Weather

[JoBalls]

Conclusion: Every website currently forecasts a dry festival.

I'll keep doing these summaries every day to save everyone from scrawling around different sites.

[Field Commander Jefferson]

Top man! cheers for the updates, all looking encouraging!

Edited June 18, 2013 by Field Commander Jefferson Monkey

[dan05delaney]

Does anyone know how much rain fell in terms mm per day in 2011? Its the only glasto iv been to and want to compare these forecasts against it. It seems a few people on year rate that as a bad year due to the underfoot conditions but i never really thought it was that bad. Friday evening was poor but apart from that it was just a bit hard work getting from place to place.

[wiggle]

Pedmills - I love you.

Keep up the Good work!

[monkey1989]

bbc weather are saying its gonna be pissy from thursday to sunday this week and then lovely in Pilton mon - thurs next (thats as far as it goes) so hopefully it the puddles dry up before we arrive !

Edited June 18, 2013 by monkey1989

[Krazypinkminx]

This thread is killing me!! More than any other as the weather is out of my control, and for anyone that knows me I am a control freak but its looking OK, as long as its not 5 solid days of driving rain I am OK.

[breakschild]

Today's update

Metcheck are forecasting 0mm on the monday, 0.2mm on the tuesday, 0.2mm on the wednesday, 0mm on the thursday, 1.7mm on the friday, 1.6mm on the saturday, 0.8mm on the sunday.

Which would make for a quite dry festival, 2008 or better.

Accuweather are forecasting 1mm on the monday, 1mm on the tuesday, 1mm on the wednesday, 0mm on the thursday, 2mm on the friday, 1mm on the saturday, 1mm on the sunday.

A dry festival, 2008-like.

Netweather say there will be a dry monday, rain on tuesday, a drier wednesday, a drier thursday, a bit of rain on friday, a bit of rain on saturday, a drier sunday.

Because they don't predict how much rain, this isn't very helpful but sounds 2008-like.

The Weather Outlook forecast 0mm on the monday, 0.6mm on the tuesday , 0mm on the wednesday, 0mm on the thursday, 0mm on the friday, 0mm on the saturday, 0mm on the sunday.

That would be a completely dry festival.

The BBC say it will drier and brighter in the south but with bands of light rain.

The Met Office say drier and wetter spells - but with the south being drier than the north.

The Weather Channel say that there is a 10% chain of rain on monday, 20% on tuesday, 10% on wednesday, 20% on thursday - no forecasts after that yet.

yr.no forecast 0.5mm on monday, 0.5mm on tuesday, 0.3mm on wednesday, 0mm on thursday - no forecast after that yet.

Weather Online won't release the 14-day forecasts for local areas for free, but for London they forecast 0.4mm on monday, and then 0mm every day for the rest of the festival.

Conclusion: Every website currently forecasts a dry festival.

I'll keep doing these summaries every day to save everyone from scrawling around different sites.

[ghandi]

I have relented in my decision not to post on this thread, but.......... looking at all the forecasts and even the BBC one going into next week up to Thursday it's looking promising. These could be the death nell as we should really be waiting until later in the week before we get carried away, but i can't wait! AAAHHHH.

[jimmillen]

I have relented in my decision not to post on this thread, but.......... looking at all the forecasts and even the BBC one going into next week up to Thursday it's looking promising. These could be the death nell as we should really be waiting until later in the week before we get carried away, but i can't wait! AAAHHHH.

[scaryclaireyfairy]

^^^^ THIS! Whisper quietly, people. Don't you know you can scare a good forecast away if you get too excited?

Edited June 18, 2013 by scaryclaireyfairy

[Magma]

Getting too tense now. I've reached the point in my Glastonbury build up where all I can do is refresh the EFestivals weather thread and tell everyone at work to "shut up, I normally come back with sunburn!"

[ghandi]

[Aby]

Getting too tense now. I've reached the point in my Glastonbury build up where all I can do is refresh the EFestivals weather thread and tell everyone at work to "shut up, I normally come back with sunburn!"

[chestwig]

Today's update

Metcheck are forecasting 0mm on the monday, 0.2mm on the tuesday, 0.2mm on the wednesday, 0mm on the thursday, 1.7mm on the friday, 1.6mm on the saturday, 0.8mm on the sunday.

Which would make for a quite dry festival, 2008 or better.

Accuweather are forecasting 1mm on the monday, 1mm on the tuesday, 1mm on the wednesday, 0mm on the thursday, 2mm on the friday, 1mm on the saturday, 1mm on the sunday.

A dry festival, 2008-like.

Netweather say there will be a dry monday, rain on tuesday, a drier wednesday, a drier thursday, a bit of rain on friday, a bit of rain on saturday, a drier sunday.

Because they don't predict how much rain, this isn't very helpful but sounds 2008-like.

The Weather Outlook forecast 0mm on the monday, 0.6mm on the tuesday , 0mm on the wednesday, 0mm on the thursday, 0mm on the friday, 0mm on the saturday, 0mm on the sunday.

That would be a completely dry festival.

The BBC say it will drier and brighter in the south but with bands of light rain.

The Met Office say drier and wetter spells - but with the south being drier than the north.

The Weather Channel say that there is a 10% chain of rain on monday, 20% on tuesday, 10% on wednesday, 20% on thursday - no forecasts after that yet.

yr.no forecast 0.5mm on monday, 0.5mm on tuesday, 0.3mm on wednesday, 0mm on thursday - no forecast after that yet.

Weather Online won't release the 14-day forecasts for local areas for free, but for London they forecast 0.4mm on monday, and then 0mm every day for the rest of the festival.

Weather-wherever forecast 0mm on monday, 0mm on tuesday, 0mm on wednesday, 0.1mm on thursday, 0mm on friday, 0.4mm on saturday, 0.9mm on sunday.

Dry festival.

Conclusion: Every website currently forecasts a dry festival.

I'll keep doing these summaries every day to save everyone from scrawling around different sites.

[rhysieg]

hope its not peaking too soon!!!!

[caroldecker]

Conclusion: Every website currently forecasts a dry festival.

I'll keep doing these summaries every day to save everyone from scrawling around different sites.

Edited June 18, 2013 by caroldecker

[briddj]

difference is the ground saturation, in 2011 it hammered it down all week so the ground was already then we just churned it all up

[scorp]

the latest 16 day forecast from TWO looks very good for the fest. click on page 2 to see the fest week:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/glastonbury

two or 3 days ago it was forecasing sunshine and showers, or a bit worse. now tiz forecasing sun. but it's a way to go to later next week, so keep yer fingaz crossed.

[Evilredzebra]

Very happy with these updates. I'm beginning to feel a bit of "the other thread" mentality coming on though!!!

Doing no work at all, Just browsing the forums and making lists!

[jeffie]

Very happy with these updates. I'm beginning to feel a bit of "the other thread" mentality coming on though!!!

Doing no work at all, Just browsing the forums and making lists!

[scaryclaireyfairy]

Very happy with these updates. I'm beginning to feel a bit of "the other thread" mentality coming on though!!!

Doing no work at all, Just browsing the forums and making lists!

[JoeyT]

102,020 views in this thread.

Britons obsessed with the weather? yeah right

[Georgeh]

BBC forecast look good from Monday onwards http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648559 fingers crossed for a repeat of 2010 (well maybe not as hot).

[howlin_pete]

If anyone wants a mild heart attack, here is Jackone's 2007 forecast (he posted it this morning for a bit of 'fun'). I was hoping to see that he had already predicted it to fuck it down all weekend by this point, but looks like it was pretty 'uncertain' by this point. Sound familiar?

Edit: I see this was posted earlier today. Carry on

The last couple of days have suggested a pattern for the festival, unsettled to start with some rain likely over the Wednesday and Thursday and maybe the Friday,

and gradually turning drier as move into the weekend, Will today's charts confirm this or suggest further changes.

Wednesday

As Wednesday is only 96 hours away, we should be becoming pretty confident of the weather for Wednesday, and this is confirmed by the models, there is low pressure

centred over Southern Ireland with pressure around 1000mb, this will certainly give an unsettled day for the UK, with some rainfall likely, looking at the GFS rainfall

charts, a band of rain should effect Glastonbury around lunchtime and this is set to give several hours of moderate rain, however this should be replaced with some

showers later. The GEFS ensembles charts back up the overall picture both in terms of pressure and rainfall amounts.

Thursday

The general unsettled theme is continued by the models, but with slight variations with the ECM and UKMO and the GEFS ensemble average chart, maintaining the low

pressure over the UK, with the GFS pushing the low pressure further to the SW. The general picture and GFS rainfall charts would most likely mean a mix of some

heavy showers and the chance of more general rain during the day for Glastonbury.

Friday

The unsettled theme again confirmed by the modules, but again with exact details difficult to pinpoint at the moment,

but another unsettled day would be likely with the risk of frontal rain or some heavy showers. I have attached the CAPE forecast (GFS) for the Friday and this

indicates a very high risk of thunderstorms for southern parts of the UK, however in terms of this, we are still a very long way off.

Saturday

Both charts show a transition day with low-pressure pushing away to the east and with high pressure starting to make a move in. However,

there is still the risk of showers and the CAPE levels (not shown) are again high giving a risk of thunderstorms, but most GEFS ensemble runs do not support this,

so the risk is less than on Friday. However some heavy showers cannot be ruled out.

Sunday

ECM shows high pressure establishing itself over the UK with the GFS doing this but to a lesser extent, so some uncertainty as regards to the weather but it should

be drier than most days of the festival, but with the risk of the odd shower. Temperatures look like being in high teens, maybe hitting the low 20cs in any sunshine.

Summary

We are now in the reliable timeframe certainly for the start of the festival, two wet days seems likely for Wednesday and Thursday, whether in the from of frontal

rain and heavy showers. Friday and Saturday are less clear and there is still some uncertainty, but there is potential for thunderstorms, especially on the Friday,

which can be very hit and miss, it may remain dry, but a deluge is also possible. Sunday, looks like being the brightest day with only light showers at worst.

If you are going to the festival, make certain that you have waterproofs just in case, hopefully you will not need them, bur probably you will, and of course

enjoy the festival. The next blog will be done as usual late tomorrow evening.

Edited June 18, 2013 by howlin_pete

[Mkbarnes2001]

Sun has popped out to visit Bristol right now, it's pretty hot too!!