Don't vote Tory

[Ommadawn]

8 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Be honest though.  It does feel like something significant has been achieved in these last 10 days, doesn't it?  It feels like, despite 2 years of negative press Jeremy Corbyn has got out there, in the rallies, in the streets and on people's screens and convinced people to put aside those preconceptions, to ignore that negativity and to listen to someone whose delivered a manifesto that people really want.

2 weeks ago on this forum I was told that Labour were heading towards the worst election result since the 30s.  I felt then that that was hyperbole, I feel so now.  Like Neil I feel that polling isn't entirely representative, but I do feel it shows a clear pattern, one of Labour fighting back, of people starting to hope, to believe that change IS possible.

I look forward to seeing the result in a little over a week's time.  Whatever it is, however it goes I am certain it will be better than the naysayers would have had us believe.

Brexit aside, I think people want a change after years of austerity. Labour are offering an alternative which is unusual in recent times but can they deliver under Jeremy Corbyn? Personally, I don't think so but plenty of people seem to think so. This Sunday's polls are probably the ones to look to in order to get a realistic feeling of what's likely to happen next Thursday. They never seem to move much in the last week.

Edited May 31, 2017 by Ommadawn

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, eFestivals said:

13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Those seat projections though...

311 vs 255

I wouldn't hover your mouse over them then

Why not, they tell me the upper range for Labour is 289 and the lower range for the Tories is 275. Obviously that's not the likely outcome, but it's waaaay waaay better than anyone dreamt of the day the election was called.

Come on comrades, one week to go. Let's win this. JEZ WE CAN!

 

Somehow I don't think that's quite the point you were making

 

[Spindles]

Oh yeah, anything could happen, anything at all, I agree.  However I am elated to see the Labour party, left wing politics in general being back on the agenda, back being seen as a credible alternative to austerity.  The Amber Rudd reaction sums it up perfectly, people ARE judging on their record, of record homelessness, record poverty and quietly selling off the post office to their mates.

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Oh yeah, anything could happen, anything at all, I agree.  However I am elated to see the Labour party, left wing politics in general being back on the agenda, back being seen as a credible alternative to austerity.  The Amber Rudd reaction sums it up perfectly, people ARE judging on their record, of record homelessness, record poverty and quietly selling off the post office to their mates.

The exciting thing is that for the first time since Gordon Brown was leader, the political agenda seems to be being set by the Labour party. Corbyn is being treated as a politician, not a joke. It's utterly remarkable. I voted for the man twice and was looking forward to getting him replaced after the party was crushed. But I can't see that happening now, the way this campaign has gone.

Edited May 31, 2017 by stuartbert two hats
Neither -> being

[Bonaneas]

10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The exciting thing is that for the first time since Gordon Brown was leader, the political agenda seems to be being set by the Labour party. Corbyn is being treated as a politician, not a joke. It's utterly remarkable. I voted for the man twice and was looking forward to getting him replaced after the party was crushed. But I can't see that happening now, the way this campaign has gone.

Gordon brown couldn't set a bowl of custard in the arctic circle, never mind the political agenda. Everything that's gone wrong with this country since 2008 was all his fault. If his greedy ambition & ego hadn't made him hang on to power for dear life until the very end of that parliament, things would be very different now. He should have called an election as soon as he took over, then trounced the tories in that 2007/8 election before the crash, which would have kept Cameron at bay, which wouldn't have given us the 2010 coalition or Brexit referendum or the 2015 Tory landslide. The greedy we fucker. Ego first, country last for that one. 

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Bonaneas said:

Gordon brown couldn't set a bowl of custard in the arctic circle, never mind the political agenda. Everything that's gone wrong with this country since 2008 was all his fault. If his greedy ambition & ego hadn't made him hang on to power for dear life until the very end of that parliament, things would be very different now. He should have called an election as soon as he took over, then trounced the tories in that 2007/8 election before the crash, which would have kept Cameron at bay, which wouldn't have given us the 2010 coalition or Brexit referendum or the 2015 Tory landslide. The greedy we fucker. Ego first, country last for that one. 

All fair points. I was being a bit generous to Brown, but given that the Tories initially signed up to his spending plans, he certainly had more control of the agenda than any of his successors until this last week or so.  Obviously he lost any control of the narrative before he lost power.

Who knows what would have happened if he'd not bottled it? As we've seen, things can change quite a bit one the campaigning begins. The Tories might still have won.

[Babylon sister]

I'm just catching up with the debate on BBC. Interesting times, Although he won't get my vote I really like Jeremy Corbyn, I hope he does well next week.

