When will this shit end?

[Mr.Tease]

17 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

As R drops, each successive generation of people infected is smaller than the last. So for example, if R is 4, then 1000 infected people will infect 4000. If R drops to 3, then 1000 infected people will infect 3000. Cases have dropped from 4000 to 3000 but R isn’t below 1. The graph above shows daily cases rather than cumulative ones (that’s a line that keeps growing!). When R does drop below 1, cases will eventually dwindle to 0, how far below 1 determines how quickly you get there. Estimating R is difficult and not that exact (hence a range is given that reflects the current caseload). But cases will appear to drop before R actually reaches 1. 

Thanks, as ever! 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

Glad we’ve not learned anything 

 

56 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Fuck me that’s stupid. They haven’t learnt anything.

Specifically what is wrong with this plan?

[efcfanwirral]

25 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

Blimey. I had assumed rule of 6 outside would be one of the first things we’d get, perhaps mid/late March...

Weather still bad, I think people would meet up then go inside because it's cold/raining etc. 

17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Maybe data coming out of hospitals is all good and they really can have shops and pubs all open before the May local elections....

That's all that matters- even if they tighten up a week later they'll have achieved their goals 

[steviewevie]

If Neil Ferguson is optimistic then we really might be in a good place...

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Specifically what is wrong with this plan?

Crucially the third bullet point says best case scenario if cases continue to fall or words to that effect too.

[steviewevie]

Newsnight doing covid (again)

[steviewevie]

What is an acceptable level of deaths from covid every year?

[Punksnotdead]

15 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Yep. But at least you can be the worst guest in the history of hotels and you know they won't throw you out.

It's all very well shitting the bed when you're only staying one night but not so great if you're locked in the room for 10 days!

[xxialac]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Specifically what is wrong with this plan?

Because in 2020 we lifted restrictions too quickly when the data didn't suggest it was wise as a result the transmission went back up in this country. And we did this twice.

Case numbers need to get to the 1,000s.

Last week almost 1 million people had Covid.

 

[Mellotr0n]

28 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Yep I can see the arguement both ways. I guess the idea being if you give people somewhere they meet they might choose to do it there rather than the more risky home.

I suppose hopefully the novelty of being back in pubs/restaurants might help this, as everyone will be so bored of being in their homes. 

[zahidf]

22 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Because in 2020 we lifted restrictions too quickly when the data didn't suggest it was wise as a result the transmission went back up in this country. And we did this twice.

Case numbers need to get to the 1,000s.

Last week almost 1 million people had Covid.

 

Its based on this though

 

[dotdash79]

32 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Newsnight doing covid (again)

Imagine a news program reporting on the thing that directly affects everyone more than once. 

[xxialac]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Its based on this though

 

So schools won't open by Easter but pubs will?

[Fuzzy Afro]

32 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

What is an acceptable level of deaths from covid every year?

Well flu is around 7000 a year on average and 20k in a bad year. 50000+ would be far too many. I reckon maybe 20000 a year will be the level that it settles at.

30 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Because in 2020 we lifted restrictions too quickly when the data didn't suggest it was wise as a result the transmission went back up in this country. And we did this twice.

Case numbers need to get to the 1,000s.

Last week almost 1 million people had Covid.

 

We're running at about 14,000 cases a day just now but remember that this will halve twice more before that 8th March date. So you're talking 3000-4000 a day by then. You need to get down to < 1000 a day for T&T to be able to realistically track every outbreak, so in theory they should wait another month for two more halvings.

 

Having said that, you're now in a scenario where the groups who make up the vast majority of the deaths are vaccinated. The next groups who are slightly less vulnerable but still at risk of ICU admission are about to be vaccinated as well. 

 

I've got no problem with them setting out a rough plan for how the coming months can be expected to look. Remember that (a) we're still 3.5 weeks away from even the earliest easing, (b) It's not going to be an open all at once job on 8/3/2021 and (c) The breaks can go on if the numbers start going north.

