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Brexit at Glasto?

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3 minutes ago, Keithy said:

I suppose I'm looking at it (playing devils advocate) from a leavers view. Why is remain on the paper? We've decided to leave, we had a referendum.

I think it'd be a really hard sell to have remain on the paper and I'm not sure there's a majority of MPs to vote for it. Plus it's fuel the line that remainers have not accepted the first referendum. 

There's also the issue to address of what happens if remain wins? I'd bet the house that leavers would come out fighting saying that the Brexit negotiations were such a calamity that it didn't represent the true option of 'leave'. We'd have years of a Brexit party standing in elections with a 3rd referendum hanging over us

Well yeah, any Remain vote is "remain for now". Because we can leave at any time. Because we do have sovereignty. 

You have remain on the paper as plenty of Leavers would rather remain if they don't get their preferred option. It's as much for them as people who never wanted to leave in the first place. Crucially, "Remain" in that context leaves the hope that they might get their preferred Leave mechanism later on.

Would there be other referenda? Probably. But as long as the government holds strong on the idea that it needs to be Remain vs "actual viable leaving plan" then they will never pass. It'll soon become quite obvious that there's no majority for any one type of leave. I'm happy to keep having votes. If there's a leave plan that the majority of the country can get behind that's fair enough.

Plus you're very concerned with the views of leavers, even though they're in a minority now. They know it, that's why they are so scared of another referendum. If they truly believed there was still a majority they would welcome it as a way to end the commons deadlock.

You think us pro-EU folk are going to go away? I can promise you now, when/if we do leave, there will be years of pro-EU parties standing in elections and a 3rd referendum to rejoin the EU hanging over you. And unlike in the other case, their numbers are growing, not falling, and will likely continue to grow.

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17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

remain would be on the paper because the way it's played out it's clear that the last vote was flawed. No one knows what 'leave' actually meant. It was undefined, there was no plan.

Don't forgot, it's not remainers in Parliament who are ultimately blocking brexit but leavers - because the biggest advocates of leave (Mogg, IDS, Redwood, Cash, etc) won't vote to leave. Because it's THEM who are disputing what leave means, not remainers. And they still don't actually have a plan for how to leave, they just want to throw us off the cliff instead.

(and even if they got their perfect brexit they'd blame everyone else when it went wrong. There's no appeasing the stupid).

Oh I agree with you entirely but don't see a path to a remain option in a referendum. 

I think there would be less opposition to revoking and resubmit A50 to 'reset the clock'. You can argue that the first ref is still valid at that point and then allow a true brexiteer to attempt their unicorn deal with a 2nd ref at the end of the process to accept it or remain.

Edited by Keithy

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3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

You're very definitely over-playing the difficulty.

STV is already in use in the UK, in Scotland, NI, & Wales. 

It has been successfully explained to those parts of the UK already. It can quite easily be explained to England to those who don't already understand it.

Oh I don't argue I'm overpaying the difficulty. I suppose I'm just playing out how the leavers (public, MPs and Press) will play it. I'm sure they'll immediately leap on the 'too complicated' bandwagon which will influence the electoral commission thinking to a degree.

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4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But as long as the government holds strong on the idea that it needs to be Remain vs "actual viable leaving plan" then they will never pass.

I agree with all what you've said. On the point above, I'd argue that is quite difficult to achieve. One of the quirks of Brexit is that you can't come up with a plan before a referendum. The EU won't enter into any discussions about a withdrawal agreement unless A50 has been submitted. So unless it's an off the shelf plan (eg Norway) then you're back into the realms of Brexiteers promising something that they don't know can be delivered as the other side (EU) won't enter into discussions.

Re. Leavers being a minority. I'm not so sure and I think this is a trap us Remainers risk stumbling into. I think a lot of people are fed up with it and say they'll vote remain in polls because the discussion ends but I still think if we had a second referendum, it would be mighty close.

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16 minutes ago, Keithy said:

Oh I agree with you entirely but don't see a path to a remain option in a referendum. 

I think there would be less opposition to revoking and resubmit A50 to 'reset the clock'. You can argue that the first ref is still valid at that point and then allow a true brexiteer to attempt their unicorn deal with a 2nd ref at the end of the process to accept it or remain.

While I think there needs to be a public vote to give legitimacy to whatever we choose to do, as far as bad future consequences go I reckon revoking a50 is the next least-bad option.

The headbanger brexiters are going to kick off no matter what happens - even hard brexit - so once their noise is taken out of things revoking a50 is an option without much noise.

