When will this shit end?

[Guest]

I doubt any major party would want a coalition after the one in 2010-2015, Labour would at most going into a supply and confidence agreement with the SNP offering devo max.

[Fuzzy Afro]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I doubt any major party would want a coalition after the one in 2010-2015, Labour would at most going into a supply and confidence agreement with the SNP offering devo max.

Surely the SNP will only accept a referendum as a minimum? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

31 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I wasn't really expecting to see much progress until three weeks had passed, so seeing this during week two makes me cautiously optimistic. I'm still very nervous that it's all a little two late to stop the hospitals from filling up though. Hopefully we'll squeak it.

It’s pretty clear that Tier 3 (and possibly Tier 2 in London) is enough to slow the growth right down close to R=1 equilibrium. But we need the month long lockdown to stamp the virus right down. I think of this lockdown as more of an extended circuit breaker than the full lockdown that we had in March. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s pretty clear that Tier 3 (and possibly Tier 2 in London) is enough to slow the growth right down close to R=1 equilibrium. But we need the month long lockdown to stamp the virus right down. I think of this lockdown as more of an extended circuit breaker than the full lockdown that we had in March. 

I can't see Manchester being ready for anything other that tier 3 by December, but hopefully we might be able to cope with retail being open in that most important of months.  Whether numbers will be low enough feasibly allow dining is another question, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s pretty clear that Tier 3 (and possibly Tier 2 in London) is enough to slow the growth right down close to R=1 equilibrium. But we need the month long lockdown to stamp the virus right down. I think of this lockdown as more of an extended circuit breaker than the full lockdown that we had in March. 

I'm not sure why London would be different. Tier 2 was most certainly not enough in Manchester - we've been in Tier 2 for months and stayed above R1.

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not sure why London would be different. Tier 2 was most certainly not enough in Manchester - we've been in Tier 2 for months and stayed above R1.

Tier 2 in London is very different from Tier 2 in Manchester. Londoners work from home a lot more than those living anywhere else in the UK. Working from home really kills of tube usage, post work pub/restaurant going etc. It’s no shock that Tier 2 has stabilised the numbers in London whereas other areas still grew in Tier 2. 

[steviewevie]

We really need to leave the animals alone.

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

They have completely closed the border with Denmark now, not just a two week isolation. For British residents who do return from Denmark, their entire household needs to isolate for two weeks (not just those who’d been to Denmark like with the other travel corridors)

 

UK acting fast to prevent this new mink coronavirus getting in. 

We're not though and we have learnt nothing. Because of our libertarianism we are relying solely on luck here - if this is as much of a threat to everything as they're making out, this particular quarantine needs enforcing properly. Put them into hotels but dont leave it to their own decision making - they just wont isolate 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not sure why London would be different. Tier 2 was most certainly not enough in Manchester - we've been in Tier 2 for months and stayed above R1.

I do wonder if tier 3 would only bring infections down to a certain level and not low enough to really be enough? Also what happens when/if infections do get low enough, as tier 2 obviously isn’t enough in some places. 

[Leyrulion]

I think they need to put more incentives in place to get tested if mass testing of towns is rolled out. 

Right now there's no reason for people to, other than good will. 

 

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

think they need to put more incentives in place to get tested if mass testing of towns is rolled out.

Free Glastonbury ticket with every test?

[Leyrulion]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Free Glastonbury ticket with every test?

Woah, let's not get ahead of ourselves! 🤣

[Fuzzy Afro]

16 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I think they need to put more incentives in place to get tested if mass testing of towns is rolled out. 

Right now there's no reason for people to, other than good will. 

 

Actually yeah that’s a good point. If you come forward for a test there’s a risk of having to isolate if it’s positive, so there needs to be a good incentive to take that risk on board. I think 2 weeks fully paid to sit at home should be the deal. 

[stuartbert two hats]

57 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I do wonder if tier 3 would only bring infections down to a certain level and not low enough to really be enough? Also what happens when/if infections do get low enough, as tier 2 obviously isn’t enough in some places. 

I'm not sure what you mean by bring infections down but not enough? When I say tier 2 wasn't enough, I meant not enough to bring R under 1. So, on that basis anything that brings the numbers down is "enough".  What did you mean by enough? BTW, I suspect I agree with you, I'm just not sure what you meant.

