When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

A blip?

 

[steviewevie]

Whitty has been making a speech...(copy and paste got a bit messed up)

Summary of Chris Whitty's speech to NHS Confederation

Here are the main points from Prof Chris Whitty’s speech to the NHS Confederation.

• Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, said he expected a further Covid surge in the autumn or winter. He said:

In terms of the medium term, my expectation is that we will get a further winter surge, late autumn/winter surge. That is because we know that winter and autumn favour respiratory viruses, and therefore it would be very surprising if this highly transmissible- respiratory virus was not also favoured.

So therefore we’ll get the current wave, an exit wave, and then I do think most people think that there will be further problems over the winter.

How big they’ll be I think is uncertain, and that partly depends on do we get new variants which evade vaccines better, and partly depends on how the current wave passes through the UK.

• He said he expected next winter to be challenging for the NHS. That was because it would probably be dealing with Covid and flu. Last winter there was little flu, he said. But he said unless the Covid situation got so bad that people started reducing their contacts, flu would come back. He went on:

So either we will have a very significant Covid surge, people will minimise their contacts and we will have less respiratory viruses or people will get back to a more normal life, there will be some Covid but on top of that we will go back to having a flu surge, an RSV surge in children and so on.

So I think we need to be aware and braced for the fact that the coming winter may well be quite a difficult one, not probably on the scale of the last one ... which was really the worst I think any of us can remember, but still quite a significant one. We as the NHS have to brace ourselves for that.

• He said that currently a Covid surge was underway and that cases would continue to rise for the next few weeks. He said this would lead to further hospitalisations and deaths. But he said it was not clear how big the surge would be.

• He said that after five years he thought vaccines would be available that could “hold the line” against a range of variants. He said:

In terms of the medium to longer term, if I look five years out, I would expect us to have polyvalent vaccines which will hold the line to a very large degree against even new variants as they come in, and an ability to respond with vaccination to new variants.

• But he said until then new vaccination programmes might be needed. He said:
•  

But the period over the next two or three years, I think new variants may will lead to us having to re-vaccinate or consider at least boosting vaccination as they come through.

We have to just be aware that Covid has not thrown its last surprise at us and there will be there will be several more over the next period.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

A blip?

 

Concerning. Its crazy how it held at approx 7k for about a week and now last two days its jumped up... 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Havors

[hodgey123]

Some really ugly numbers today.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

Concerning. Its crazy how it held at approx 7k for about a week and now last two days its jumped up... 

maybe a mess up in how collecting the data?

[BagpussSeesAllThings]

FFS, I convinced myself it was going to drop today.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Some really ugly numbers today.

Those pesky kids! 

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

maybe a mess up in how collecting the data?

I was thinking about it yesterday and noticed differences between the cases by specimen date and cases by reporting date. 

So yeah possibly...?? i.e. these extra cases reported yesterday and today are from specimens from the previous few days? 

Would explain why we were stuck at 7k ish for quite a few days? Just a guess like. 

Edit: For example; 9th June was 8k cases and 12th June was 6k drop of 2k which is quite a drop. Could be just catching up? 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Havors

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

Those pesky kids! 

back at school/college...

[MrBarry465]

6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A blip?

 

@zahidf looks like the modelling was spot on. Yesterday you were chomping at the bit as cases were not rising quickly/

This highlights why you don't make silly comments like that and wait till the data is in.

The right decision has been made and thats that.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Havors said:

I was thinking about it yesterday and noticed differences between the cases by specimen date and cases by reporting date. 

So yeah possibly...?? i.e. these extra cases reported yesterday and today are from specimens from the previous few days? 

Would explain why we were stuck at 7k ish for quite a few days? Just a guess like. 

yeah...anyway...as always need to look at weekly average as daily numbers can jump about.

[Guest]

11k cases isn’t good, hopefully the vaccines continue to do their stuff and hospitals admissions keep low. 

[st dan]

I just have no idea how the number of daily positive cases can be brought down now, with the minimal restrictions we actually have in place. 
In the past there have been increases in the restriction levels when it’s been rising (like it clearly is now), however we seem to be opening up slightly more and more e.g. increased audiences at sporting events, larger numbers at weddings etc. 

[Chapple12345]

9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A blip?

 

Hate to be that guy but we did 1.1 million tests yesterday too so that could also be a factor 

[JoeyT]

Just now, MrBarry465 said:

@zahidf looks like the modelling was spot on. Yesterday you were chomping at the bit as cases were not rising quickly/

This highlights why you don't make silly comments like that and wait till the data is in.

The right decision has been made and thats that.

Going large on 1 day's figures?

This time tomorrow it could be you who's made the silly comment could it not? Probably best to wait for a couple of days data before throwing haymakers buddy!

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Are we not in the third wave already? 

aren't we kind of at the start of the third wave...although uncertain how steep/high/wide it's going to be.

[steviewevie]

Maybe a bit silly point scoring with all this...no one knows for sure where it's going to go...

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

@zahidf looks like the modelling was spot on. Yesterday you were chomping at the bit as cases were not rising quickly/

This highlights why you don't make silly comments like that and wait till the data is in.

The right decision has been made and thats that.

You are making an ironically premature call yourself...  

I wouldnt jump to either conclusion yet. I would wait for a few more days to see what happens. 

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

I just have no idea how the number of daily positive cases can be brought down now, with the minimal restrictions we actually have in place. 
In the past there have been increases in the restriction levels when it’s been rising (like it clearly is now), however we seem to be opening up slightly more and more e.g. increased audiences at sporting events, larger numbers at weddings etc. 

Guess the answer is vaccination. As more and more get single doses (less of an impact) and second doses (more of an impact), transmission will hopefully decrease as the virus hits a larger wall of people that have some degree of immunity and will not then transmit it onwards.

[Guest]

It’s only because Zahidf was mocking SAGE yesterday as their models showed we would hit 15k cases by 21st June. It’s possible we might hit that but also possible we won’t, that’s why it’s silly to mock either way. 

Edited June 17, 2021 by Ozanne

[balthazarstarbuck]

13 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A blip?

 

Well that’s suboptimal. 

Only one day though, and still possible to be a blip as you say.

Tomorrows will be very interesting.

[steviewevie]

Africa needs vaccines.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/who-official-urges-faster-supply-of-covid-vaccines-to-africa-as-cases-surge

[st dan]

2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Guess the answer is vaccination. As more and more get single doses (less of an impact) and second doses (more of an impact), transmission will hopefully decrease as the virus hits a larger wall of people that have some degree of immunity and will not then transmit it onwards.

I guess, but I was assuming that at 42.2m single dosed adults right now, we’d be seeing a slower spread than we are now. Although the current rise in cases does seem largely to be in the younger unvaccinated populations at present. 

Edited June 17, 2021 by st dan

[MrBarry465]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

You are making an ironically premature call yourself...  

I wouldnt jump to either conclusion yet. I would wait for a few more days to see what happens. 

I got downvoted to hell for saying the 21st of June was still 5 days away - in response to people saying the modelling was wrong. As it does look like we will be at that figure if not more by next week.

Seems like it's one rule for some and another for others in here.

Edited June 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I got downvoted to hell for saying the 21st of June was still 5 days away - in response to people saying the modelling was wrong. As it does look like we will be at that figure if not more by next week.

Seems like it's one rule for some and another for others in here.

It's cliquey...