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17 minutes ago, Keithy said:

Oh I don't argue I'm overpaying the difficulty. I suppose I'm just playing out how the leavers (public, MPs and Press) will play it. I'm sure they'll immediately leap on the 'too complicated' bandwagon which will influence the electoral commission thinking to a degree.

the ones who'd say 'too complicated' are the same ones who'd complain if there was a vote without no-deal included.

When it's impossible to satisfy a segment of the population it's pretty safe to ignore their views entirely, to concentrate on those who can be satisfied.

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26 minutes ago, Keithy said:

Re. Leavers being a minority. I'm not so sure and I think this is a trap us Remainers risk stumbling into. I think a lot of people are fed up with it and say they'll vote remain in polls because the discussion ends but I still think if we had a second referendum, it would be mighty close.

I'm still concerned that if we held a 2nd referendum now that leave would still win even without any clarity on the terms of leave. 

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28 minutes ago, Keithy said:

I agree with all what you've said. On the point above, I'd argue that is quite difficult to achieve. One of the quirks of Brexit is that you can't come up with a plan before a referendum. The EU won't enter into any discussions about a withdrawal agreement unless A50 has been submitted. So unless it's an off the shelf plan (eg Norway) then you're back into the realms of Brexiteers promising something that they don't know can be delivered as the other side (EU) won't enter into discussions.

I don't think that's true. The EU were pretty straightforwards from the start in saying what would and wouldn't work - including the indivisibility of the freedoms. I mean, the situation we are in now is that the EU have followed through 100% on what they've always said their position would be. That some people insisted it wasn't true and they need us more than we need them etc. is why we are in this mess. Now we know the sort of deal the EU would accept it'll be a lot easier to put an actual deal on the ballot.

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4 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

I'm still concerned that if we held a 2nd referendum now that leave would still win even without any clarity on the terms of leave. 

they might win again with another unicorn version of leave for them to support, yep.

It's unlikely they'd win again when the unicorns are removed and they have to get behind the reality of a single pathway.

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28 minutes ago, Keithy said:

The EU won't enter into any discussions about a withdrawal agreement unless A50 has been submitted

This is the entire issue. The A50 process is a broken process.

I'm a remainer - I'll be marching on Saturday to show support for a different outcome. Show some effing leadership and change A50.

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Just fucking fuck Brexit.

It's getting personal now.

It's in danger of interfering with my Glastonbury.

We had all leave cancelled for two months from March 29th in case of a no deal scenario. And I mean all leave. No exceptions. Even the bloke that plays golf with the head honcho twice a week had to drop a (booked well in advance) £700 holiday. If he couldn't wangle out of it nobody could.

If the latest (ever shifting) scenario comes into play then they're talking the end of May now, and those two months may well be shifted forward (or is it back(?)) if a no deal thing happens.

I'm not into the festival yet. But I have a job offer. But that involves a £300 deposit that I may well lose.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to take that gamble. If I lose then at least I can console myself knowing that said £300 has gone to good cause. Every cloud and all that.

But seriously. Fuck fucking brexit.

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2 minutes ago, MrZigster said:

Just fucking fuck Brexit.

It's getting personal now.

Me, I'm starting to remind brexiters that they won, and that I'm still sucking it up. :D 

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20 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Me, I'm starting to remind brexiters that they won, and that I'm still sucking it up. :D 

I'm not sure if I get your context Sir.

Do you mean in a "you voted for this nuttiness, you nutter" type of way?

I'm getting really fed up of having to listen to and deal with (I believe the term is) gammons.

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1 minute ago, MrZigster said:

I'm not sure if I get your context Sir.

Do you mean in a "you voted for this nuttiness, you nutter" type of way?

I'm getting really fed up of having to listen to and deal with (I believe the term is) gammons.

According to May, LEAVE voters voted for pain

 

 

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12 minutes ago, MrZigster said:

I'm not sure if I get your context Sir.

Do you mean in a "you voted for this nuttiness, you nutter" type of way?

I'm getting really fed up of having to listen to and deal with (I believe the term is) gammons.

I hadn't really taken on board all of what you'd posted when I replied - so apologies if it seemed flippant against your circumstances.

What I meant was ...

Brexit is changing, and the brexiters hate it ... but it's still what they won, which they told me to suck up.

And it's the brexiters blocking brexit.

So I'm starting to remind the leavers I meet about these, because it confuses the hell out of them (not that it takes much to confuse some leavers). It stands the chance of actually making them think.

So while I think "Just fucking fuck Brexit" like you, there's some fun to be had with it, and quite possibly a no-brexit outcome down the road too. There's reasons to be cheerful.

Edited by eFestivals

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2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I hadn't really taken on board all of what you'd posted when I replied - so apologies if it seemed flippant against your circumstances.

What I meant was ...

Brexit is changing, and the brexiters hate it ... but it's still what they won, which they told me to suck up.

And it's the brexiters blocking brexit.

So I'm starting to remind the leavers I meet about these, because it confuses the hell out of them (not that it takes much to confuse some leavers). It stands the chance of actually making them think.

So while I think "Just fucking fuck Brexit" like you, there's some fun to be had with it, and quite possibly a no-brexit outcome down the road too. There's reasons to be cheerful.

No offence taken I was just confused. Sod my personal circumstances. I'm more concerned for the state of the nation :) 

Everybody hates it. Nobody has got what they voted for. Everyone is unhappy. Typical tory divide and rule? The paranoid in me feels like there's been a coup.

And you are right. It is funny. I've always dealt with calamities with humour and certain peoples reasoning over this is nothing but laughable to my eyes.

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https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-22/eu-leaders-want-rid-of-brexit-poison/

Peston thinking a no-deal Brexit is the most likely option. Can't see it happening imo. If there's a no deal exit imminent, there would be a majority for the revocation of Article 50.

What also matters is how they set out the indicative votes next week. Do it poorly and it won't rule anything out, or we might have a number of majorities for differing plans. There's also the issue of having indicative votes on very different concepts, e.g. A 2nd ref vs Norway vs May's deal. Each of these is completely different. Seems like it could be a complete clusterfuck if it's not enacted properly.

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18 minutes ago, zero000 said:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-22/eu-leaders-want-rid-of-brexit-poison/

Peston thinking a no-deal Brexit is the most likely option. Can't see it happening imo. If there's a no deal exit imminent, there would be a majority for the revocation of Article 50.

What also matters is how they set out the indicative votes next week. Do it poorly and it won't rule anything out, or we might have a number of majorities for differing plans. There's also the issue of having indicative votes on very different concepts, e.g. A 2nd ref vs Norway vs May's deal. Each of these is completely different. Seems like it could be a complete clusterfuck if it's not enacted properly.

Only the PM can stop No Deal or revoke A50 as only the PM can table the necessary legislation. My worry is May will run the clock down until next Friday and so the only way to stop it is to remove her with a government no con vote and the new PM to table the necessary legislation immediately by next Friday.

The timeframe for stopping no deal is still currently 7 days despite the EU agreeing to a temp extension. That extension is meaningless without the government tabling secondary legislation to amend the current exit date in the EU Withdrawal Bill to match the agreed EU date.

I can't see May running the clock down to Friday but she's in such a bunker mentality that anything is possible. 

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23 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Peston thinking a no-deal Brexit is the most likely option. Can't see it happening imo. If there's a no deal exit imminent, there would be a majority for the revocation of Article 50.

doesn't matter. Only May is in control of what really happens. If she refuses to bring legislation to stop us crashing out, we crash out.

Seems to me from what the EU have been saying is that she doesn't want to take the decision for what happens and wants the actions of others to decide it for her.

Which probably means she's ultimately going to be less keen to be the one responsible for a no-deal brexit than she's going to be the one that bottled out of brexit (if it comes to the line of that no-deal moment). So we'll probably be alright.

But that would probably have to have her resignation immediately follow her stopping brexit, so maybe she hasn't got the bottle to stop it. :( 

 

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33 minutes ago, MrZigster said:

Everybody hates it.

But that's the point. They won, and they hate what they've won.

It means they're going to have to come round to a different point of view. For some that's a no-deal brexit, but not for all of them. 

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13 minutes ago, Keithy said:

The timeframe for stopping no deal is still currently 7 days despite the EU agreeing to a temp extension. That extension is meaningless without the government tabling secondary legislation to amend the current exit date in the EU Withdrawal Bill to match the agreed EU date.

I can't see May running the clock down to Friday but she's in such a bunker mentality that anything is possible. 

I think we're fairly safe from next Friday being the cliff edge. Even the ERG's latest (laughable) 'plan' involves a delay.

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Yep @eFestivals @Keithy you're both right. I too have limited faith in May's ability to bring forth the legislation needed to avoid no deal in that scenario.  

My main hope is that the rebellion would be so great in the cabinet it would force her hand. All pie in the sky though given the ERGs control over her.

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