When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

Just now, DeanoL said:

But an unvaccinated person with a negative test won't?

If a 30% reduction in risk is all we're after (ie. how much the vaccines stop transmission) it's certainly a lot easier as we can use the fast tests that only identify 30% of the cases too!

Talking of tests I got myself 2 boxes of the lateral flow ones at the weekend.

No questions as to if I had children etc just sent through and collected them.

Worth doing for anyone who maybe worried as to meeting up with friends / family going forwards.

[Mellotr0n]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Talking of tests I got myself 2 boxes of the lateral flow ones at the weekend.

No questions as to if I had children etc just sent through and collected them.

Worth doing for anyone who maybe worried as to meeting up with friends / family going forwards.

Thanks for the heads up - just ordered, based on my Son being in Nursery and neither myself or my Wife being of the age to get jabbed yet. Useful.

[eFestivals]

3 hours ago, jparx said:

That’s the rule of sicks - easily confused.

Hope you’re getting on alright mate!

Ok,but not getngparoled soon enough for my liking.

Edited March 29, 2021 by eFestivals

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 hours ago, DeanoL said:

But an unvaccinated person with a negative test won't?

If a 30% reduction in risk is all we're after (ie. how much the vaccines stop transmission) it's certainly a lot easier as we can use the fast tests that only identify 30% of the cases too!

Where on earth are you getting these numbers from? In one paragraph you’ve managed to underestimate how good the vaccines are AND how good the tests are.

 

FWIW, I’m fine with giving EVERYONE an LFT to attend an event whether they’re vaccinated or not if it would make people in your situation have more confidence about attending. But this sort of thing is what I call pandemic theatre, so it might only be good for improving confidence levels rather than actually affecting the transmission. 

[eFestivals]

I love how mr I shake hands with covifd patients is telling us all to be careful.

Edited March 29, 2021 by eFestivals

[zahidf]

19 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Where on earth are you getting these numbers from? In one paragraph you’ve managed to underestimate how good the vaccines are AND how good the tests are.

 

FWIW, I’m fine with giving EVERYONE an LFT to attend an event whether they’re vaccinated or not if it would make people in your situation have more confidence about attending. But this sort of thing is what I call pandemic theatre, so it might only be good for improving confidence levels rather than actually affecting the transmission. 

I don't really get the 30% less chance either. Someone with the vaccine shot will be a lot less likely to catch covid, and even if they did, less likely for it to become symptomatic, and for it to be dangerous enough to spread 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I don't really get the 30% less chance either. Someone with the vaccine shot will be a lot less likely to catch covid, and even if they did, less likely for it to become symptomatic, and for it to be dangerous enough to spread 

AZ cuts transmission by 2/3 does it not? And Pfizer almost completely removes transmission?

 

Only 1/300 people have the virus now in the UK and vaccinated people are AT LEAST 2/3 less likely to infect you than an unvaccinated person. Tbh @DeanoL I completely fail to understand why you’d still feel unsafe in spite of that? 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

AZ cuts transmission by 2/3 does it not? And Pfizer almost completely removes transmission?

 

Only 1/300 people have the virus now in the UK and vaccinated people are AT LEAST 2/3 less likely to infect you than an unvaccinated person. Tbh @DeanoL I completely fail to understand why you’d still feel unsafe in spite of that? 

The number is from 30%-70% cuts in transmission.

Even at 70% that's nowhere near high enough to make it "safe" if you're arguing it wasn't "safe" before.

The argument that the people not vaccinated are going to be low risk people who won't get ill anyway is legit, but then you have to question why we need anything.

[JoeyT]

 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

 

Good stuff. Last of the surplus supply I'd imagine but glad it's going out with a bang before we concentrate on more second doses.

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The number is from 30%-70% cuts in transmission.

Even at 70% that's nowhere near high enough to make it "safe" if you're arguing it wasn't "safe" before.

The argument that the people not vaccinated are going to be low risk people who won't get ill anyway is legit, but then you have to question why we need anything.

To be honest post first vaccination for say over 30s that's exactly what I'm questioning. I'm mid 30s and would go to a gig without one this summer if my number came up after 

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The number is from 30%-70% cuts in transmission.

Even at 70% that's nowhere near high enough to make it "safe" if you're arguing it wasn't "safe" before.

The argument that the people not vaccinated are going to be low risk people who won't get ill anyway is legit, but then you have to question why we need anything.

Depends how you define “safe”.

 

My view is that those at high risk have been vaccinated now so a much larger reopening would be “safe”. What I mean by that is that whilst you’d get the odd younger person getting seriously ill and the occasional vaccinated person becoming seriously ill, those would be isolated unlucky incidents rather than something that would happen on a wider scale.

