When will this shit end?

[DeanoL]

11 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Are they?

Do you have a link to % of beds occupied at hospitals at the moment? 

The gov dashboard shows the total number of covid patients but not as a % of total hospital capacity (as far as i can see anyway)

 

Sure, the daily figures are here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/uec-sitrep/urgent-and-emergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/

It's around 85-90% which is better than it has been, but still put it at a scarily high level. And as the site notes, this is after the hospitals have been reworked and rearranged to allow for more COVID treatment and less of everything else.

If we were actually to force hospitals to go back to how they were in 2019 and return to doing all the other treatments they would have done then, we would be above capacity at this point.

The good news is those figures are going to come down, the bad news is people are hospitalised with COVID for months at a time so there's going to be some lag. 

It's interesting that people are basically declaring it over today, and restrictions are lifted three months from now - which is when you would expect the last patients admitted today to be released.

[DeanoL]

The Spectator have graphed some of that data too: https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/nhs

[efcfanwirral]

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.leeds-live.co.uk/best-in-leeds/gigs-clubs/health-passports-covid-teams-among-19946836.amp

Only just seen this- big question is what happens with those who have had one dose only by then, a position many of their attendees are likely to be in? I doubt there will be enough online doctors appointments for the tests for all of them within that 24-36 hour period 

I really think younger people are going to be unofficially squeezed out of the July and August festivals as they won't have had the second injection and the logistics described here around the tests will not work in the numbers they need for the amount of festivals there will be

Maybe the whole idea of them even happening before everyone has been offered both vaccines is a bit of a fantasy 

Edited March 4, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.leeds-live.co.uk/best-in-leeds/gigs-clubs/health-passports-covid-teams-among-19946836.amp

Only just seen this- big question is what happens with those who have had one dose only by then, a position many of their attendees are likely to be in? I doubt there will be enough online doctors appointments for the tests for all of them within that 24-36 hour period 

I really think younger people are going to be unofficially squeezed out of the July and August festivals as they won't have had the second injection and the logistics described here around the tests will not work in the numbers they need for the amount of festivals there will be

Nothing in there about needing two vaccine doses? Could allow just the one dose

[Fuzzy Afro]

33 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Another vaccine

 

More jabs than a Joshua fight 

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.leeds-live.co.uk/best-in-leeds/gigs-clubs/health-passports-covid-teams-among-19946836.amp

Only just seen this- big question is what happens with those who have had one dose only by then, a position many of their attendees are likely to be in? I doubt there will be enough online doctors appointments for the tests for all of them within that 24-36 hour period 

I really think younger people are going to be unofficially squeezed out of the July and August festivals as they won't have had the second injection and the logistics described here around the tests will not work in the numbers they need for the amount of festivals there will be

Not a chance. Festival attendances are very very highly skewed to younger people. If they’re going to go ahead at all they’ll move to a one dose only requirement and with an option of a negative LFT if you haven’t been vaccinated. 

[stuartbert two hats]

It turns out that all these double dose vaccines are just as good with one dose as the FDA approved J&J vaccine.  At least in the medium term.

[efcfanwirral]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Nothing in there about needing two vaccine doses? Could allow just the one dose

 

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

More jabs than a Joshua fight 

Not a chance. Festival attendances are very very highly skewed to younger people. If they’re going to go ahead at all they’ll move to a one dose only requirement and with an option of a negative LFT if you haven’t been vaccinated. 

I really hope you're both right- I just think if they want people to go ahead and get that second then they can't be encouraging that it's essentially OK for them not to. If you can attend an event with one, it feels like you don't really need two 

Though this could be pre empting a  policy change where we only get the one anyway under a certain age, maybe with a variant booster in future (three does seem like overkill for under 40s)

[efcfanwirral]

You'd think with something so important, one of the first relaxations, that this information may have been forthcoming earlier...

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

I really hope you're both right- I just think if they want people to go ahead and get that second then they can't be encouraging that it's essentially OK for them not to. If you can attend an event with one, it feels like you don't really need two 

Though this could be pre empting a  policy change where we only get the one anyway under a certain age, maybe with a variant booster in future (three does seem like overkill for under 40s)

We will have a lot more info on vaccine efficency in the next month. It wouldnt surprise me if thats the case

[Mellotr0n]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

I really hope you're both right- I just think if they want people to go ahead and get that second then they can't be encouraging that it's essentially OK for them not to. If you can attend an event with one, it feels like you don't really need two 

Though this could be pre empting a  policy change where we only get the one anyway under a certain age, maybe with a variant booster in future (three does seem like overkill for under 40s)

I think people are also forgetting that cases/hosps/deaths should hopefully be at a consistently very low level by mid-summer. In that context, lots of young people going to a music festival won't be judged in the same way as it would be if being held in March, or April.

[efcfanwirral]

6 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

I think people are also forgetting that cases/hosps/deaths should hopefully be at a consistently very low level by mid-summer. In that context, lots of young people going to a music festival won't be judged in the same way as it would be if being held in March, or April.

