news & politics:discussion

[lazyred]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

the linked energy price has helped drive investment in renewables.

The recent off shore wind power auction had no bids because the price was set too low. I can't see the price falling anytime soon.

[lazyred]

Looks like a peaceful march against anti semitism today. The police didn't have to ask people not to be racist or chant pro terrorist slogans. The organisers worked with police so the extremist who tried to hijack the event was arrested. As expected the usually vocal anti racist liberal left was mostly silent about it all.

[mattiloy]

3 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

But until this stops being wishful literature written by day dreaming Greenpeace types who need a good bath and a proper job, we will need to stick to the reality that we still need reliable 24 / 7 energy supply that so far has only come from coal or nuclear.

Except that it doesnt. Nuclear still comes with scheduled refuelling outages and occasional unplanned outages usually due to technical/safety issues.

Here some data on unplanned outages in the US by year to 2018.

There is nothing ’wishful’ about the literature- its pretty simple stuff- the problem of irregular generation from renewables is solveable with existing technologies. It basically just requires greater coverage and variety in both type and geography and a great leap forward in improving efficiencies in terms of consumption and in the infrastructure- the national grid and electricity storage (batteries).

Nuclear wasnt on the agenda as a solution to climate change for most western countries until very recently. Then Ukraine happened and now we’re here. And it’s nothing to do with solving the oil price shock. These things take decades to build and the oil shock from Ukraine is already over. It’s because China controls something like 70% of the world’s trade in rare earths and the US doesn’t like China and tells the rest of the west to forget about renewables- nuclear is back baby 

[steviewevie]

25 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Except that it doesnt. Nuclear still comes with scheduled refuelling outages and occasional unplanned outages usually due to technical/safety issues.

Here some data on unplanned outages in the US by year to 2018.

There is nothing ’wishful’ about the literature- its pretty simple stuff- the problem of irregular generation from renewables is solveable with existing technologies. It basically just requires greater coverage and variety in both type and geography and a great leap forward in improving efficiencies in terms of consumption and in the infrastructure- the national grid and electricity storage (batteries).

Nuclear wasnt on the agenda as a solution to climate change for most western countries until very recently. Then Ukraine happened and now we’re here. And it’s nothing to do with solving the oil price shock. These things take decades to build and the oil shock from Ukraine is already over. It’s because China controls something like 70% of the world’s trade in rare earths and the US doesn’t like China and tells the rest of the west to forget about renewables- nuclear is back baby 

China is investing in nuclear also.

[Guest]

Classic Sunak.

[Ommadawn]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Classic Sunak.

Classic Ozanne

[cellar]

5 hours ago, mattiloy said:

Except that it doesnt. Nuclear still comes with scheduled refuelling outages and occasional unplanned outages usually due to technical/safety issues.

Here some data on unplanned outages in the US by year to 2018.

There is nothing ’wishful’ about the literature- its pretty simple stuff- the problem of irregular generation from renewables is solveable with existing technologies. It basically just requires greater coverage and variety in both type and geography and a great leap forward in improving efficiencies in terms of consumption and in the infrastructure- the national grid and electricity storage (batteries).

Nuclear wasnt on the agenda as a solution to climate change for most western countries until very recently. Then Ukraine happened and now we’re here. And it’s nothing to do with solving the oil price shock. These things take decades to build and the oil shock from Ukraine is already over. It’s because China controls something like 70% of the world’s trade in rare earths and the US doesn’t like China and tells the rest of the west to forget about renewables- nuclear is back baby 

The biggest problem with trying to address global warming is not an individual forgetting to recycle; its not a meat eater refusing to be vegetarian; its not even a Kardashian choosing to take a 15 minute private jet flight.

It's the fact that every single investment portfolio worth its salt is invested in fossil fuel companies. Because they always produce returns. Because even when there is a war that causes a lack of fuel supply that increases prices to the end user, the big energy company are still making record profits. As long as people keep pumping money into it, why would they ever stop?

There is something fundamentally wrong with this, of course, and everyone knows it on the surface. But to make a change would require a concerted effort of all invested parties to take their money out of these companies as a form of protest. And in fact, most of that money is being invested on a discretionary basis, and so would have to be agreed with each persons investment manager. That's so much effort, and even if you could get people to agree in principle, could you get them to agree in practice?

And when it gets down to it people want to protect their money. Its not just the super rich that invest, there's a massive middle class that invests their money and rely on that investment - if Green investment is giving you 1-2% and BP is giving you 10-15%, it's very easy for someone to say "Well this 100k I've saved up for my family/pension would be better invested in BP, even if that is a pretty sh*t company." (And its very easy for someone not invested to take a moral high ground. Transparency note: I have £0 of investment)


The status quo needs to be challenged, but nothing that anyone is doing is challenging it.

[cellar]

1 minute ago, cellar said:

And when it gets down to it people want to protect their money. Its not just the super rich that invest, there's a massive middle class that invests their money and rely on that investment - if Green investment is giving you 1-2% and BP is giving you 10-15%, it's very easy for someone to say "Well this 100k I've saved up for my family/pension would be better invested in BP, even if that is a pretty sh*t company." 

