Which acts will "shut down" an area?

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, Porcelina said:

Charlie XCX will be so busy that I genuinely think that when the app/clashfinder drops they'll have to seriously consider switching her and Neil Young. It's going to be as busy as Avril, if not slightly worse.

 

DJO will probably cause a closure at the Woodsies - even if people weren't fussed about the Stranger Things thing, that track is absolutely huge on TikTok.

 

Lola Young obviously similar but probably not 'quite' as busy as DJO.

 

Gracie Abrams will be heaving if she's on the Other. Not quite Charlie but Billie Eilish 2019 levels.

 

Maribou State filled the WH in 2022 so with the 1975 effect and easy access to SE corner I'd expect that to feel the busiest of the main Friday headliners.

 

Then Noah Kahan would be my guess for the second busiest Pyramid set of the weekend behid Alanis.

 

 

The charli thing is never happening, some wild hyperbole happening here regarding her crowd.

 

really can’t see djo doing much damage at woodsies tbh

[fraybentos1]

Has charli sold out Victoria park yet? 

[Porcelina]

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

The charli thing is never happening, some wild hyperbole happening here regarding her crowd.

 

really can’t see djo doing much damage at woodsies tbh

I look forward to quoting this the week after the festival. People were complacent about Avril last year. The demographic of the festival hasn't changed that much, but the way people consume music has - it'll be the 'FOMO' act of the festival for the average group of 30 year olds. Her Coachella set also went down very well.

 

DJO's End of Beginning has nearly 1.5bn streams on Spotify now, as well as being one of the most used TikTok songs of the year. It'll be the busiest Woodsies has been since The Killers.

 

Looking back at some stages, I'd expect Paris Paloma to fill the Avalon and more oto.

Edited May 5, 2025 by Porcelina

[smogo]

12 minutes ago, Porcelina said:

Looking back at some stages, I'd expect Paris Paloma to fill the Avalon and more oto.

This is mad talk. You're suggesting that she'll get as big a crowd as the newly-reformed Sugababes did in 2022?

[clasher]

9 minutes ago, Porcelina said:

I look forward to quoting this the week after the festival. People were complacent about Avril last year. The demographic of the festival hasn't changed that much, but the way people consume music has - it'll be the 'FOMO' act of the festival for the average group of 30 year olds. Her Coachella set also went down very well.

 

Avril last year was in the afternoon against very little competition. Charli is on at headliner time against Neil Young, Doechii, Scissor Sisters, whoever will headline the park, with arcadia, the common, etc yet to come. She's not pulling half of the people on site (that aren't working) against that.

[Porcelina]

No, but the tent and perimiter area will be pretty full. I think she'll get the biggest crowd on the Avalon all weekend.

[Porcelina]

7 minutes ago, clasher said:

 

Avril last year was in the afternoon against very little competition. Charli is on at headliner time against Neil Young, Doechii, Scissor Sisters, whoever will headline the park, with arcadia, the common, etc yet to come. She's not pulling half of the people on site (that aren't working) against that.

 

Doechii will take a lot of the overspill for sure and probably fill the WH field. Other is what, 50,000 capacity, which means less than 1/3rd of ticket holders alone only need to be there for it to be filled. Saturday night slot is absolutely prime for her too. Just wait until the app comes out. The numbers will make it a serious conversation. I'll be at Deftones before because I love them, but I think that's the only way to guarantee being properly in the field. It's also a completely different fan base intentionally.

 

Neil Young will take a lot of the crowd who are 45+ but those also weren't the type of crowd heading to Avril anyway. It'll be half full.

 

Scissor Sisters will do okay but aren't going to take serious numbers, especially given it's not a full reunion. Their tour hasn't sold especially well. I loved their 2010 set but they're a pure nostalgia play.

Edited May 5, 2025 by Porcelina

[ehg]

Judging by the sugababes and avril examples, I feel like the key elements for overcrowding are:

 

1.) 90s act with cross-generational appeal

2.) Pop-adjacent but still “credible”

3.) Hasn’t played the UK for a while

4.) On a major stage but not the Pyramid

5.) Playing late afternoon / early evening, when everyone’s awake but there’s less competition from other acts

 

Looking at this year’s lineup I can’t really see anyone who fits all those criteria, which I guess might be deliberate on the part of the festival. En Vogue, perhaps? But then I’m not sure they’re well-known enough.

 

Instead, I think the SEC and Silver Hayes are going to be the big pinch points this year. The overcrowding in 2024 was bad enough, is only likely to get worse year on year as audience demographics continue to shift, and I get the impression that major layout / scheduling changes are being left for the fallow year. It really wouldn’t take much for the current situation to spill over into something pretty scary.

 

 

[clasher]

33 minutes ago, Porcelina said:

Doechii will take a lot of the overspill for sure and probably fill the WH field. Other is what, 50,000 capacity, which means less than 1/3rd of ticket holders alone only need to be there for it to be filled. Saturday night slot is absolutely prime for her too. Just wait until the app comes out. The numbers will make it a serious conversation. I'll be at Deftones before because I love them, but I think that's the only way to guarantee being properly in the field. It's also a completely different fan base intentionally.

 

Pyramid is 120.000, Other 50.000, WH 30.000, Park 20.000, Woodsies 12.000. Even if the other 4 big stages are only half full (and they have every chance to be), that's over 90.000 people. And then there's SH, Arcadia, SEC, Avalon. People working.

