Don't vote Tory

[mjsell]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I'd genuinely give it a watch. These things are normally boring with a couple of stand-out moments but this was just flat-out weird.

I wouldn't say Corbyn won it by any means, but the Tories certainly lost it. And I don't think that was through May not being there. I've never seen the Tories do so badly in any sort of televised discussion or interview. 

Corbyn was actually awake today (unlike at the Andrew Neil interview) and came across better than, frankly, I ever thought he could in this sort of environment. Paul Nuttal got torn apart by everyone except Rudd. And Rudd barely did anything.

I want you to watch it so you can tell me I'm living in my liberal bubble and Amber Rudd being disastrous was just my confirmation bias. Because it really didn't feel like that.

You are certainly exaggerating a bit. 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

I want you to watch it so you can tell me I'm living in my liberal bubble and Amber Rudd being disastrous was just my confirmation bias. Because it really didn't feel like that.

Question is: was her being crap &/or May giving it the swerve electorally damaging to the tories? 

It doesn't necessarily follow that it is.

 

[Mr.Tease]

I think Corbyn didn't do well enough to change anyone's mind, but by turning up he allowed for all the attacks on May not turning up, which will hopefully have more impact than the debate probably will. 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

Question is: was her being crap &/or May giving it the swerve electorally damaging to the tories? 

It doesn't necessarily follow that it is.

 

Yup the next lot of polls will be interesting.

1 minute ago, mjsell said:

You are certainly exaggerating a bit. 

I'm not saying it was a knockout win but these things normally run pretty close - as in the main leaders are within a few points of each other. It also seems far from that.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Yup the next lot of polls will be interesting.

I've seen it suggested that the tories are deliberately trying to lose this election. If that's true, they're having to try very hard.  

[p.pete]

Indy's writeup rates corbyn as fairly rubbish - they make some good points.  I didn't think he stood out enough to stand out as a better option than greens or ld

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Indy's writeup rates corbyn as fairly rubbish - they make some good points.  I didn't think he stood out enough to stand out as a better option than greens or ld

Their politics editor, Rentoul or whatever his name is hates Corbyn- tweeted then deleted that he was to blame or something bizarre like that after that terrorist attack in France! Most people say he was neither good nor bad, didn't particularly stand out. I have no idea because I'm biased, but like I said, the benefits of corbyn appearing might be more indirect: 

A) Allows the attacks on May for not appearing (hopefully the damage is adding up and she's looking like a fraud)

B )  Most of the candidates agreed roughly with Labour's policies (more spending etc) which made it seem less crazy and more acceptable, hopefully 

You never know! Latest poll shows Labour only 3pts behind which I don't believe at all- Yougov has lost the plot! Others today showed them 12 pts behind. Fuck knows what the truth is at this point. I refuse to get my heart broken on election day so I'll assume the tories will win and win big until proven otherwise! 

 

 

[Andy0808 v5]

[waterfalls212434]

long way behind in the polls that 3 points......lol

[Ommadawn]

It's YOUGOV again though isn't it.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

It's YOUGOV again though isn't it.

just been thru this in another thread.

It's their old-new methodology, so it's the one which takes youngsters at their word about voting (and doesn't attempt to do anything by constituency).

The polls showing a bigger gap are working from history and so saying about 1/3rd of those 'I'll vote' claims from youngsters are porkies.

I'd guess the truth is probably somewhere between those two views.

Edited May 31, 2017 by eFestivals

[clarkete]

On 2017-5-29 at 7:29 AM, eFestivals said:

Which might be why I've been pointing out that a line about saving is a crock of shite and the public know it, and why using that line about 'saving' is ineffective?

No, that's because you're too busy having multiple heated discussions to read the responses of others. 

 

[DeanoL]

At this rate there's a decent chance we see a poll from a respected polling organisation that actually puts Corbyn ahead in the next week! Which is ridiculous. 

