When will this shit end?

[HalfAnIdiot]

32 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

There's been a fair bit of chat about exponential growth. I'm not saying anyone does or does not understand it, but I will say it's difficult to intuitively get your head around. I was pretty sure I did understand it, then I watched this video and realised I didn't quite - at least, whilst I may have intellectually, I didn't instinctively.  See if you do any better than me at predicting how each step increases.

 

Now, I know we're not looking at unbounded growth, as the experiences in Bolton and potentially the rest of Manchester are showing, so it doesn't hold. But hopefully it explains why I've tended to be much more interested in growth rates than the absolute numbers at any one time, since numbers can very quickly jump from reasonably low to huge in quite a short period of time, in a way that's just not intuitive.

Besides, this channel's "Good and bad CGI" videos are great!

BTW, I've not actually watched the video since it came out, so some of the stuff specifically around COVID rather than just visualising exponential growth may have dated.

Thanks, great vid. Should be shown widely. 

[zahidf]

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

"Pledging more mass events" actually sounds like an acceptable compromise...

Perhaps to the levels already shown as safe from the pilot events (with testing)?

[Crazyfool01]

17 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/13/unlock-let-us-live-covid-boris-johnson-urged-advisor-eve-crucial/

Prof Dingwall says open up and stop being nancy pants...

 

“I have been saying for 10 days now the only thing that would persuade me [not to lift restrictions] is a significant increase in intensive care admissions, and that is not happening.”

Whys your font keep changing size ? 

[Chapple12345]

6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

"Pledging more mass events" actually sounds like an acceptable compromise...

Perhaps to the levels already shown as safe from the pilot events (with testing)?

That's my thinking, could it be vaccination proof/tests for the time being and then from the new date it's up to the individual venue of what to do? 

[jparx]

6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

"Pledging more mass events" actually sounds like an acceptable compromise...

Perhaps to the levels already shown as safe from the pilot events (with testing)?

Can see them ramping up Wembley to 50% (if not more) capacity as a pilot in the meantime.

I guess the main issue will be keeping limits on households gathering indoors in larger groups.

[BobWillis2]

Are we expecting any major leaks tonight? 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Can see them ramping up Wembley to 50% (if not more) capacity as a pilot in the meantime.

I guess the main issue will be keeping limits on households gathering indoors in larger groups.

Outdoor vs indoor is always a political choice. One is clearly more dangerous than the other, but their double vaccinated supporters are terrified of people gathering 

[jparx]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

Outdoor vs indoor is always a political choice. One is clearly more dangerous than the other, but their double vaccinated supporters are terrified of people gathering 

Indeed. My grandparents aren’t Tories necessarily, but they’re in the camp of being against mass gatherings when it’s clear outdoor events are much less of an issue than loads of people meetings up together indoors

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Indeed. My grandparents aren’t Tories necessarily, but they’re in the camp of being against mass gatherings when it’s clear outdoor events are much less of an issue than loads of people meetings up together indoors

For me if everyone is tested as per the pilot events (at least to the capacity levels of those events) there's no reason whatsoever to stop them happening beyond appeasing the opinion polls. When there's no chance they'll lose power any time soon.

At least give the industry some help and certainty to push in the right direction 

[Ozanne]

I wonder how the backbench Tory MPs will take it.

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

For me if everyone is tested as per the pilot events (at least to the capacity levels of those events) there's no reason whatsoever to stop them happening beyond appeasing the opinion polls. When there's no chance they'll lose power any time soon.

At least give the industry some help and certainty to push in the right direction 

Agreed!

[shoptildrop]

18 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

Are we expecting any major leaks tonight? 

 

[Ryan1984]

11 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

For me if everyone is tested as per the pilot events (at least to the capacity levels of those events) there's no reason whatsoever to stop them happening beyond appeasing the opinion polls. When there's no chance they'll lose power any time soon.

At least give the industry some help and certainty to push in the right direction 

If the pilot events work and are safe - which so far seems to be the case - then their findings and results need to be put into practice. What was the point of them if not?

[BobWillis2]

2 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

 

I was hoping something might get leaked that we haven’t heard yet. Seems they’re keeping their cards close to their chest for once. 

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

If the pilot events work and are safe - which so far seems to be the case - then their findings and results need to be put into practice. What was the point of them if not?

Apparently because the public wouldn't understand a nuanced approach to lifting any restrictions

[Havors]

32 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

"Pledging more mass events" actually sounds like an acceptable compromise...

Perhaps to the levels already shown as safe from the pilot events (with testing)?

Will make the download pilot results massively important 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

I was hoping something might get leaked that we haven’t heard yet. Seems they’re keeping their cards close to their chest for once. 

Her source is boris. So we can expect what she says to be what happens. 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Havors said:

Will make the download pilot results massively important 

There's a trap set there with the self reporting lateral flow tests plus a PCR 

[jparx]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Her source is boris. So we can expect what she says to be what happens. 

I wish she’d drop the “govt sources” act. She’s kidding no one at this point 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

There's a trap set there with the self reporting lateral flow tests plus a PCR 

Huh? A trap set? 

[BobWillis2]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

Her source is boris. So we can expect what she says to be what happens. 

It’s the “caveats or exceptions” I was hoping would get leaked. Doesn’t seem like she’s been given the brief to leak those. 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

Huh? A trap set? 

Gig goers self reporting - who's going to actually self report a positive test in real life when they can go to their first, maybe only, event in 2 years? 

But there's a PCR test requirement too- if that shows that festival goers could be dishonest it could derail any chances and make it vaccine proof only, which with timeframes makes 2021 festivals a problem with a majority younger audience 

I believe the events are for 2022 certainty, which is no bad thing but isn't how its being inferred 

Edited June 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Havors]

Just now, BobWillis2 said:

It’s the “caveats or exceptions” I was hoping would get leaked. Doesn’t seem like she’s been given the brief to leak those. 

They have buttered us up on the 4 weeks for ages now. I just want common sense that the data will be reviewed daily and not just wait for 4 weeks no matter what. 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Havors said:

They have buttered us up on the 4 weeks for ages now. I just want common sense that the data will be reviewed daily and not just wait for 4 weeks no matter what. 

I agree - if its 4 weeks it'll be longer. There's no way things will look better than now in 4 weeks time