But certainly right now, I don't think we can take the risk that tier 3 would bring the numbers down in the NW fast enough to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

[Guest]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not sure what you mean by bring infections down but not enough? When I say tier 2 wasn't enough, I meant not enough to bring R under 1. So, on that basis anything that brings the numbers down is "enough".  What did you mean by enough? BTW, I suspect I agree with you, I'm just not sure what you meant.

But certainly right now, I don't think we can take the risk that tier 3 would bring the numbers down in the NW fast enough to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Sorry I meant prevalence of the virus and cases. Would tier 3 be enough to bring cases down to a suitable enough level for the government to consider moving an area back to tier 2, as that has to be the ultimate aim to bring an area out of the highest tiers. I’m not sure it can do that. I have a feeling those places in tier 3 would see a slowish fall which wouldn’t be enough for hospitals not to be effected. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not sure what you mean by bring infections down but not enough? When I say tier 2 wasn't enough, I meant not enough to bring R under 1. So, on that basis anything that brings the numbers down is "enough".  What did you mean by enough? BTW, I suspect I agree with you, I'm just not sure what you meant.

But certainly right now, I don't think we can take the risk that tier 3 would bring the numbers down in the NW fast enough to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

In some parts of the country Tier 2 brought R below 1 whereas in others it didn’t. Worth noting that the “Tier 2” over the summer wasn’t legally enforceable as much as this one and talking to my contacts in Manchester and the NW, everyone just ignored it. 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

In some parts of the country Tier 2 brought R below 1 whereas in others it didn’t. Worth noting that the “Tier 2” over the summer wasn’t legally enforceable as much as this one and talking to my contacts in Manchester and the NW, everyone just ignored it. 

This is it - it's down to the areas and I think it's a poor/less poor divide. Places like Bolton and oldham somehow get worse the more restrictions are added...

[Crazyfool01]

33 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I think they need to put more incentives in place to get tested if mass testing of towns is rolled out. 

Right now there's no reason for people to, other than good will. 

 

definitely need to incentivise people locking down with positive tests ...

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

This is it - it's down to the areas and I think it's a poor/less poor divide. Places like Bolton and oldham somehow get worse the more restrictions are added...

Its major “pub economics” to say simplistic things like “Tier 2 didn’t get the R below 1 in one area, therefore it won’t work anywhere”. Different localities have different characteristics which make different sets of restrictions more/less appropriate. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

definitely need to incentivise people locking down with positive tests ...

Just fucking pay them. Seriously. And once we get the prevalence down below a certain level, pay them to isolate in government facilities. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

Just fucking pay them. Seriously. And once we get the prevalence down below a certain level, pay them to isolate in government facilities. 

yep absolutely ... not just the people on UC  ... we are spending on furlough anyway so the quicker we get the rate down the quicker people can get off furlough 

[Fuzzy Afro]

@Toilet Duck Sounds like Sinopharm are claiming victory in the race to find a working vaccine. What are the chances that Western countries will approve a Chinese vaccine? 

[Crazyfool01]

and whilst here @Toilet Duck anything  you can add about the worrying signs from the mink in Denmark and our vaccines coming .... will they protect us from this latest strain ?

[Superscally]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

We're not though and we have learnt nothing. Because of our libertarianism we are relying solely on luck here - if this is as much of a threat to everything as they're making out, this particular quarantine needs enforcing properly. Put them into hotels but dont leave it to their own decision making - they just wont isolate 

I know someone from down south who went on holiday to an area that required isolation, not just with his missus from Warrington area, but with three other family groups from that area. Not only did they not isolate when they came back, but they went back to work the day after getting back. One is a beauty therapist. Fuckssake. If anyone goes on holiday or travels to a country that has no travel corridor then they should be forced to pay for a full board hotel for 2 weeks. If the travel rug gets pulled after they leave, then government does the paying. 

[Leyrulion]

25 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

definitely need to incentivise people locking down with positive tests ...

Right now no one's seeing family so you don't even have the carrot of protecting them.

All that happens is you get 35 phone calls a day from test and trace and potentially a 10k fine if you take the dog for a walk.