 

However if you want to be kept safe from catching the virus altogether, that’s a whole other kettle of fish. However the transmission levels are coming down so much (due to 3 months of lockdown and the fact that half the population has taken a vaccine which substantially reduces the odds of you transmission the virus) that even catching a minor case is far less likely than it would have been a number of weeks ago. So I find it quite odd that you are saying it’s still to soon to even feel comfortable meeting people outside. 

 

 

[DeanoL]

8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

To be honest post first vaccination for say over 30s that's exactly what I'm questioning. I'm mid 30s and would go to a gig without one this summer if my number came up after 

And I won't be going to gigs until I'm vaccinated in a few months.

What I'm questioning is if there are actually people that exist in between us, that would go to a gig but only if everyone was either vaccinated or had a negative test. I'm not sure they exist in any number.

I might chance it if it was just "everyone has to have a negative test" but I don't really take any comfort from "only 3 in 10 of the vaccinated folk will be able to pass it on to you". That doesn't seem compelling enough to move anyone from "I'll wait for my vaccine" to "show me the mosh pit".

 

[fraybentos1]

13 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Good stuff. Last of the surplus supply I'd imagine but glad it's going out with a bang before we concentrate on more second doses.

Could be talking absolute nonsense but I feel like the 'supply issues' won't be as bad as made out. At the very least they'll have enough to do the second doses they need to do so it isn't a disaster anyway but I think they'll still be doing plenty first doses.

It's nearly April and 4 people I know from work (50+) all have vaccine appointments in for April and they have said they'll get all over 50s done by mid april so still has to be plenty first doses to come. Late April into May is when the second doses will really have to ramp up based on the 12 weeks prior to it.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

And I won't be going to gigs until I'm vaccinated in a few months.

What I'm questioning is if there are actually people that exist in between us, that would go to a gig but only if everyone was either vaccinated or had a negative test. I'm not sure they exist in any number.

I might chance it if it was just "everyone has to have a negative test" but I don't really take any comfort from "only 3 in 10 of the vaccinated folk will be able to pass it on to you". That doesn't seem compelling enough to move anyone from "I'll wait for my vaccine" to "show me the mosh pit".

 

I'm guessing there must be people willing to go to a concert with testing/vaccine passport requirement. Its popular with pollsters and people have said to You guv they'd be likely to go to events with those requirements.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

Could be talking absolute nonsense but I feel like the 'supply issues' won't be as bad as made out. At the very least they'll have enough to do the second doses they need to do so it isn't a disaster anyway but I think they'll still be doing plenty first doses.

It's nearly April and 4 people I know from work (50+) all have vaccine appointments in for April and they have said they'll get all over 50s done by mid april so still has to be plenty first doses to come. Late April into May is when the second doses will really have to ramp up based on the 12 weeks prior to it.

It's based on the Govt ministers calling April second dose April though. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

And I won't be going to gigs until I'm vaccinated in a few months.

What I'm questioning is if there are actually people that exist in between us, that would go to a gig but only if everyone was either vaccinated or had a negative test. I'm not sure they exist in any number.

I might chance it if it was just "everyone has to have a negative test" but I don't really take any comfort from "only 3 in 10 of the vaccinated folk will be able to pass it on to you". That doesn't seem compelling enough to move anyone from "I'll wait for my vaccine" to "show me the mosh pit".

 

Plenty of people would go to a gig regardless of any vaccine/test passport or not. The passports are there to help reduce transmission in itself, not just to increase confidence (although if they do increase confidence then that’s a nice Brucie bonus)

[steviewevie]

Novavax to be the new Astra Zeneca.

[Guest]

 

[efcfanwirral]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Novavax to be the new Astra Zeneca.

struggling to find out what you mean on my news (twitter) feed - in a good way like doing vaccines at cost or a bad way where they're pissing off multiple countries?

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

struggling to find out what you mean on my news (twitter) feed - in a good way like doing vaccines at cost or a bad way where they're pissing off multiple countries?

Shortage of raw materials going to hinder supplies in EU...but doesn't appear to be a problem for UK production (as far as we know). 

 

[sedra]

28 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Could be talking absolute nonsense but I feel like the 'supply issues' won't be as bad as made out. At the very least they'll have enough to do the second doses they need to do so it isn't a disaster anyway but I think they'll still be doing plenty first doses.

It's nearly April and 4 people I know from work (50+) all have vaccine appointments in for April and they have said they'll get all over 50s done by mid april so still has to be plenty first doses to come. Late April into May is when the second doses will really have to ramp up based on the 12 weeks prior to it.

Also depends where you are - I am 60 and had my AZ jab done 2 weeks ago via NHS central booking , my niece who is 41 with no ULHC’s just got offered one this week by her Gp surgery - we both live in same town. 

[northernringo]

In NI, we opened our mass vaccination centre today.

Looks like 45-49 year olds will be starting pretty soon

[zahidf]

 

 

 

[phimill]

Do we think single number deaths today?