 

Other field will be full, but not dangerously so, and certainly not enough to warrant a switch to pyramid.

[nikkic]

I can’t think of a single Other stage headliner who has ever shut down the area. 

It just doesn’t happen. 
 

 

[Gnomicide]

I've got access to the premium Clashfinder where it gives an indication on how busy it will be, based on an act and how many people have clicked on them.

 

As far as I can tell, it's not an exact science. Especially at this stage as there is no definitive Clashfinder and people select all the acts they may want to see. Final decisions are yet to be made, there's only a certain type of festival goer that would be using Clashfinder etc. Basically there are a lot of contributing factors. 

 

But... there are currently 6 acts showing as red (busiest), Charli isn't one of them. 

Edited May 5, 2025 by Gnomicide

[Spindles]

I'd be curious to know which 6 they were. 

[Gnomicide]

7 minutes ago, Spindles said:

I'd be curious to know which 6 they were. 

 

I don't want to post them as it's info that's part of the paid for version so seems unfair on Halvin to share. You can get it by donating, though.

[Starburster]

8 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

 

I don't want to post them as it's info that's part of the paid for version so seems unfair on Halvin to share. You can get it by donating, though.

Kneecap surely number one

[CaledonianGonzo]

I reckon the Clashfinder demographic skews older so there's probably a bit of selection bias.

 

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, clasher said:

 

Pyramid is 120.000, Other 50.000, WH 30.000, Park 20.000, Woodsies 12.000. Even if the other 4 big stages are only half full (and they have every chance to be), that's over 90.000 people. And then there's SH, Arcadia, SEC, Avalon. People working.

 

Other field will be full, but not dangerously so, and certainly not enough to warrant a switch to pyramid.

We're also assuming the fields stay the same capacity. 

If they know it's going to be packed it's possible they take a chunk out of oxlyers to make the field bigger. Like they did with the pyramid and Row Mead for Paul McCartney. 

Edited May 5, 2025 by Leyrulion

[fraybentos1]

2 hours ago, Porcelina said:

I look forward to quoting this the week after the festival. People were complacent about Avril last year. The demographic of the festival hasn't changed that much, but the way people consume music has - it'll be the 'FOMO' act of the festival for the average group of 30 year olds. Her Coachella set also went down very well.

Not even comparable. Avril was a nostalgia act put on with little competition and turnover from the legend slot all heading there at once.

I ask again- has charli sold out Victoria park yet?

 

NY will get an okay crowd, SS on woodsies will be decent too and doecchi. It’s not gonna be close to a problem. Quote me after the fest, I don’t care. 
 

2 hours ago, Porcelina said:

DJO's End of Beginning has nearly 1.5bn streams on Spotify now, as well as being one of the most used TikTok songs of the year. It'll be the busiest Woodsies has been since The Killers.

No way it’s busier than say Kasabian last year. I can understand the charli thing a bit but the DJO stuff is mental. 1.5 billion streams due to tik tok popularity (a lot from USA) means not much. Won’t even pack the tent imo.

[westholtschic]

4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Not even comparable. Avril was a nostalgia act put on with little competition and turnover from the legend slot all heading there at once.

I ask again- has charli sold out Victoria park yet?

 

NY will get an okay crowd, SS on woodsies will be decent too and doecchi. It’s not gonna be close to a problem. Quote me after the fest, I don’t care. 
 

No way it’s busier than say Kasabian last year. I can understand the charli thing a bit but the DJO stuff is mental. 1.5 billion streams due to tik tok popularity (a lot from USA) means not much. Won’t even pack the tent imo.

 

[fraybentos1]

If the fest thought charli was that big they’d have got her headlining pyramid. Has anyone considered that? 
 

as if they’d have needed a second invitation to get a British female headlining when they’ve made a big push for that to the extent of having SZA doing it to a crowd of 500 people.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, westholtschic said:

 

At last! Nah I’m kidding. But if she was as popular as people are saying they’d have gone in 10 mins. 
 

Lana del rey sold out hampden etc in a day! She did other stage just fine 

[fraybentos1]

Just looked and Lana del rey is doing 2 nights at Wembley and has bascially shifted those tix. By the chari logic I would have perished at the other stage in 2023 due to her overwhelming popularity. In reality it was just a normal crowd.

[FKA SOSOTWS]

1 hour ago, Starburster said:

Kneecap surely number one

 

Not even in the top 10 on this one: https://clashfinder.com/s/glasto25prediction

[Gnomicide]

19 minutes ago, FKA SOSOTWS said:

 

Not even in the top 10 on this one: https://clashfinder.com/s/glasto25prediction

 

Charli not red on that one either, actually lower % of selections.

[Ben7amin_]

56 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Just looked and Lana del rey is doing 2 nights at Wembley and has bascially shifted those tix. By the chari logic I would have perished at the other stage in 2023 due to her overwhelming popularity. In reality it was just a normal crowd.

 

Lanas crowd was big at her due start time.. but she ended up playing to about 60% of it .

 

Shame she f**ked it so badly - she would have been a Pyramid headliner if she got another chance that us unlikely.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Gnomicide said:

 

Charli not red on that one either, actually lower % of selections.

does it give data on the numbers that have filled it in ? must be fairly low at this stage .... kneecap I think will get a significant bounce thats not yet showing on there