdown, I’m doing things/building in existing tool to combat it but my mental health is definitely being effected NOW. Equally people didn’t seem to be too bothered a few weeks ago sitting in pubs on the evening they got closed down.

 

If we have to live alongside CV for the next year then shouldn’t we be makI got a start on some semblance of normal living to try to get used to it sooner rather than later? Personally for me I can’t live for much longer avoiding people in the streets for fear of infection or being worried if someone comes close to me in the supermarket. So I’m forcing myself to combat that as if I don’t start to do it now, it’ll be harder in the long run.  

[steviewevie]

Sunak vs Hancock.

Lots of people are going to die, and the economy is screwed.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

We kind of have that at the moment, mass death and a risk of catching it when you go out. Speaking from my experience my mental health has taken a knock since being in lockdown, I’m doing things/building in existing tool to combat it but my mental health is definitely being effected NOW. Equally people didn’t seem to be too bothered a few weeks ago sitting in pubs on the evening they got closed down.

 

If we have to live alongside CV for the next year then shouldn’t we be makI got a start on some semblance of normal living to try to get used to it sooner rather than later? Personally for me I can’t live for much longer avoiding people in the streets for fear of infection or being worried if someone comes close to me in the supermarket. So I’m forcing myself to combat that as if I don’t start to do it now, it’ll be harder in the long run.  

it's finding a balance, which I'm sure they are trying to do. Just have to hope they get it as right as possible. If they lift the restrictions too early and we suddenly get a whole load of cases that look like will overwhelm health services, then we'll be back into lockdown. Is the economy more resilient to one longer lockdown, or multiple lockdowns going on and on. Probably the former.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

it's finding a balance, which I'm sure they are trying to do. Just have to hope they get it as right as possible. If they lift the restrictions too early and we suddenly get a whole load of cases that look like will overwhelm health services, then we'll be back into lockdown. Is the economy more resilient to one longer lockdown, or multiple lockdowns going on and on. Probably the former.

the economy I would say would be the former ..... we would also want to be as open as possible at Christmas as for retail particularly that has quite a large proportional effect in the year .... in terms of humanity short periods of lockdown will be much easier to cope with ....its that balance thats so tough 

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

it's finding a balance, which I'm sure they are trying to do. Just have to hope they get it as right as possible. If they lift the restrictions too early and we suddenly get a whole load of cases that look like will overwhelm health services, then we'll be back into lockdown. Is the economy more resilient to one longer lockdown, or multiple lockdowns going on and on. Probably the former.

Oh yeah I agree, I’m not saying end the lockdown now. Just that lockdowns as a long term tool aren’t viable. I also felt the need to talk about how I’m feeling about it, which people probably don’t wanna hear! 😂

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Oh yeah I agree, I’m not saying end the lockdown now. Just that lockdowns as a long term tool aren’t viable. I also felt the need to talk about how I’m feeling about it, which people probably don’t wanna hear! 😂

talk away OZ .... if people want to hear it or not ... 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

14 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We kind of have that at the moment, mass death and a risk of catching it when you go out. Speaking from my experience my mental health has taken a knock since being in lockdown, I’m doing things/building in existing tool to combat it but my mental health is definitely being effected NOW. Equally people didn’t seem to be too bothered a few weeks ago sitting in pubs on the evening they got closed down.

 

If we have to live alongside CV for the next year then shouldn’t we be makI got a start on some semblance of normal living to try to get used to it sooner rather than later? Personally for me I can’t live for much longer avoiding people in the streets for fear of infection or being worried if someone comes close to me in the supermarket. So I’m forcing myself to combat that as if I don’t start to do it now, it’ll be harder in the long run.  

I think that’s a good point you make about people being happy to sit in pubs before lockdown. I think it’s important to remember that going into lockdown is a pretty drastic step, so drastic that while it’s being done we may as well chuck the kitchen sink at it which is essentially what we’re doing. We’re avoiding people in the street, standing 2 metres apart etc etc. mostly because that’s what we’re being told to do, and we may as well all do it to give it the very best shot of slowing the spread as much as possible. But what we’re doing now isn’t necessarily everyone’s personal perception and reaction to the risk, we’re just doing what we’re told to because it makes sense to. I might have had the virus already, but I’m personally not scared of it and when pubs etc reopen I’ll go straight back to then, so what’s happening now is by no means a representation of how things will be as and when lockdown measures are eased. I think we’ll largely do what we’re told, but at the same time most peoples perception of the risk to them personally and how worried about it they are isn’t necessarily matched by the current measures.

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Oh yeah I agree, I’m not saying end the lockdown now. Just that lockdowns as a long term tool aren’t viable. I also felt the need to talk about how I’m feeling about it, which people probably don’t wanna hear! 😂

Yeah, it's tough. I'm sure loads of people going through some very hard times with this. I'm fortunate in that it is very easy for me to work from home, I don't live alone, and don't have any money or health issues...apart from the usual stress from my stupid bloody job. I think they will relax some of the social restrictions in a month or so.

[Ozanne]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Yeah, it's tough. I'm sure loads of people going through some very hard times with this. I'm fortunate in that it is very easy for me to work from home, I don't live alone, and don't have any money or health issues...apart from the usual stress from my stupid bloody job. I think they will relax some of the social restrictions in a month or so.

I’m very fortunate too, I’m still working from home, have my own place and can separate away from people. I try to never forget that but it can be tougher at times to do that.

 

I think they relax some at the end of these 3 weeks, too much noise I’d bring made about restrictions loosening for that not to be a possibility.