The Dirty Independence Question

[russycarps]

So if only those over 18 had voted - which is how it should have been as people younger generally lack the maturity or insight to make such a decision - the gap would have been much wider.

Cameron gave salmond everything he desired, and he still lost. Lost to a fucking tory who is leading a hated government. The weakest, most jelly spined, water brained prime minister in decades. And he lost by a considerable margin.

Why hasnt he resigned immediately? He wants power so badly even now he is still clinging on. Sad and pathetic.

Edited September 19, 2014 by russycarps

[Alcatraz]

Those 16-17 year old votes are very telling. A lot of 16-17 year olds haven't a clue about politics, nor understand the finer points of a lot of political issues. Not saying "all of them" by any stretch of the imagination, but a hell of a lot of them.

I've heard from quite a lot of very eloquent Yes 16/17 voters, one was just on BBC 2 in fact. Her argument was good, but was certainly grounded in the far fetched utopian view of what iScotland could have been.

There's no chance the franchise gets lowered for the next election right? The Tories would set to be the losers, and they've got plenty of distractions now to hide it in the cupboard

[eFestivals]

anonymous doesnt necessarily mean they don't collect basic information surely?

no one did it - they'd have needed to do it at every polling station in Scotland to get anything sensible from the data.

[kaosmark2]

Really pleased about the turnout, and also very pleased that it wasn't particularly close. While I've become a fairly strong believer in No, I think it's more important that it was a definitive result.

I'm hoping that if we ever get another opportunity to campaign for political change, that such a campaign can take from the positive aspects of the Yes campaign (of which there were a number at grassroots level, even though there were obviously both twats and politicians around).

So if only those over 18 had voted - which is how it should have been as people younger generally lack the maturity or insight to make such a decision - the gap would have been much wider.

I really disagree. There's plenty of 40 year old without the maturity or insight to make any decision whatsoever, and plenty of 16 year olds who do.

[eFestivals]

I would guess that is the source...

I don't believe opinion polls have wide enough range to accurately tell you about these sort of voting habits. According to some of the articles I read yesterday anyway.

Around half of the people that YouGov have been polling have been polled by YouGov for five or more years - and so the combination of that data over time gives them a good ability to spot the real trends (and even spot false ones within the data they're getting from people for the first time).

Polling is an awful lot smarter than most people give it credit for.

One of the reasons, I suspect, that YouGov had such confidence in their data was precisely because they got things a bit wrong in the SG elections of 2011. They'll have been able to go back on that after the election, and then create a new data model with that data that matched what the SG election result really was.

There was an element of guess about it all because there'd been no previous indyref to compare against, but there was much less guessing than many people are thinking because there was a lot that could be got from using that historical data.

[russycarps]

Yep, you have to say the real winners in all this were yougov and the bookies. Their reputations have been enhanced.

[eFestivals]

There is a fundamental difference between asking someone what they plan on doing next week versus what they did a moment ago...

And the polling also exposed that there's a difference between what someone says they'll do today compared to what they'll do in a few days - which is (ultimately) why many of us predicted a greater winning margin for no than the polls were suggesting by just their numbers alone. We'd cottoned onto that idea even if we didn't know the polling data was picking it up (I did, but only in the last day or so before the vote).

I totally accept you can take something from the opinion polls... I would suggest though, particularly talking about the younger generation of 16-17 year olds, you take any conclusions with a bit of caution.

yep, some of the data they were getting will have been more trustworthy than other data. YouGov were making that clear within their blogs, where they kept referring back to how much of their sample was from long-term polled-people.

They possibly had little to work from for the youngsters - tho there's probably a lot of general data (not specifically around the indyref) which gives a good indication of how sway-able that age range are, and how much they might yo-yo.

The younger you are the more likely you are to change your mind at the last moment.

I'm not sure about that. Youngsters tend to have visions of tomorrow which aren't necessarily strongly related to the facts.

If I think back to some of the ideas I had at that young age, they were big ideas which today often seem very naive.

We could of done with an exit poll...

Because it would have had to be done at every polling station to be worth anything, no one was prepared to stump up for it.

