When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

 

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Pippa Crerar is usually very good but the “vaccine resistant” meme needs to die. 

To be fair, she is just quoting what the Bonking Boffin is saying in the interview

[zahidf]

 

[steviewevie]

46 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Roll on the 29th March when ridiculous things like this won't happen... and there are people who lap up this like it's some kind of moral victory for society! Quite the opposite.

 

lock her up

[eFestivals]

18 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Slightly off topic, but what phone are you using? I find the iPhone autocorrect excellent for fixing poor typing. I struggle with poor coordination and always hitting the wrong key. My phones built in spell check tends to keep me sounding reasonably literal. I think you can also increase the keyboard size too so you have bigger buttons to aim your thumbs at. 

Its a sony XO. I tendto ignore the auto suggestions. And my thumb often hits two characters at the same time. 

[DeanoL]

The AZ situation sounds to me like (informed speculation):

There are 4 factories, 2 in the UK, 2 in the EU. Technically they are all under the supply contract for both the EU and UK agreements. The UK agreement says doses can't leave the country unless they're excess in terms of the numbers agreed. The EU agreement does not have such a clause, but the understanding is that the EU factories should be used for EU doses first.

The reason the EU agreement doesn't have that clause is that they were dragging their heels on actually approving it at the start of the year, and it would be unethical to let the vaccines pile up somewhere unused while there was someone willing to use them. So they were shipped to the UK. After all, if the EU approve later, they can always ship back from the UK factories- in theory, shipping those doses over should get them ahead of their UK target, after all, giving them room to do so.

But AZ have chronically underdelivered across the board, with the factories not getting the yields they were expecting. They've propped up UK supply very well with doses from the EU but they've not got ahead of the agreement to the point they could start to send any back to the EU once it was approved.

Then there's the 4th factory in the EU, which still hasn't been approved. Again, I don't think for a second doses are being stockpiled there. They are being sent to the UK. As they should be, ethically.

I have a feeling that factory will be approved for use in the EU imminently, and when that happens, they can no longer justify sending those doses to the UK. So as of next month, for the first time the UK will be fully dependent on the UK factories for its doses. And they're not going to be enough.

Is this all the EU's fault? I'm not so sure. While it took a while for the EEA to approve the AZ vaccine, it took ages for them to actually submit it for approval. And the Halix factory not being approved seems to be a similar case of the approval papers not being submitted in a timely fashion. 

I would speculate that AZ have dragged their heels on this on purpose, knowing that yields are well down on what they expected across the board, and figuring it's better for them to have one big success story (the UK) and one disappointed customer (the EU) than disappoint everyone. So they've done what they can within the contracts to make that happen.

Where the EU have fallen down is failing to chase on these things. When you need the product you can't just wait for the supplier to submit the approvals - you have to hound them into actually doing it. 

Edited March 19, 2021 by DeanoL

[DeanoL]

= double post

Edited March 19, 2021 by DeanoL

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The AZ situation sounds to me like (informed speculation):

There are 4 factories, 2 in the UK, 2 in the EU. Technically they are all under the supply contract for both the EU and UK agreements. The UK agreement says doses can't leave the country unless they're excess in terms of the numbers agreed. The EU agreement does not have such a clause, but the understanding is that the EU factories should be used for EU doses first.

The reason the EU agreement doesn't have that clause is that they were dragging their heels on actually approving it at the start of the year, and it would be unethical to let the vaccines pile up somewhere unused while there was someone willing to use them. So they were shipped to the UK. After all, if the EU approve later, they can always ship back from the UK factories- in theory, shipping those doses over should get them ahead of their UK target, after all, giving them room to do so.

But AZ have chronically underdelivered across the board, with the factories not getting the yields they were expecting. They've propped up UK supply very well with doses from the EU but they've not got ahead of the agreement to the point they could start to send any back to the EU once it was approved.

Then there's the 4th factory in the EU, which still hasn't been approved. Again, I don't think for a second doses are being stockpiled there. They are being sent to the UK. As they should be, ethically.

I have a feeling that factory will be approved for use in the EU imminently, and when that happens, they can no longer justify sending those doses to the UK. So as of next month, for the first time the UK will be fully dependent on the UK factories for its doses. And they're not going to be enough.