[Levitz]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Question is: was her being crap &/or May giving it the swerve electorally damaging to the tories? 

It doesn't necessarily follow that it is.

 

Headline on every news bulletin was about the debate and noting she ducked it. I do think that's damaging when the wheels are falling off the May bandwagon (notice more Conservative mentions are getting in now) and she set the tone of the election being about her competence. Complacency and an inability to give up any sort of control have ruined her campaign, she won't engage with anyone 'normal' people who might actually disagree with her. It goes to her competence in govt too, some interesting quotes Yvette Copper tweeted about her propensity to hide as Home Sec whenever it got tough. The control freakery, poor decision making and paralysis in face of difficult decisions are something I've also experienced first hand in her short reign as PM.  She isn't equipped for the job and is being found out.

However, and don't want to piss on anyone's chips but they'll still win, prob with a big majority. The Labour polling relies on people who don't always vote voting.  Those poll numbers make huge assumptions on under 25 turnout, have a high proportion of undecideds and always underestimate shy Tories. The numbers also galvanise Tory core support to vote. People need to keep focus and get everyone out and by all means hope for  the best , but for me it's all about minimising the majority. 

I was never a massive Corbyn fan but he's definitely grown on me, he actually seems to be able to engage with people if you get to hear him rather than read about how he's the devil incarnate/inept/both. Reckon this last week is going to be brutal in the press........and Crosby is back in charge of Tory campaign so it's going to be unpleasant.....

[arcade fireman]

From the Torygraph but this guy got a lot of recent political predictions right by the sounds of it:

 

Quote

 

A surprisingly decisive performance in this week’s "Battle for No 10" showdown against Paxman, not to mention the social care malaise around May, and suddenly it appears that Corbyn, according to YouGov, is gaining the momentum to force a hung Parliament,and perhaps even become prime minister.

From my rather unusual position as a pundit who correctly predicted the results of the EU Referendum, Scottish referendum and 2015 General Election within 0.3 per cent, I can safely say it won’t happen – and would even go as far to say that the Conservatives remain safely on course for a three-figure majority. Let me explain. 

Why do the pollsters get it wrong?  One of the main factors is their focus on the here-and-now among those of voting age, rather than the long-term wave patterns of the real electorate: those who actually go out and vote. Also, Labour’s polling is being boosted by its over-representation among the young and others who are less likely to cast their ballot.

Two other key variables are prone to error: the "undecideds" who, in actual fact, have often made up their mind but won't say, and the "shy" who claim one view and then vote entirely differently in the polling booth. To predict which way these voters will jump requires analysing behaviour, not just statements of intent.

Taking the EU referendum as an example. My team forecast a week before the vote that Leave would win by 52-53 per cent. We stuck by this, even on the evening of  June 23, when the latest Populus poll put Remain ahead by 10 per cent and YouGov by 4 per cent.

Let us not forget that YouGov got it wrong in 2015 and 2016.  I predict Peter Keller, former President of YouGov, will be writing another article later in June in titled "Why we got it wrong" as he did after the last general election.

Another reason for this particular discrepancy is that pollsters typically attribute two-thirds of the "undecideds" to the status quo. In the Referendum they assumed that the status quo was to remain in the EU. 

However, when we conducted in-depth, to-camera interviews around the country, we discovered that, for most voters, the status quo was being in the UK; they had never voted to join the EU. What’s more, while many stated that they would vote Leave, they would not say so to camera for fear of being labelled as "quasi-Faragistas". Based on this, we used our Polling Calibration technique to come up with our forecast, which, as it turned out, was just 0.1 per cent out.

This was no fluke. We also predicted, unlike the pollsters, an outright Conservative single-figure win in 2015 (they won by six seats); that the Yes Vote in Scotland would not get more than 45 per cent (it received 44.7 per cent); and that this year the Conservatives would win Copeland and Labour would hold Stoke (they did).

So, what does this election and the future have in store? As a starting point, look at the scores for which party the electorate trusts on the economy and which leader they want to see as Prime Minister. There has never been an election where the party and leader that is behind on these has gone on to win. May’s lead is still almost double that of Corbyn’s on both counts.

We have heard from many lifelong Labour voters who in private not only say they won’t vote for Corbyn but will vote Conservative for the first time. The reason is often more emotional than rational, based on a snatched, historical perception, like the fact that he did not sing the national anthem.

Added to that, whatever the criticisms of the repetitive "strong, stable leadership" versus "Corbyn Chaos" mantra is, Lynton Crosby has struck upon a winning formula, which will be mercilessly activated in the key battleground seats over the coming days. (The pollsters measure nationally but we in effect have 650 local elections.)