[metallimuse]

It's weird,I always wanted a No vote but at the same time now it's come I'm actually a bit sad for some reason.I have always said the idea was fantastic but the practicality not feasible.

Mixed emotions.

[LJS]

Those 16-17 year old votes are very telling. A lot of 16-17 year olds haven't a clue about politics, nor understand the finer points of a lot of political issues. Not saying "all of them" by any stretch of the imagination, but a hell of a lot of them.

I strongly believe including 16-17 year olds was the right thing to do. Frankly its a lot more to do with them than it is with the over 65's as we were voting for the long term future of our country. I think it is really simplistic to suggest they have any less of a clue about politics than any other age group. As you have probably read, I have a 17 year old daughter and she certainly is clued up on politics and speaking to other parents, this was a common theme. Of course some weren't but then I met a guy I used to work with the other day - he'll be in his late 20's - I asked him if he was voting -he said "no it doesn't make any difference to me - I'll still go to the pub!

And are the views of a 15 year old any less valid than that of a 60 year old who has voted labour all his life because his faither voted Labour and has never even thought about voting any other way & who votes No because that is what Labour says.

I take it part of your basis for saying they know less about politics is because so many of them voted yes. I think there has far to much on here of the "if you vote(d) yes you must be an idiot" line. Like every other country , we have our idiots in Scotland - I don't think we have 1.6 million of them.

The other point that teenagers have always tended to be more idealistic ( & I hope to god they always will) & there wasn't much in the better together campaign for the idealist.

A (small) part of my reason for voting yes was that my younger son missed out on voting by 3 months. In my biassed opinion, he is not stupid & he supported Independence, Part of my vote was his vote.

[LJS]

Just put this on facebook

For those of us who voted yes, last night was obviously a disappointment but as is the way these days we are required to "take some positives" from it. Here is one which I suspect both sides will agree with. Never have our politicians been forced to work so hard for their money. Never have they had to spend so much time actually talking to real people. Let's see if we can keep them working that hard.

[eFestivals]

I strongly believe including 16-17 year olds was the right thing to do. Frankly its a lot more to do with them than it is with the over 65's as we were voting for the long term future of our country.

So the stake that those oldies have in the country - via a lifetime of pension payments - counts for little?

I think it is really simplistic to suggest they have any less of a clue about politics than any other age group. As you have probably read, I have a 17 year old daughter and she certainly is clued up on politics and speaking to other parents, this was a common theme.

clued up? Really?

If they were so clued up, surely they wouldn't have voted in such great numbers* for yes? Unless you're saying that they're more clued up than the voting population as a whole?

(* if the percentages someone posted here today are correct).

You and most yes-ers didn't want to accept the risks as real, but the vote shows that plenty did.

The other point that teenagers have always tended to be more idealistic

Yep - which also means they take less notice of reality!

The two can't be separated, unless reality is being properly factored in. And it's clear to see by the lack of laughter from yes at the Salmond plans that little reality was being factored in.

If it had been, you'd have won. That's worth taking note of for next time (if there is one).

( & I hope to god they always will) & there wasn't much in the better together campaign for the idealist.

.... solidarity counts for nothing unless it's Scottish solidarity, yeah?

A (small) part of my reason for voting yes was that my younger son missed out on voting by 3 months. In my biassed opinion, he is not stupid & he supported Independence, Part of my vote was his vote.

And your vote might have cost him all hios opportunities in life - at least, opportunities in Scotland.

And the sad fact is it still might. It's probably not a good idea for you to look into the decline of Quebec.

[eFestivals]

Just put this on facebook

It'll help if everything comes back to reality.

Project McFear said that they'd be nothing for you today. Project McFear has already been proven as bollocks.

[zahidf]

Where have they come from ?

The vote was anonymous and there was no exit polls ?

Lord Ashcroft's polling company

Edited September 19, 2014 by zahidf

[LJS]

Piss off Neil

It really is not necessary to be so fucking argumentative all the time.

the real debate is over and I find it really really disappointing that after all this you continue to selectively slice what I say to suit your argument.

[eFestivals]

Piss off Neil

It really is not necessary to be so fucking argumentative all the time.

