When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

My PHE friend says he's seen a draft copy of roadmap, but it's still being worked on, and only fixed date is 8th March. So, I guess will be flexibility depending on the data, and maybe restrictions will be eased sooner than some people are fearing.

[Guest]

Just now, JoeyT said:

96% compliance?

That study is laughable.

The UCL surveyed 70k people. A large data set and a very reputable organisation, therefore it’s likely to be a credible study. 

[BobWillis]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

96% compliance?

That study is laughable.

Only 4% admit breaking rules should be the headline 

Edited February 20, 2021 by BobWillis

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

96% compliance?

That study is laughable.

Silent majority.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

My PHE friend says he's seen a draft copy of roadmap, but it's still being worked on, and only fixed date is 8th March. So, I guess will be flexibility depending on the data, and maybe restrictions will be eased sooner than some people are fearing.

and he says the story in Guardian about Whitty not being happy about all years going back is correct.

[steviewevie]

Serbia are beating us!

[Mellotr0n]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

Its actually genius really- they get the optics of moving forward, especially with parents ahead of the local elections, they know cases will go up sharply when it happens  but they have a 2 week "firebreak" naturally built in to hide it and stop the exponential growth until mid to late April, after loads more vaccinations are done.

“They know cases will go up sharply”

based on what? Previous evidence suggests schools haven’t made a huge difference to the R rate, and we now have a pretty massive level (and growing every day) or immunity through mass infection and mass vaccination  

I’m not disputing that they might rise a little, but I think we’re now at a point where we’re very, very unlikely to ever seen cases rise “sharply” ever again. I can’t see how they would, when you look at all relevant data. 

[BobWillis]

1 minute ago, Mellotr0n said:

“They know cases will go up sharply”

based on what? Previous evidence suggests schools haven’t made a huge difference to the R rate, and we now have a pretty massive level (and growing every day) or immunity through mass infection and mass vaccination  

I’m not disputing that they might rise a little, but I think we’re now at a point where we’re very, very unlikely to ever seen cases rise “sharply” ever again. I can’t see how they would, when you look at all relevant data. 

It’s like people forget November ever happened. 
Cases declined at a steady rate with schools and outdoor recreation open. 

[fraybentos1]

There is absolutely no way 96% of people follow all the rules. That is nonsense. 96% of people probably generally follow most of the rules. 

If I was polled and asked do you comply with the rules I'd say generally yes, but I am still going out a walk with a friend in 10 mins cause it is outside and it is so so low risk.

[Ryan1984]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Everyone I know is still following the rules, they’ve all kept to the rules throughout and are still doing so.

In my area when I go out for a walk I don’t see any groups at all, it’s all just couples or people on their own. The roads are a bit busier but everywhere else is really quiet. 

Same here. Whenever I’ve gone out for a walk or run, the most I have seen is three adults together - could be a household? Think that might technically be against the current rules though.

[Guest]

Just now, Ryan1984 said:

Same here. Whenever I’ve gone out for a walk or run, the most I have seen is three adults together - could be a household? Think that might technically be against the current rules though.

A household or support bubble can go out for walks together.

[BobWillis]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

There is absolutely no way 96% of people follow all the rules. That is nonsense. 96% of people probably generally follow most of the rules. 

If I was polled and asked do you comply with the rules I'd say generally yes, but I am still going out a walk with a friend in 10 mins cause it is outside and it is so so low risk.

Going out for a walk with a friend isn’t breaking the rules?! 

[Matt42]

I’m not surprised obedience is going down. I think general fear of the virus is going down.

most people have family members who have been jabbed. Both my parents and my grandparents have.

What kept people following the rules is the fear of causing the elderly to get infected. But now people are not as afraid. 

[steviewevie]

Of course not everyone is going to follow all the rules, they know that and have to factor it in, behavourial science....you just need enough people to follow enough of the rules...and as people are saying as cases/deaths/vaccination numbers improve more and more people will just not stick to them so much.

[steviewevie]

PHE bloke reckons high schools will be back too, but all high school kis to take lateral test 3 times a week, and teachers, and parents to use tests at home. Ugh.

[zero000]

Just now, Matt42 said:

I’m not surprised obedience is going down. I think general fear of the virus is going down.

most people have family members who have been jabbed. Both my parents and my grandparents have.

What kept people following the rules is the fear of causing the elderly to get infected. But now people are not as afraid. 

I think this is going to be a significant factor moving on this year. Adherence is going to be based on the rationale for restrictions. Saving older and more vulnerable members of our population definitely ticks that box. Worry about hypothetical new variants spreading will not. 
 

 

[Matt42]

4 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Worry about hypothetical new variants spreading will not. 
 

 

Coupled with younger people missing their friends and family badly and wanting to make up for lost time.

We are bound to get a new variant which isn’t as effective so we need a new vaccine, but that happens with the flu every year - we don’t go into lockdown yearly for the flu.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Coupled with younger people missing their friends and family badly and wanting to make up for lost time.

We are bound to get a new variant which isn’t as effective so we need a new vaccine, but that happens with the flu every year - we don’t go into lockdown yearly for the flu.

difference at moment is they have a vaccine ready for the dominant flu variant every year...whereas we don't have the ability to do that with covid yet as things can move so quickly.

[Copperface]

44 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

My PHE friend says he's seen a draft copy of roadmap, but it's still being worked on, and only fixed date is 8th March. So, I guess will be flexibility depending on the data, and maybe restrictions will be eased sooner than some people are fearing.

Could be quite interesting as pre-election purdah kicks in around the 22nd March, exactly two weeks after this date, which is the upper end of incubation time, so possibly might have an effect in any release of information that might be deemed politically motivated/unfair/biased. 

Can see a few discussions taking place about what should be released which might cloud full transparency.

Not sure if it affects SAGE members etc as to how much information they are allowed to release/comment on etc but might make a difference with the talking heads in the media. 

[Guest]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

 

Good thread from a covid centrist 

[duke88]

54 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

There is absolutely no way 96% of people follow all the rules. That is nonsense. 96% of people probably generally follow most of the rules. 

If I was polled and asked do you comply with the rules I'd say generally yes, but I am still going out a walk with a friend in 10 mins cause it is outside and it is so so low risk.

That’s not against the rules though...

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Good thread from a covid centrist 

No household mixing indoors till May?

Edited February 20, 2021 by steviewevie

[Crazyfool01]

Its nearly March now ... keep strong everyone we will see this off ... 

[Fuzzy Afro]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

No household mixing indoors till May?

I would prefer if every household was allowed to form a support bubble in April and May, as per the rules in Northern Ireland. Then rule of 6 indoor mixing in May and beyond.