Weather thread 2015

[devonhammer]

Models are starting to agree which is a really good sign. Likelihood of mix of cloud with a bit of sun and some showers - most likely Friday, least likely Wednesday and Thursday. When I say showers, I mean a tiny amount of rain and not enough to cause problems. 1mm of rain is equivalent to a litre over a square metre - it's not much. The fly in the ointment is still the low in the Atlantic. This is predicted to bring rain as close as South Wales, so this is my get out of jail card if it rains.

 

J10: No update last night.

 

GFS: Light showers Friday afternoon. Otherwise dry. Rain not far away (South Wales)

TWO: Showers on Friday, but otherwise dry

Meteox: Showers Friday, showers Sunday. Otherwise dry.. 

Meteo: Very light showers on Friday and Sunday. Otherwise dry.

GFS Ensemble: Showers overnight on Friday. Only individual runs showing any rain after that. 

Met Office: Showers Friday afternoon. Not forecasting Sat or Sun yet. 

ECM: Possible showers on Saturday. Otherwise dry. 

YR.NO: Shower on Sunday. Otherwise dry.

[Tacopowell]

With all the positive talk can I please return the house to its rollercoaster order?!

What are the chances of the Low pressure that was Bill still pushing south in time for the weekend?

Hard to gauge but the BBC video suggests any rain would be light?
Would the warmer weather to the south not help supply that front with more of a downpour?

[Magma]

I spent Saturday dutifully dodging showers to have a good ol' fashioned British summer bbq... it appears this has done enough to appease the weather spirits for now, but now is not the time for complacency and celebration.

[Avalon_Fields]

Rain today is perfect really if it's dry all Tuesday and Wednesday. The ground will dry up but not to the extent where your tent pegs will refuse to stick in.

You can thank me later for this awesome post.

Is it too early to thank you for your awesome post?

[The Placid Casual]

Is it too early to thank you for your awesome post?

You are very much welcome to thank me for my awesome post now.

[Avalon_Fields]

You are very much welcome to thank me for my awesome post now.

Good! your post was most awesome amongst your consistently awesome-like posts.

Buy me a beer?

[The Placid Casual]

Good! your post was most awesome amongst your consistently awesome-like posts.

Buy me a beer?

I'm beer'd out.

[devonhammer]

With all the positive talk can I please return the house to its rollercoaster order?!

What are the chances of the Low pressure that was Bill still pushing south in time for the weekend?

Hard to gauge but the BBC video suggests any rain would be light?

Would the warmer weather to the south not help supply that front with more of a downpour?

 

There's always the possibility of Bill pushing South, but there's a high over Europe competing with it and the high over Greenland that pushes the lows down is breaking up (of course, it might not break up, it's still there now).

 

Would the warmer weather supply Bill with more moisture? Unlikely - winds will go anti-clockwise around a low, so our air will have come from Europe, not from over the sea (you might detect a hint of garlic). Bill will be getting it's moisture from the Atlantic and is a normal low pressure now, nothing special.

 

The forecasts aren't nailed on because of the proximity of Bill, but it's looking more and more likely.

[Space Shanty]

And there I was looking online for gaiters over the weekend.

Goodbye waterproofs, hello space cakes

[jeffie]

Where's the new charts with red bits n stuff?

[kalifire]

Rain eased off in Frome now. Sky still looks threatening.

[Spindles]

That I would like to see.  The visible satellite images look nothing like the positivity of this thread, so I'd love to see some pressure to reassure me which way things are likely to travel.

[Homer]

I've been a big off the grid what with going to Blur on Sat. What's the general consensus please?

[st dan]

Rain eased off in Frome now. Sky still looks threatening.

I thought this was a cycling related post then for a second!

[devonhammer]

And there I was looking online for gaiters over the weekend.

Goodbye waterproofs, hello space cakes

 

I studied meteorology at university. I always take gaiters. Never wellies, but always walking boots and gaiters. Did it in 97, did it in 2010. Foolish not to. We get obsessed by weather in this blessed land because it's never nailed on.

 

To be fair, my studies were a long time ago and mostly involved studying pine cones and interviewing witches.

[pedmills]

I've been a big off the grid what with going to Blur on Sat. What's the general consensus please?

Dry wednesday, thursday and saturday. A tiny bit of rain on friday and sunday.

[rmcoboy]

Wellies can stay in the car in case Bill heads south, meteorologically speaking.  Breathable walking boots for me as every year bar 2010.  Best thing is when they double as a pint holder whilst lounging outside Brothers, barefoot in the sunshine.  Bring it on!

[The Placid Casual]

The Nal's been awfully quiet recently.

[devonhammer]

The Nal's been awfully quiet recently.

 

Arks don't build themselves

[Magma]

Wellies can stay in the car in case Bill heads south, meteorologically speaking.  Breathable walking boots for me as every year bar 2010.  Best thing is when they double as a pint holder whilst lounging outside Brothers, barefoot in the sunshine.  Bring it on!

 

Just an inappropriately for the thread unscientific warning - the last time I left my wellies in the car because it was clearly gonna be a scorcher was 2005.

 

Then the Great Smiting of 2005 happened.

 

Take the wellies.

[st dan]

The Nal's been awfully quiet recently.

He's busy hiring a private plane trailing a banner saying "Told you we were fucked!" , and filling up thousands of water balloons and super soakers.

[briddj]

Where's the new charts with red bits n stuff?

 

Next charts 11-11.20am, and every six hours afterwards.

[jeffie]

Next charts 11-11.20am, and every six hours afterwards.

 

Cheers for that.

[jeffie]

Just an inappropriately for the thread unscientific warning - the last time I left my wellies in the car because it was clearly gonna be a scorcher was 2005.

 

Then the Great Smiting of 2005 happened.

 

Take the wellies.

 

Agree.

 

Once in the last couple of years we left our wellies and boots in the car.

 

I took it for the team going to get them in trainers on, was it the Wednesday/Thursday evening?

 

That was really really shit.

[fightoffyour]

It's 1st of March 2009. Aston Villa are 4th in the league with a 5 point gap and a game in hand over 5th placed Arsenal, chasing Champions League qualification for the first time.

They're at home to Stoke City. They're 2-0 up. It's the 88th minute. They're about to move 8 points clear with 11 to play.

 

Nothing can go wrong now can it? CAN IT?