 

There is literally zero reason NOT to announce some form of roadmap.

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, xxialac said:

So schools won't open by Easter but pubs will?

Schools are opening way before pubs. Where on earth are you getting that from?

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Schools are opening way before pubs. Where on earth are you getting that from?

Um, from literally two posts up?

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Um, from literally two posts up?

That's... not what it said. The article says schools reopen March 6th. The modelling doesn't know what happens when schools reopen.

[Guest]

How does this government have so much credit in the bank still? We’ve opened up too quickly before and we are potentially doing it again. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

8 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Um, from literally two posts up?

That tweet is saying that those projections don't have schools being open included in the model. Not that schools won't be opened. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

How does this government have so much credit in the bank still? We’ve opened up too quickly before and we are potentially doing it again. 

What's your roadmap for reopening then? If you're going to criticise this and say it's too quick, I'd be interested to know what your proposal would be?

[xxialac]

Let me explain:

Newpaper article:  All schools to open simultaneously, then non essential shops, then, pubs by Easter.

Zahidf: Sounds reasonable to me...what is wrong with this plan? -> but then quotes forecast that supposedly justifies this - but doesn't include opening schools in the model.

My post: (pointing out the anomaly): So schools won't open by Easter but pubs will?

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by xxialac

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Let me explain:

Newpaper article:  All schools to open simultaneously, then non essential shops, then, pubs by Easter.

Zahidf: Sounds reasonable to me...what is wrong with this plan? -> but then quotes forecast that supposedly justifies this - but doesn't include opening schools in the model.

My post: (pointing out the anomaly): So schools won't open by Easter but pubs will?

 

Your missing the key point from the news paper article. They will transition  between stages of the data allows. 

I really don't understand what's so controversial about the best case scenario time line. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-end-when-government-plans-roadmap-reopen-pubs-shops-schools-uk-travel-covid-rules-870809

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Your missing the key point from the news paper article. They will before between stages of the data allows. 

I really don't understand what's so controversial about the best case scenario time line. 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-end-when-government-plans-roadmap-reopen-pubs-shops-schools-uk-travel-covid-rules-870809

 

But that wasn't the article zahidf used to justify his position. 

He quoted the Spi-M projections ("it's based on this though")

"The projections are based on assumption that around 2m people will be vaccinated every week, driving down hospitalisation and deaths. They also reflect ongoing impact of lockdown. However impact of reopening schools is not included"

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Let me explain:

Newpaper article:  All schools to open simultaneously, then non essential shops, then, pubs by Easter.

Zahidf: Sounds reasonable to me...what is wrong with this plan? -> but then quotes forecast that supposedly justifies this - but doesn't include opening schools in the model.

My post: (pointing out the anomaly): So schools won't open by Easter but pubs will?

 

Plus it seems awfully quick to go from schools opening on 8th March to shops and pubs a month later. They need to take their time and see the effects of these things individually along with along people to mix more with other households. Why do we have to be back here again?

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

But that wasn't the article zahidf used to justify his position. 

He quoted the Spi-M projections ("it's based on this though")

"The projections are based on assumption that around 2m people will be vaccinated every week, driving down hospitalisation and deaths. They also reflect ongoing impact of lockdown. However impact of reopening schools is not included"

Yes - the projections that were quoted don't include the variation caused by schools reopening (whatever that might be). That is not saying schools won't open. Just that the modeling doesn't include the impact of that. 

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Plus it seems awfully quick to go from schools opening on 8th March to shops and pubs a month later. They need to take their time and see the effects of these things individually along with along people to mix more with other households. Why do we have to be back here again?

That is exactly what all the news articles say they are going to do. Exactly that. 

They will move between stages depending on the data at the time. They aren't saying that timeline will happen it's what could happen it's the best case scenario if we passed each stage gate first time. 

“The current plan is very much the three-stage approach, beginning with the reopening of schools, watching the R number, and if that remains low then non-essential shops will open. Then another short wait until hospitality businesses open.”

Edited February 13, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter