Don't vote Tory

[arcade fireman]

2 minutes ago, waterfalls212434 said:

I also see people who view yougov etc as some sort of totally neutral at all times gods of public opinion as just as gormless,  In terms of yougov there is good reason to doubt the polls non bias when it comes to politics YouGov was founded by Tory Minister Nadhim Zahawi and Stephan Shakespeare profiled here http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2009/05/stephan-shakespeare-democracy-in-the-postbureaucratic-age.html

would you trust polls carried out by the tory party on labours election chances to be unbiased? No? so why do you trust the company these 2 setup and run to be the same?

There are numerous examples of charts used to portray data in a `certain way` questions worded to `direct` people to the preferred answer, misuse of data to create `percentages` that make no sense etc etc.

Im not saying the above guy is right to quote a silly tv poll......but dont call him an idiot and then stand up for yougov in the same post as thats utterly stupid.  

You're talking absolute shit. YouGov is pretty much the most accurate pollster we have.

For the EU referendum they were only 3% out - it just happened to be either side of the 50/50 divide.

For the notorious 2015 General election they were 3% out with each party and that was the worst result they had.

For the 2010 GE they were within 1% out.

They predicted the London mayoral election, the Scottish independence referendum and both Labour leadership contests in the last two years right. 

Certainly they are no less accurate and probably more accurate than the other polling companies we have.

I don't give a shit who owns YouGov. All that matters is how accurate they are and they're a hell of a lot more accurate than an ITV online poll. 

Like I said, I am sick of the left being spoken for by people with little critical thinking abilities. Learn how to analyse numbers quantitatively rather than the political allegiance of the person owning the business that compiles them and then come back to me. 

 

[Abensie]

The funny thing is that all these angry people calling other fellow festival goers c**ts and such like, bought this upon the country themselves by supporting a luny left wing candidate to take over the party thinking that the country was suddenly going to wake up and think, "my god!  I should have realised i am a socialist/borderline communist years ago!  This charismatic labour chap has me converted!", rather than, "jesus flipping christ, who is this doddering, terrorist apologist, incompetent, unable to debate, economically illiterate fool and his side kick who waves around Mao's little red book in parliament!!"

I knew that Labour would collapse, everyone i know knew it.  The far left attempt at a coup was cloud cuckoo land from day one and it is still cloud cuckoo land.  

I will not stoop to calling those that registered and voted for Corbyn and destroyed the only thing preventing a Tory dictatorship c**ts, but i am suggesting that they are not the sharpest tools in the box.  Sometimes you need to do politics to try and stop the bad guys, not to be purist extremists.  I despair because it is too late.  Anyone on here who is deluded enough to think that there will be some sort of Christmas miracle at the polling booth are going to feel much like they did last June. 24 point leads do not lie. They are not 49/51 polls.  They are nailed on.  No amount of tactical voting is going to make a difference.

What anti-Tories should be campaigning for is a competent centre-left candidate to take the Labour reigns immediately, or start a new party, not because there is any chance of winning this time but because they'll need 5 years to rebuild.

As i write this the Telegraph report the latest poll predict a 150 seat Tory majority.  People need to get real on Corbyn lead labour.  Now.

[waterfalls212434]

16 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

You're talking absolute shit. YouGov is pretty much the most accurate pollster we have.

For the EU referendum they were only 3% out - it just happened to be either side of the 50/50 divide.

For the notorious 2015 General election they were 3% out with each party and that was the worst result they had.

For the 2010 GE they were within 1% out.

They predicted the London mayoral election, the Scottish independence referendum and both Labour leadership contests in the last two years right. 

Certainly they are no less accurate and probably more accurate than the other polling companies we have.

I don't give a shit who owns YouGov. All that matters is how accurate they are and they're a hell of a lot more accurate than an ITV online poll. 

Like I said, I am sick of the left being spoken for by people with little critical thinking abilities. Learn how to analyse numbers quantitatively rather than the political allegiance of the person owning the business that compiles them and then come back to me. 

 

Accuracy and bias are two different things pal........ im simply staying the valid opinion that a polling company setup and run by members and associates of the fucking tory party should not be trusted to be an unbiased source! basic logic! how can you argue with that? 

another c**t having a rant at `the left` rather then the tory party. why dont you pin the blue rosette on and fuck off over there eh? fed up of hearing it.

 

Edited April 24, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[arcade fireman]

Just now, waterfalls212434 said:

Accuracy and bias are to different things pal........ im simply staying the valid opinion that a polling company setup and run by members and associates of the fucking tory party should not be trusted to be an unbiased source! basic logic! how can you argue with that? 

another c**t having a rant at `the left` rather then the tory party. why dont you pin the blue rosette on and fuck off over there eh? fed up of hearing it.

 

You do realise these guys are running a business? And a polling business won't get very fucking far off the ground if it deliberately posts numbers that are way out of step? Let's not even forget that whenever the polls have got things wrong. they've always UNDERestimated the Tory vote. So again, this thinking makes no sense. Why would these supposedly biased polling companies under report the Tory vote/over reporting the Labour vote then suddenly, one year start doing the opposite?

No, I'm not having a rant at the left. I'm having a rant at some of the loudest voices on the left. People like you, with a brain the size of a gnat's arse. Or our friend whose tweet I quoted. 

Still, keep telling people who will vote Labour to "fuck off and pin the blue rosette on". You are part of the problem. You are part of the reason this country is going to wallow in another five years of Tory misery. I hope you're happy with yourself. Because plenty of people are being put off by idiots like you and are pinning a blue rosette on. 

[arcade fireman]

21 minutes ago, Abensie said:

As i write this the Telegraph report the latest poll predict a 150 seat Tory majority.  People need to get real on Corbyn lead labour.  Now.

I agree with most of what you said, but conversely this is the one time Labour need to show some semblance of unity during the campaign. Because when the shit show happens the Corbynites will be looking for any excuse to justify it was "disunity" which cost Jezza his glorious election victory, rather than the fact they were completely wrong from day one. What comes after the election is more important than the next six weeks. 

[Abensie]

Good point.  And the new guard need to not be tainted by the defeat i suppose.  In that sense it would be better for a new party to form or break away.

[arcade fireman]

Just now, Abensie said:

Good point.  And the new guard need to not be tainted by the defeat i suppose.  In that sense it would be better for a new party to form or break away.

A new party would be a disaster. Absolute last resort. There's no precedent for it and would end up splitting the vote like the SDP in the 1980s. If even 4 or so of the 26 MPs who backed Corbyn in the leadership contest last year can be persuaded to move away from the faction after a bad defeat then that side of the party hopefully won't have enough nominations for the leadership contest. 

[Abensie]

5 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

A new party would be a disaster. Absolute last resort. There's no precedent for it and would end up splitting the vote like the SDP in the 1980s. If even 4 or so of the 26 MPs who backed Corbyn in the leadership contest last year can be persuaded to move away from the faction after a bad defeat then that side of the party hopefully won't have enough nominations for the leadership contest. 

It depends on the scale of the disaster.  I think there is plenty of precedent for breakaway MPs to form a new party?  It could be that the majority of what is left of the party breakaway under a new Leader.  The left have the Leadership sewn up now, another Leadership contest could quite possibly yield an even worse candidate. 

But i concede that it may be best to wait until after the vote. Although,quite frankly, i can;t see it getting much worse than it already is *touch wood*

Edited April 24, 2017 by Abensie

[arcade fireman]

3 minutes ago, Abensie said:

It depends on the scale of the disaster.  I think there is plenty of precedent for breakaway MPs to form a new party?  It could be that the majority of what is left of the party breakaway under a new Leader.  The left have the Leadership sewn up now, another Leadership contest could quite possibly yield an even worse candidate. 

But i concede that it may be best to wait until after the vote. Although,quite frankly, i can;t see it getting much worse than it already is *touch wood*

The left of the party definitely don't have the next leader sewn up. It will be massively touch and go as to whether there are enough MPs/MEPs on the left to get the 15% threshold. If they don't reach the threshold then they'll be locked out and it's looking quite unlikely John McDonnell will get his wish to have the level dropped to 5%. And even if they do just about reach the threshold, it's not difficult to see further splits within that faction between an outright purist and someone like Clive Lewis who's halfway in between but likes Trident and the military etc. So yeah, it is hugely important what happens after the election. 

[Mezhyp1]

https://www.tactical2017.com/

 

pick wisely  

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, arcade fireman said:

Like I said, I am sick of the left being spoken for by people with little critical thinking abilities. Learn how to analyse numbers quantitatively rather than the political allegiance of the person owning the business that compiles them and then come back to me. 

Problem is, I think the left have a lot of people with critical thinking abilities and those abilites led us to being sure, six weeks out, that a 2015 hung parliament was a shoe-in, that Remain was going to win a landslide and that Trump had no chance. And we've been constantly shocked at how wrong we got it.

We've just learned not to count our chickens.

1 hour ago, Abensie said:

e campaigning for is a competent centre-left candidate to take the Labour reigns immediately, or start a new party, not because there is any chance of winning this time but because they'll need 5 years to rebuild.

As i write this the Telegraph report the latest poll predict a 150 seat Tory majority.  People need to get real on Corbyn lead labour.  Now.

Why? What benefit does doing it now have compared to doing it in six weeks? If this new candidate has 266 weeks instead of 260 before the 2022 election, that'll make all the difference? I just don't see the point in giving up right now. We're probably screwed but may aswell fight it out.

(And yes, the polls for the referendum/2010 elections weren't as bad as they are now if you're looking at the potential for a Corbyn majority or even largest single party. What they are comparable too is seeing the Tories with a reduced or no majority. And while I wouldn't normally care so much, May has put this out there as a referendum on a hard Brexit. If she loses seats, it'll be very hard for her to go through with that.)

[arcade fireman]

7 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Problem is, I think the left have a lot of people with critical thinking abilities and those abilites led us to being sure, six weeks out, that a 2015 hung parliament was a shoe-in, that Remain was going to win a landslide and that Trump had no chance. And we've been constantly shocked at how wrong we got it.

We've just learned not to count our chickens.

We've been through this before. The margins here are far, far, far bigger than any of those examples. With the 2015 election 3% either side was what made the difference. Same with the EU referendum. With the American election the polls ended up predicting the final vote pretty accurately, just the electoral college distribution was off. 

None of those are even remotely comparable to the huge lead the Tories have currently. We're talking several magnitudes difference. That's not even mentioning the fact that all the errors so far have been underestimating the Tory vote.

[arcade fireman]

10 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

(And yes, the polls for the referendum/2010 elections weren't as bad as they are now if you're looking at the potential for a Corbyn majority or even largest single party. What they are comparable too is seeing the Tories with a reduced or no majority. And while I wouldn't normally care so much, May has put this out there as a referendum on a hard Brexit. If she loses seats, it'll be very hard for her to go through with that.)

Not even remotely comparable to that. 2015 the Tories had a 6% lead. If there's a uniform swing (which there probably won't be granted), we're still talking a 14% difference between current polling and things staying the same - let alone the Tories having a reduced majority. 

Best case scenario is Labour limit the Tories to 360 or so seats, but that would still be a significantly increased majority.

[waterfalls212434]

Its simple, your either with the tory party or against them.....if you want to back them and the policies they implement or plan to which hurt so many innocent people and victimise so many others then dont expect sympathy, dont expect understanding, and dont expect tolerance, this has gone on far far to long, there are to many people being hurt by these twats and there is far to much at stake in the future in the form of things like the nhs to worry about hurting the `feelings` of wannabe political scientists or tory sympathisers, I am not interested in `understanding their viewpoint` if they back the tories despite the last 2 terms c**tishness then their viewpoint must be fucking poison anyway so fuck em. Neither do I have any tolerance for those who spend all their time not bashing the tory party but bashing corbyn, bashing labour, bashing the greens, bashing the snp, bashing other assorted tory opponents and then have the gall to come out and claim they are opposed to the tory party in some way! 

I definitely don`t give to much of a care about `polls, leads, swings` and other assorted party politics bullshit what I care about is removing the tory party from the power in this country, by whatever means necessary. For the good of us all.

If the lib dems look like winning down here, I will vote lib dem, same for labour, same for greens. and I hope you all feel the same, you can bash people like corbyn all you like but you stand him next to may and tell me hes the worse option! of course he bloody isnt! and thats the choice like it or not! You dont like corbyn you say? well thats fine? but id hope you like may far far less and youll vote accordingly!  

Edited April 24, 2017 by waterfalls212434

[dimus]

[waterfalls212434]

https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/04/third-tory-advisor-quits-ahead-of-election/

3rd top tory advisor quits within a matter of days, indeed in many ways this just being one sign the tory election campaign has got off to a shambolic start.....now if this was labour and corbyn the media would be all over it! So why is that not the case with the tories? Anyone that still wants to tell me the bbc etc dont have a bias Ive got some magic beans I could sell you.......

[dentalplan]

Can never keep up with which way the Beeb is biased.

[Justiceforcedave]

6 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

 
You can bash people like corbyn all you like but you stand him next to may and tell me hes the worse option! of course he bloody isnt! and thats the choice like it or not! You dont like corbyn you say? well thats fine? but id hope you like may far far less and youll vote accordingly!  

This! Since when has politics ever been about picking your ACTUAL favourite? It's about picking the least shit isn't it?

On a side note some of the slinging in this thread is a shame. Perhaps name calling and insult flinging rather than engaging and discussing is half the problem we have in this country? Where's the Glasto peace and love?

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/04/third-tory-advisor-quits-ahead-of-election/

3rd top tory advisor quits within a matter of days, indeed in many ways this just being one sign the tory election campaign has got off to a shambolic start.....now if this was labour and corbyn the media would be all over it! So why is that not the case with the tories? Anyone that still wants to tell me the bbc etc dont have a bias Ive got some magic beans I could sell you.......

there's been low level reporting in the mainstream media of these tory quits, no different to the low level reporting of several quits from Corbyn's team this year.

Spot the difference? Me neither.

You're claiming a bias that the facts prove as not there.

Edited April 25, 2017 by eFestivals

[Ommadawn]

6 hours ago, dentalplan said:

Can never keep up with which way the Beeb is biased.

I guess they would say that makes them neutral

[Splonk]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

You're claiming a bias that the facts prove as not there.

Academics at the LSE would disagree with you.

London School of Economics report

"The results of this study show that Jeremy Corbyn was represented unfairly by the British press through a process of vilification that went well beyond the normal limits of fair debate and disagreement in a democracy."

 

[eFestivals]

 

Quote

Academics at the LSE would disagree with you.

London School of Economics report

"The results of this study show that Jeremy Corbyn was represented unfairly by the British press through a process of vilification that went well beyond the normal limits of fair debate and disagreement in a democracy."

1. that's from quite a while back now, and doesn't necessarily reflect what's going on today.

2. and anyway, I talked about a specific thing, where the quitters from the teams of both Corbyn and May have been reported at around the same levels in the main stream media.

That 2nd one is rather relevant, given I was specifically addressing a claim claiming the opposite.

PS: I believe it's the case that that report wasn't put together by 'academics' (in the normal sense) but instead by undergraduate degree students. That doesn't make it wrong of course, but a claim of 'academics' is over-stating things.

Edited April 25, 2017 by eFestivals

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

11 hours ago, Abensie said:

The funny thing is that all these angry people calling other fellow festival goers c**ts and such like, bought this upon the country themselves by supporting a luny left wing candidate to take over the party thinking that the country was suddenly going to wake up and think, "my god!  I should have realised i am a socialist/borderline communist years ago!  This charismatic labour chap has me converted!", rather than, "jesus flipping christ, who is this doddering, terrorist apologist, incompetent, unable to debate, economically illiterate fool and his side kick who waves around Mao's little red book in parliament!!"

I knew that Labour would collapse, everyone i know knew it.  The far left attempt at a coup was cloud cuckoo land from day one and it is still cloud cuckoo land.  

I will not stoop to calling those that registered and voted for Corbyn and destroyed the only thing preventing a Tory dictatorship c**ts, but i am suggesting that they are not the sharpest tools in the box.  Sometimes you need to do politics to try and stop the bad guys, not to be purist extremists.  I despair because it is too late.  Anyone on here who is deluded enough to think that there will be some sort of Christmas miracle at the polling booth are going to feel much like they did last June. 24 point leads do not lie. They are not 49/51 polls.  They are nailed on.  No amount of tactical voting is going to make a difference.

What anti-Tories should be campaigning for is a competent centre-left candidate to take the Labour reigns immediately, or start a new party, not because there is any chance of winning this time but because they'll need 5 years to rebuild.

As i write this the Telegraph report the latest poll predict a 150 seat Tory majority.  People need to get real on Corbyn lead labour.  Now.

Completely agree with this. Like it or not people need to accept that there is no overall appetite in this country for an extreme left party and leader, it's just never going to fly. We've unfortunately got to accept that when it comes to our government it will always be a question of the lesser of two evils. Any elected labour government will always be more Blair/Brown than Corbyn. There will be plenty of things you won't like about them, but at least they will be in power and will do some good.

Edited April 25, 2017 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

We've unfortunately got to accept that when it comes to our government it will always be a question of the lesser of two evils.

that's actually the case in all democratic countries everywhere. No person thinks every policy of a party is a good idea, and so the vote goes to the least objectionable rather than the most preferred.

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Like it or not people need to accept that there is no overall appetite in this country for an extreme left party and leader, it's just never going to fly.

Yup. We're a socially (little c) conservative country. If we weren't we might have managed a revolution, or land reform (the UK is the only 'old' country in the world not to have done it), or any of the other things that more radical societies might do.

And having realised that, a party needs to temper it's offer towards what the people of the country might buy into.

[Trout Mask Replica]

Shows how far to the right the political mood in the country has shifted when Corbyn and the current Labour policies are considered to be 'hard' or 'extreme' left. 

They don't go anywhere near far enough for an old anarcho-Marxist like me.