I'm sorry, i must have missed the bit where Salmond won and imposed his one-party state where any comment that's not fully-endorsing is banned.

Perhaps you could get last Saturday's BBC protest crowd outside my house tomorrow?

Everyone is welcome to comment here. Comments are allowed to piss people off - including me!

the real debate is over and I find it really really disappointing that after all this you continue to selectively slice what I say to suit your argument.

I've not selectively sliced anything.

I've made comments against your words, and nothing of those words jumps out as anything but a straight-taking of your words.

Feel free to tell me where i've taken the piss. Feel free to admit i didn't with your own further silence.

[russycarps]

Just put this on facebook

For those of us who voted yes, last night was obviously a disappointment but as is the way these days we are required to "take some positives" from it. Here is one which I suspect both sides will agree with. Never have our politicians been forced to work so hard for their money. Never have they had to spend so much time actually talking to real people. Let's see if we can keep them working that hard.

I'd have to disagree.

I wouldnt say the politicians have worked hard for the No victory at all. Quite the opposite in fact. There has been 1 year and 51 weeks of arrogantly sitting on their laurels doing nothing at all. Planning no strategy, not engaging at all.

Then there was one week of hard work and the win was secured.

Has there ever been a victory requiring less effort by the politicians?

Edited September 19, 2014 by russycarps

[Alcatraz]

Has there ever been a victory requiring less effort by the politicians?

Every seat UKIP have ever won

[LJS]

I'd have to disagree.

I wouldnt say the politicians have worked hard for the No victory at all. Quite the opposite in fact. There has been 1 year and 51 weeks of arrogantly sitting on their laurels doing nothing at all. Planning no strategy, not engaging at all.

Then there was one week of hard work and the win was secured.

Has there ever been a victory requiring less effort by the politicians?

Well funnily enough Russy, the view from Scotland is very different (the campaign took place here not in a little box in the corner of your living room) and there was unanimous agreement with me from folk on both sides up here ( & I don't just mean likes!)

[LJS]

I'm away for some fresh air.

This campaign is over. I really don't see the need to be so combative as we chew over the outcomes. As most of the guys posting at them moment are not in Scotland, I thought a little bit of perspective from here would be useful but it would seem most of you guys (Neil in particular) are interested in is petty point scoring and twisting & omitting peoples word's to distort their meaning

I'll leave you in your gentleman's club to toast the victory of the Tory led Uk government's campaign.

For myself I don't think this result leaves any part of the United(!) Kingdom any better off ... but then I am an idiot aren't I?

I will be silent for a while - if you are sad enough to interpret that as some sort of victory, you are very welcome to do so.

[russycarps]

Well funnily enough Russy, the view from Scotland is very different (the campaign took place here not in a little box in the corner of your living room) and there was unanimous agreement with me from folk on both sides up here ( & I don't just mean likes!)

you yourself have said several times how scarcely-planned, arrogant and unengaging the No campaign has been!!

There's nothing to toast here. Cameron has come out of this with enormous credit - and that's a disaster.

Edited September 19, 2014 by russycarps

[kaosmark2]

I'll leave you in your gentleman's club to toast the victory of the Tory led Uk government's campaign.

IMO this is one of the pettiest comments there's been in ages. It implies that anyone who believes No was the better result supports the current government.

[atomised]

My perception is that much of my knowledge on the referendum has come from this thread. Until a month or so ago people I speak to regularly were aware of it but not especially interested. I'd say the same went for the Westminster politicians.

The trigger seems to have been that one poll putting yes in the lead. Rightly or wrongly that does suggest the politicians on this side only broke sweat when forced into it

[sdvruxk]

All Salmond wanted was to be apart of history. A total berk!

[zahidf]

IMO this is one of the pettiest comments there's been in ages. It implies that anyone who believes No was the better result supports the current government.

Yeah, very odd. He should go to conservative home!

It's fascinating, but no one's died and no one's life is going to be ruined...

[eFestivals]

if you are sad enough to interpret that as some sort of victory, you are very welcome to do so.

I wrote a long post, then deleted it all. Perhaps the hangover will have subsided by tomorrow.