I mean obviously the Labour polls slump in the two days prior and then May increases her majority but seriously, I wouldn't have believed a poll like the YouGov one would ever have been possible a month ago. 

[elbongo]

Anyway... Dont vote Tory. 

[stuartbert two hats]

22 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

just been thru this in another thread.

It's their old-new methodology, so it's the one which takes youngsters at their word about voting (and doesn't attempt to do anything by constituency).

The polls showing a bigger gap are working from history and so saying about 1/3rd of those 'I'll vote' claims from youngsters are porkies.

I'd guess the truth is probably somewhere between those two views.

So it's not this one? Honest question, I'm struggling to keep track.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-election-model-q/

"What is the model and how does it work?

It works by modelling every constituency and key voter types in Britain based on analysis of key demographics as well as voting behaviour in the 2015 general election and the 2016 EU referendum. Every day, YouGov conducts approximately 7,000 interviews with registered voters from our panel, who are shown both the parties and candidates running in their particular seat. This data is used to assess how each type of voter is shaping the race in every type of constituency in Britain. From this, the model calculates daily voting intention and seat estimates."

EDIT: I can't see anything on the site that suggests this latest result is anything other than the weighted model - it's not a straight poll.  That doesn't mean it's not wrong, since it's clearly flying against the face of other polls. But if it is wrong it's because the modelling is wrong, not because it takes a naive view of the data.

Edited May 31, 2017 by stuartbert two hats

[DeanoL]

It's the same data but fed into two different places. They interview people, and from that get their numbers on vote share which were being quoted just. They ask people how likely they are to vote as part of this, and factor that in (so a "maybe" is worth half as much as a "definitely"). The other polling companies have stopped doing this (because young people historically said "definitely" when they meant "no") and instead just weight it on age. So they know only two-thirds of 25 year olds actually go vote so so those votes are worth 67% of a vote,etc. 

They also ask people where they live, and yesterday got to the point where they had enough data to make very broad estimates on actual constituency level stuff.

[eFestivals]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

So it's not this one? Honest question, I'm struggling to keep track.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-election-model-q/

"What is the model and how does it work?

It works by modelling every constituency and key voter types in Britain

no, it's not that one.

It's this one:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-39-30-31-/

[eFestivals]

PS: stoinking big 'don't know' in that. How does anyone not know?

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

no, it's not that one.

It's this one:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-39-30-31-/

Ah, just saw the important passage

"Please note these voting intention figures are from YouGov's conventional polling, not our new election model."

Thanks for the link.

[stuartbert two hats]

Apologies if this has been covered, but I've only just noticed that whilst the model is showing slightly different results, but still with a 3 point difference:

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

[stuartbert two hats]

Those seat projections though...

311 vs 255

EDIT:  I get the feeling this is what you've been talking about for days and I've only just cottoned on.  There was a lineup out this week you know

Edited May 31, 2017 by stuartbert two hats

[Spindles]

Be honest though.  It does feel like something significant has been achieved in these last 10 days, doesn't it?  It feels like, despite 2 years of negative press Jeremy Corbyn has got out there, in the rallies, in the streets and on people's screens and convinced people to put aside those preconceptions, to ignore that negativity and to listen to someone whose delivered a manifesto that people really want.

2 weeks ago on this forum I was told that Labour were heading towards the worst election result since the 30s.  I felt then that that was hyperbole, I feel so now.  Like Neil I feel that polling isn't entirely representative, but I do feel it shows a clear pattern, one of Labour fighting back, of people starting to hope, to believe that change IS possible.

I look forward to seeing the result in a little over a week's time.  Whatever it is, however it goes I am certain it will be better than the naysayers would have had us believe.

[Ommadawn]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Those seat projections though...

311 vs 255

EDIT:  I get the feeling this is what you've been talking about for days and I've only just cottoned on.  There was a lineup out this week you know

Really?

Line up to what exactly?

[eFestivals]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Those seat projections though...

311 vs 255

I wouldn't hover your mouse over them then :P

[Spindles]