Social care wobbles aside, come  June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov. 

 

 

[Mr.Tease]

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

PS: stoinking big 'don't know' in that. How does anyone not know?

 

This is probably a really stupid question but where are the don't knows in the voting intention part of the poll? (I can see them in the who would make the best PM part but not the party breakdown) They never seem to show it but it's pretty important 

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

This is probably a really stupid question but where are the don't knows in the voting intention part of the poll? (I can see them in the who would make the best PM part but not the party breakdown) They never seem to show it but it's pretty important 

sorry, that was a mention of the 'best PM' bit rather than anything else.

With the differences so stark, I'm surprised to see so many still sat on the fence.

[Mr.Tease]

7 hours ago, Spindles said:

Be honest though.  It does feel like something significant has been achieved in these last 10 days, doesn't it?  It feels like, despite 2 years of negative press Jeremy Corbyn has got out there, in the rallies, in the streets and on people's screens and convinced people to put aside those preconceptions, to ignore that negativity and to listen to someone whose delivered a manifesto that people really want.

2 weeks ago on this forum I was told that Labour were heading towards the worst election result since the 30s.  I felt then that that was hyperbole, I feel so now.  Like Neil I feel that polling isn't entirely representative, but I do feel it shows a clear pattern, one of Labour fighting back, of people starting to hope, to believe that change IS possible.

I look forward to seeing the result in a little over a week's time.  Whatever it is, however it goes I am certain it will be better than the naysayers would have had us believe.

When I voted for Corbyn the first time, it was mainly because I thought none of the leadership candidates were winners but there would be no election so he'd provide an opposition which was better than just aping the tories (got fed up of every tory policy being met by Labour with essentially 'we'd match it') and working with people on the receiving end of the disability cuts, it was also an emotional stance for me (if you won't fight that then what will you fight). Also I hoped he'd open up the party to fresh talent and give some new Mps a go on in the shadow cabinet. (we need new talent!)

Second time I voted for him mainly because Owen Smith was far worse and (again an emotional response) I couldn't bring myself to boot Corbyn out! (plus a lot of the PLP annoyed me with their lying and inept strategy of insulting the party members). Again I didn't think they'd be an election.

I then shat myself when an election was called (I said at the time we should block it) because I'd let go of my fantasy that if people just gave him a chance he'd do much better, so this is very unexpected.

I still don't believe the polls or think we'll win, but I do think May has trashed her reputation now and even I'd she wins her honeymoon is well and truly over. 

[Mr.Tease]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

sorry, that was a mention of the 'best PM' bit rather than anything else.

With the differences so stark, I'm surprised to see so many still sat on the fence.

Yes, I realised that but then I went looking for the don't knows in voting intention and realised theyre never given, which odd following the EU referendum 

[arcade fireman]

4 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Yes, I realised that but then I went looking for the don't knows in voting intention and realised theyre never given, which odd following the EU referendum 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/imdk9bjaff/TimesResults_170531_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

15% on the most recent YouGov poll said they don't know - it's usually buried in the data as the pollsters try and reallocate the don't knows based on both past behaviour and supplementary questions about who they think they'll probably vote for. 

[Mr.Tease]

4 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/imdk9bjaff/TimesResults_170531_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

15% on the most recent YouGov poll said they don't know - it's usually buried in the data as the pollsters try and reallocate the don't knows based on both past behaviour and supplementary questions about who they think they'll probably vote for. 

Ah thanks! That's interesting - might explain why they sometimes slightly underestimate change (as that methodology would slightly weight things on past behaviour) 

[Mr.Tease]

I do get the tories original strategy (if you're going to win big anyway, why give away much in the manifesto as it would only constrain you/give something to put people off).

However now the polls are not so good for them it's a bit of a problem- what stood out on the leadership debate was all the other parties said what they'd do on each issue while the tories just said 'we realise there are big challenges ' or 'judge us on our record' it just came across as awful, like they had no answers or vision

[arcade fireman]

I think whatever happens this has made 2022 a lot more competitive (or rather, possibly 2021 or earlier given the abolition of the Fixed Parliaments Act in the Tory manifesto). I do think though that unless Labour manage to do well enough to force a hung Parliament or to take seats off the Tories, nabbing the extra seats needed to actually govern with Corbyn/his allies at the helm would prove incredibly difficult. 

But we'll see what next week brings. Poll tracker averages are predicting still a 9-11 point Tory lead, which would lead to a Tory majority of 80 or so. 