Is this all the EU's fault? I'm not so sure. While it took a while for the EEA to approve the AZ vaccine, it took ages for them to actually submit it for approval. And the Halix factory not being approved seems to be a similar case of the approval papers not being submitted in a timely fashion. 

I would speculate that AZ have dragged their heels on this on purpose, knowing that yields are well down on what they expected across the board, and figuring it's better for them to have one big success story (the UK) and one disappointed customer (the EU) than disappoint everyone. So they've done what they can within the contracts to make that happen.

Where the EU have fallen down is failing to chase on these things. When you need the product you can't just wait for the supplier to submit the approvals - you have to hound them into actually doing it. 

There's no AZ being shipped from EU to the UK. 

[DeanoL]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

There's no AZ being shipped from EU to the UK. 

Do we know that for a fact?

I know for sure the initial doses in December came from the EU: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUKKBN28I1NH

That was before they had approved it though. I had also assumed those deliveries stopped once the EEA approved the vaccine, but the story about the unapproved Halix factory now makes me question if that's the case.

Are those doses just sitting there waiting for the EU to approve them? Would that not have come up by now, if it was the case? Would the EU not being saying they're getting ready for a massive spike in vaccine numbers as 3 months worth of stockpiled doses are due as soon as the factory is approved.

(And speaking of factory approval, can you even retroactively approve a factory like that at all? Like, I'm the EEA, I go down to Halix, do all my safety checks and approve the factory for production... I haven't approved the past three months of production - I have no idea what the factory situation was back then, or what conditions those doses were produced in)

[incident]

20 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

There are 4 factories, 2 in the UK, 2 in the EU. Technically they are all under the supply contract for both the EU and UK agreements. The UK agreement says doses can't leave the country unless they're excess in terms of the numbers agreed. The EU agreement does not have such a clause, but the understanding is that the EU factories should be used for EU doses first.

The reason the EU agreement doesn't have that clause is that they were dragging their heels on actually approving it at the start of the year, and it would be unethical to let the vaccines pile up somewhere unused while there was someone willing to use them. So they were shipped to the UK. After all, if the EU approve later, they can always ship back from the UK factories- in theory, shipping those doses over should get them ahead of their UK target, after all, giving them room to do so.

As I keep pointing out - it's not about the UK saying they can't leave the country as such, it's that the contracts are structured in such a way that AZ don't actually have control of the doses or the facilities making them at this point. So the Government don't need to block anything even if they wanted to. Though ultimately the end result is pretty much the same so it's arguably a technicality but quite an important one in legal terms.

The reason the EU don't have that same level of certainty isn't anything to do with when the contracts were agreed - it's that the UK deals go much further in terms of directly procuring and setting up manufacturing facilities on behalf of AZ hence the contracts being structured in the way they are. Instead the EU agreement is much more along the lines of "we buy, you supply". They did include subsidies for manufacturing support, but without anywhere near the same level of involvement.

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Then there's the 4th factory in the EU, which still hasn't been approved. Again, I don't think for a second doses are being stockpiled there. They are being sent to the UK. As they should be, ethically.

I have a feeling that factory will be approved for use in the EU imminently, and when that happens, they can no longer justify sending those doses to the UK. So as of next month, for the first time the UK will be fully dependent on the UK factories for its doses. And they're not going to be enough.

Halix definitely are "stockpiling" - they've not sent any doses to the UK since the politicians started kicking up a stink. They're estimating that they'll deliver around 10 million doses to the EU in the week or so after they're approved to supply - which is why it's so baffling that the EU are simultaneously dragging their feet on the approval yet at the same time their leaders are complaining about lack of deliveries (granted, different people within the EU).

[steviewevie]

UK coming out of lockdown restrictions and France in the middle of a 3rd wave, all mostly because of how the two countries have done with the vaccines, is going to really help the tories in May. 

[incident]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Are those doses just sitting there waiting for the EU to approve them? Would that not have come up by now, if it was the case? Would the EU not being saying they're getting ready for a massive spike in vaccine numbers as 3 months worth of stockpiled doses are due as soon as the factory is approved.

It has come up - https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0313/1203746-coronavirus-global/ (amongst others)

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

UK coming out of lockdown restrictions and France in the middle of a 3rd wave, all mostly because of how the two countries have done with the vaccines, is going to really help the tories in May. 

Chances are France and Italy leapfrog our death toll and then we can no longer be criticised for the highest death toll in Europe 

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, incident said:

Halix definitely are "stockpiling" - they've not sent any doses to the UK since the politicians started kicking up a stink. They're estimating that they'll deliver around 10 million doses to the EU in the week or so after they're approved to supply - which is why it's so baffling that the EU are simultaneously dragging their feet on the approval yet at the same time their leaders are complaining about lack of deliveries (granted, different people within the EU).

Yeah I was just reading that article as you posted it. It doesn't quite add up to me. They're aiming for 70 million total between April and June to the EU. So both factories online, that's around 12 million per factory per month.

Then they're saying 10 million the last week of March. You'd expect 3 million of them to be the usual doses from the other EU factory, so that's 7 million doses "stockpiled" - that's definitely close to 3 weeks of stockpiling rather than 3 months. 

Which probably syncs up with when the EU started kicking off about exports? And actually suggests they were right to do so? 

I think most of my theory still works, just we lost the EU supply at the start of March and will feel the effects from April onwards, rather than losing it immediately on 25 March when the factory is given the green light.

(Though I can half imagine the EU deciding they don't want the doses that were made pre-approval)

[incident]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Then they're saying 10 million the last week of March. You'd expect 3 million of them to be the usual doses from the other EU factory, so that's 7 million doses "stockpiled" - that's definitely close to 3 weeks of stockpiling rather than 3 months.

I've read it as 10 million dependent on the approval coming through, ie 10 million from Halix.

Beyond that, stockpiling does have limits and create other issues so it's not safe to make assumptions on timescales - just the amount of (refrigerated) storage required means that it's unlikely that every single potential dose produced has made it into a vial and is therefore ready for immediate delivery.

We saw similar issues when the approvals started to come through in December - millions of doses were "ready to go", but there was still a delay in getting them into vials ready for use.

[parsonjack]

56 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

UK coming out of lockdown restrictions and France in the middle of a 3rd wave, all mostly because of how the two countries have done with the vaccines, is going to really help the tories in May. 

The awful thought of Boris and Mancock eagerly watching the cases and deaths across Europe on the upswing.....

[JoeyT]

What do they smoke over in France?

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

UK coming out of lockdown restrictions and France in the middle of a 3rd wave, all mostly because of how the two countries have done with the vaccines, is going to really help the tories in May. 

It was only a few weeks ago people were complaining that the UK had the strictest lockdown in the world. Funny how things change. 

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

It was only a few weeks ago people were complaining that the UK had the strictest lockdown in the world. Funny how things change. 

Nothing to do with their awful vaccine rollout then non?

[zahidf]

23 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What do they smoke over in France?

 

Oh FFS

 

[Mellotr0n]

41 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What do they smoke over in France?

 

I see they've moved onto page 4 of the How To Completely Fuck Up Public Confidence in Your Vaccine Programme guidebook.

[Fuzzy Afro]

The French will stop at absolutely nothing to smear the perfectly good Oxford/AZ effort.

 

Mark my words, all of these smears “don’t use in over 65’s as it’s quasi-ineffective”, “don’t use at all as it causes blood clots” and now incredibly “ONLY use in over 55’s” are designed entirely to smear the vaccine because their own GSK effort was a dud. 

[Mellotr0n]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The French will stop at absolutely nothing to smear the perfectly good Oxford/AZ effort.

 

Mark my words, all of these smears “don’t use in over 65’s as it’s quasi-ineffective”, “don’t use at all as it causes blood clots” and now incredibly “ONLY use in over 55’s” are designed entirely to smear the vaccine because their own GSK effort was a dud. 

I dunno.

Kill thousands of their own people just for some perceived attempt to flimsily save face?

[Guest]

 

[efcfanwirral]

28 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The French will stop at absolutely nothing to smear the perfectly good Oxford/AZ effort.

 

Mark my words, all of these smears “don’t use in over 65’s as it’s quasi-ineffective”, “don’t use at all as it causes blood clots” and now incredibly “ONLY use in over 55’s” are designed entirely to smear the vaccine because their own GSK effort was a dud. 

"The French" - I assume that wording indicates the same level of distaste and distrust I have when I say "the English"