An addition to this - a lot of pension funds are heavily invested into these companies.

[Guest]

Here is Sunak lying again. Public services will be cut further so he can NI. 

[lost]

It’s the interest on the debt from covid/lockdowns that  they are worried about. I read an article that suggested 15% of the entire tax take is going on losses from the boe’s QE during covid.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, lost said:

It’s the interest on the debt from covid/lockdowns that  they are worried about. I read an article that suggested 15% of the entire tax take is going on losses from the boe’s QE during covid.

so cut taxes?

[steviewevie]

Another one of those COP things this week, this time in that beacon of low carbon tech and green and progressive policies, Dubai. Sunak will be there with his yeah net zero whatever speech, and the King who will say ignore that guy he'll be gone soon it's all about this guy, and then Starmer who will shout we are net zero (as long as meets are fiscal rules).

It's all about phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels. Arab states and China want to phase down, G7 want phase out...although not sure about GB.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

finger's crossed that Israel-Hamas ceasefire can be extended.

[cellar]

3 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Are any services actually being cut outside of @Ozanne imagination?  

I was looking at graphs about the overall tax take and its still hugely inflated even after these NI cuts so there isn't really any need to cut budgets and I haven't heard of a budget cut accountant.  Or did I miss something?

The "cuts" are in real terms relative to rising inflation and a lack of action specifically to target services. In fact you're right - receipts are forecast to be much higher than expected, and so this OBR forecast shows lower borrowing as a % of GDP than back in March, if no policy changes were announced. Hunt has chosen to spend this extra money rather than save it though - primarily on NI cuts (£10.4bn) and full expensing (£9.1bn).

After a full read, the Autumn forecast was absolutely a much more positive picture than March, helped in no small part by ONS revisions. RHDI (the best measure of living standards) is now only forecast to drop by 3.5%, rather than the 7% predicted in the March statement.

So yes, things are still pretty sh*t - but nowhere as sh*t as they were (unless you actually want people to have worae living standards). Ozanne is just regurgitating soundbites for the most part.

[steviewevie]

apparently there's a new pig flu that is going to properly wipe us out.

[squirrelarmy]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

apparently there's a new pig flu that is going to properly wipe us out.

Is this the new Chinese pneumonia epidemic? 

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Is this the new Chinese pneumonia epidemic? 

don't think so. Some bloke in Yorkshire has got it. So...might be nothing....or might be armageddon.

I think we should lock down just in case.

[Neil]

10 hours ago, cellar said:

The biggest problem with trying to address global warming is not an individual forgetting to recycle; its not a meat eater refusing to be vegetarian; its not even a Kardashian choosing to take a 15 minute private jet flight.

It's the fact that every single investment portfolio worth its salt is invested in fossil fuel companies. Because they always produce returns. Because even when there is a war that causes a lack of fuel supply that increases prices to the end user, the big energy company are still making record profits. As long as people keep pumping money into it, why would they ever stop?

There is something fundamentally wrong with this, of course, and everyone knows it on the surface. But to make a change would require a concerted effort of all invested parties to take their money out of these companies as a form of protest. And in fact, most of that money is being invested on a discretionary basis, and so would have to be agreed with each persons investment manager. That's so much effort, and even if you could get people to agree in principle, could you get them to agree in practice?

And when it gets down to it people want to protect their money. Its not just the super rich that invest, there's a massive middle class that invests their money and rely on that investment - if Green investment is giving you 1-2% and BP is giving you 10-15%, it's very easy for someone to say "Well this 100k I've saved up for my family/pension would be better invested in BP, even if that is a pretty sh*t company." (And its very easy for someone not invested to take a moral high ground. Transparency note: I have £0 of investment)


The status quo needs to be challenged, but nothing that anyone is doing is challenging it.

thats everyone's pensions, if they don't get a return they'll buy houses.

 

 

[squirrelarmy]

29 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

don't think so. Some bloke in Yorkshire has got it. So...might be nothing....or might be armageddon.

I think we should lock down just in case.

It’s normally the Lancastrians messing with pigs. They must be doing something weird with them to end up with curly sausages. 

[Skip997]

10 hours ago, cellar said:

The biggest problem with trying to address global warming is not an individual forgetting to recycle; its not a meat eater refusing to be vegetarian; its not even a Kardashian choosing to take a 15 minute private jet flight.

It's the fact that every single investment portfolio worth its salt is invested in fossil fuel companies.

Brilliant post.

There's so much more beyond this, stuff that's not even mentioned because it would affect business/profits.

[pryce]

Cameron returns, someone gets pig flu ........coincidence? 

[steviewevie]

Andrew Bailey says we're f**ked.

[steviewevie]

maybe it's a new tactic to drive down inflation.

[steviewevie]

Andy Burnham telling London to f**koff in the covid inquiry.