[eFestivals]

 

11 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

However now the polls are not so good for them

that's a view. Other views are available.

Such as that the polls will ensure that their vote goes out and votes, when they might not have if the polls weren't causing worries.

13 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

like they had no answers or vision

They've got answers, and more honest ones*. The problem for them is that the public shy away from honest, and prefer the fantasy that everything can be had for free.

As for vision, vision isn't what conservatives do, and so it's why there's none from the Conservatives.

(* for the slow, 'honest' is something very different to 'good' or what I want)

[Teddington]

You have to hand it to JC, he has clearly listened to his media managers.  He comes over now as a happy go lucky, laid back, middle aged guy, as opposed to a Communist firebrand (which of course he really is).

Of course he does fluff his lines when probed on things that he hasn't been prepped for and does show the signs of hesitation and lack of awareness that resulted in the approval ratings before the campaign, but in fairness that will only be picked up by 5% of people.

He  has nothing to lose and is doing about as well, if not better than he could possibly have hoped for.

I do get the feeling this is a high water mark for him though.

[Mr.Tease]

31 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

I think whatever happens this has made 2022 a lot more competitive (or rather, possibly 2021 or earlier given the abolition of the Fixed Parliaments Act in the Tory manifesto). I do think though that unless Labour manage to do well enough to force a hung Parliament or to take seats off the Tories, nabbing the extra seats needed to actually govern with Corbyn/his allies at the helm would prove incredibly difficult. 

But we'll see what next week brings. Poll tracker averages are predicting still a 9-11 point Tory lead, which would lead to a Tory majority of 80 or so. 

Yeah, that's why I'm not getting my hopes up- waking up to a tory majority of 80+ will feel like a right kick in the balls! 

[eFestivals]

13 minutes ago, Teddington said:

You have to hand it to JC, he has clearly listened to his media managers. 

apart from when he goes off-piste as he just has again, to promise even more of the world for free. That's one of the problems with Jezza, there's no request for more he's not said he'll fulfil, and nothing of reality (or his own manifesto) gets to hold him back from doing that.

 

16 minutes ago, Teddington said:

He  has nothing to lose and is doing about as well, if not better than he could possibly have hoped for.

I can't disagree with that.

However, the fact that his confidence and abilities are so swayed in the way it's been could be considered worrying.

 

16 minutes ago, Teddington said:

I do get the feeling this is a high water mark for him though.

It's hard to tell where the high water mark is at the mo, to know if there's room for more.

[Mr.Tease]

37 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

apart from when he goes off-piste as he just has again, to promise even more of the world for free. That's one of the problems with Jezza, there's no request for more he's not said he'll fulfil, and nothing of reality (or his own manifesto) gets to hold him back from doing that.

 

I can't disagree with that.

However, the fact that his confidence and abilities are so swayed in the way it's been could be considered worrying.

 

It's hard to tell where the high water mark is at the mo, to know if there's room for more.

Surprisingly labour have taken more than half of the UKIP voters (looking at the numbers I'd assumed they'd all gone Tory), so I'm curious to see the breakdown of who makes up the tory vote.

I think the polls have peaked but the interesting thing will be who changes their mind in the polling booth- will elderly people and their sons and daughters really back the 'dementia tax'? Will pensioners really back the end of winter fuel payments and the ditching of the triple lock? Or will people think brexit and anti terrorism and go for May- I think that will be interesting to see. 

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, Spindles said:

Even she had suppress a laugh when she said it and everyone started laughing. The weird thing is the tories talk as if they have this grand record behind them when they don't. Failed to meet their deficit targets again. Failed to meet immigration targets. 

[Mr.Tease]

8 hours ago, Babylon sister said:

I'm just catching up with the debate on BBC. Interesting times, Although he won't get my vote I really like Jeremy Corbyn, I hope he does well next week.

That's interesting to hear- I'm very biased so don't really trust my judgement in measuring his performance, so it's nice to hear from other people with less entrenched views

[arcade fireman]

5 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Surprisingly labour have taken more than half of the UKIP voters (looking at the numbers I'd assumed they'd all gone Tory), so I'm curious to see the breakdown of who makes up the tory vote.

The YouGov breakdown says out of the 2015 UKIP voters 52% are backing the Tories, 25% UKIP and 19% Labour. 

Tory vote and Labour vote seem to be changing hands at a similar rate according to their poll. 9% of 2015 Con voters are voting Labour, and 10% of 2015 Lab voters are voting Con.

But then this is the same poll which is predicting only a 3% lead, so we shall see how this all pans out...