It's not about the judgement, more that insurance companies (public liability) and maybe even government rules on gatherings are likely to include some rules on stopping spread however illogical is sounds after everyone has had at least one dose. If it changes to a one dose policy that's taken away as that's done before 21st June (probably)

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

It's not about the judgement, more that insurance companies (public liability) and maybe even government rules on gatherings are likely to include some rules on stopping spread however illogical is sounds after everyone has had at least one dose. If it changes to a one dose policy that's taken away as that's done before 21st June (probably)

Current road map says ALL restrictions gone by June. That might change obviously though

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Current road map says ALL restrictions gone by June. That might change obviously though

Yeah but reading and Leeds are saying you'll need vaccine proof or a negative test. The idea must be that vaccine passports aren't a restriction, they're just normal 

Edited March 4, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Food for thought...

 

Removing all restrictions on Monday would lead to an increase in cases which would put the IFR above 0.2% because not all those who are most at risk from death or hospitalisation have been vaccinated yet, and a large proportion of those who have been vaccinated won't yet have full protection from death or hospitalisation.

54 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Are they?

Do you have a link to % of beds occupied at hospitals at the moment? 

The gov dashboard shows the total number of covid patients but not as a % of total hospital capacity (as far as i can see anyway)

 

Lots of people showing you the stats here but also remember hospital capacity has been massively increased. 

[Mellotr0n]

16 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

It's not about the judgement, more that insurance companies (public liability) and maybe even government rules on gatherings are likely to include some rules on stopping spread however illogical is sounds after everyone has had at least one dose. If it changes to a one dose policy that's taken away as that's done before 21st June (probably)

Insurance fair enough, but I think the government rules may well have changed to reflect the massively improved situation. But also yes, I could see one dose being approved/enough for under 50s, or under 40s or something.

[Fuzzy Afro]

28 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

I really hope you're both right- I just think if they want people to go ahead and get that second then they can't be encouraging that it's essentially OK for them not to. If you can attend an event with one, it feels like you don't really need two 

Though this could be pre empting a  policy change where we only get the one anyway under a certain age, maybe with a variant booster in future (three does seem like overkill for under 40s)

The correct policy would be that to have a valid vaccine passport, you need two doses OR one in the last three months (or a single J&J vaccine, or a negative LFT in the last 3 days) 

[Leyrulion]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I regards to Hospitals - its pretty clear at the moment they are still under pressure but come end of March they surely will be very much back to normal ?

I think its entirely sensible to get to the end of March and then take stock of where we are and if we can go faster on unlocking.

I assume that's their plan but they just want to be careful about jumping out of the plane before it's fully landed.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The correct policy would be that to have a valid vaccine passport, you need two doses OR one in the last three months (or a single J&J vaccine, or a negative LFT in the last 3 days) 

and an expiry date for the passport ... that would help those passport sceptics ....

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Removing all restrictions on Monday would lead to an increase in cases which would put the IFR above 0.2% because not all those who are most at risk from death or hospitalisation have been vaccinated yet, and a large proportion of those who have been vaccinated won't yet have full protection from death or hospitalisation.

I don't think that chap was talking about ending all restrictions (says this in 2nd tweet)

Purely stating that we needn't continue to be in lockdown as of 8th March. Presumably effectively saying things she be brought forward.

[zahidf]

 

[DeanoL]

26 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

They won't ask for this in reality unless its mandated by government I would presume.

Or if they need to do it to sell tickets - looks like they're close to selling out though so I don't think it'll be necessary in this case.

[DareToDibble]

I've just had the letter through inviting me for the vaccine. I'm 33 so shouldn't be getting it yet? Grandparents aside, nobody I know has had it yet. My parents are 61 and 57, nothing. 

Feel bad for taking it before more vulnerable people but I'll 100% be taking it!

[stuartbert two hats]

34 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Removing all restrictions on Monday would lead to an increase in cases which would put the IFR above 0.2% because not all those who are most at risk from death or hospitalisation have been vaccinated yet, and a large proportion of those who have been vaccinated won't yet have full protection from death or hospitalisation.

Lots of people showing you the stats here but also remember hospital capacity has been massively increased. 

The capacity has been increased at the cost of capacity in other areas though.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

I've just had the letter through inviting me for the vaccine. I'm 33 so shouldn't be getting it yet? Grandparents aside, nobody I know has had it yet. My parents are 61 and 57, nothing. 

Feel bad for taking it before more vulnerable people but I'll 100% be taking it!

Your 61 year old parentcan book their jab through the NHS website without waiting for the GP

 

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

[Leyrulion]

36 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I don't think that chap was talking about ending all restrictions (says this in 2nd tweet)

Purely stating that we needn't continue to be in lockdown as of 8th March. Presumably effectively saying things she be brought forward.

Yeah again, let's not leave the plane before it's touched the ground. After the first set of data from the 8th and 29th March readings come through then it's time to talk about bringing things forward but from the 12th April.

We've learnt about rushing things.

8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The capacity has been increased at the cost of capacity in other areas though.

I'm not suggesting they haven't. Sorry if I'm over reading but are you suggesting that the reduction in capacity elsewhere has led to more deaths then would have happened  compared to if those services had been run "normally"? So running services relatively or more normally would have saved more lives than accepting worse outcomes in those patients but better outcomes in Corona patients? 

I've no data backing this point but I had thought that more lives have been saved by the necessary reallocation of hospital resources then if they hadn't. Long term it's an unknowable calculation but in any emergency situation you deal with the acute deaths first.