UK Politics

[fraybentos1]

another example is 2015 a big factor was the possibility of Labour-SNP coalition. Does the average voter sit awake at night worrying about that? No. But it still had an impact on how people voted. 

[Neil]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

You can't just discount everything as 'voters don't vote based on that' cause it suits your narrative.

I gave an example of a thing which massively impacted an election (paying for social care) when it is not a thing that you average joe thinks about every day. 

they didn't need to think about it, may announcing the policy put it in their face, and the likely financial impact onto them, was stark, and more than the tories had previously said. a focus on social care costs was a long running sore for the tories, and with so many older voters, it probably felt like a charge  that was imminent.

[Neil]

5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

another example is 2015 a big factor was the possibility of Labour-SNP coalition. Does the average voter sit awake at night worrying about that? No. But it still had an impact on how people voted. 

the snp clearly don't have the uk's best interests in what they do, and in a coalition they might cause the govt to do harmful things. tail wagging the dog. if you don't get why not having that  was important to some folk you don't get much about politics at all. 

Edited February 14 by Neil

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

they didn't need to think about it, may announcing the policy put it in their face, and the likely financial impact onto them, was stark, and more than the tories had previously said. a focus on social care costs was a long running sore for the tories, and with so many older voters, it probably felt like a charge  that was imminent.

Just like how people aren't thinking about the middle east as much until the conflict escalates, and it appears on the news.

or about inflation, until it got out of control and was all over the news 

or no one thinks about unemployment till it goes up and it's all over the news 

etc etc 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

the snp clearly don't have the uk's best interests in what they do, and in a coalition they might cause the govt to do harmful things. tail wagging the dog.

You're somehow managing to completely miss my point. 

You agree that that had an impact on the election result yes? And you surely don't think that you average voter is thinking about that day to day. Therefore- something seemingly 'minor' that most voters 'don't care about' suddenly impacted an election.

Ed Milliband eating a f**king bacon sandwich is still a meme 9 years later fs! little things add to a bigger package which influences voters 

[fred quimby]

5 minutes ago, Neil said:

they didn't need to think about it, may announcing the policy put it in their face, and the likely financial impact onto them, was stark, and more than the tories had previously said. a focus on social care costs was a long running sore for the tories, and with so many older voters, it probably felt like a charge  that was imminent.

Might be reading you wrong but that is what Fray is saying

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Just like how people aren't thinking about the middle east as much until the conflict escalates, and it appears on the news.

or about inflation, until it got out of control and was all over the news 

or no one thinks about unemployment till it goes up and it's all over the news 

etc etc 

people might want a new govt, but they can also not want nazi's in that govt.

[fred quimby]

10 minutes ago, Neil said:

the snp clearly don't have the uk's best interests in what they do, and in a coalition they might cause the govt to do harmful things. tail wagging the dog. if you don't get why not having that  was important to some folk you don't get much about politics at all. 

Again think you're actually agreeing

Edited February 14 by fred quimby

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

little things add to a bigger package which influences voters 

people liked corbyn's manifesto, but to a very large extent doubted his ability to deliver it. 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

people might want a new govt, but they can also not want nazi's in that govt.

I'm bailing out of this one now. No idea how you're failing to understand my point 

 

4 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

Might be reading you wrong but that is what Fray is saying

Neil would argue that black was white if it meant disagreeing with me unfortunately 

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

Again think you actually agreeing

in which case i'll leave it here.

[pink_triangle]

42 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

It's a daft argument. Most people spend minimal time thinking about almost everything. 

Most people spend little to no time thinking about social care but the dementia tax still had a massive negative impact on Theresa May's campaign

I don’t think it is a daft argument. My point is that the amount of discussion about Israel/palestine from people with an internet in politics/or discuss on social media/forums etc is way out of sync compared to priorities of the average person. People do think about social care as it will impact on many of us in the future and many of our families at present.

[steviewevie]

Just talking to someone from work, an asian woman from Rochdale who now lives in Cheshire...I asked what she thought about all this Rochdale news stuff, she didn't know what I was talking about, didn't know there was going to be a by-election there, nothing.

So there you go.

[pink_triangle]

46 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

wtf does influence how people vote then? If we are just dismissing everything we don't want to hear.

I mean obviously with some people it comes down to what leader they fancy more... but thats not the majority.

I think health, housing, employment, education. Many will vote for the leader they like and some will vote for change. I think Corbyn v Boris (as well as Brexit) who people wanted for PM played a big role. I think Starmer and Sunak may cancel each other out in this respect.

[fraybentos1]

most people don't care about by-elections but no doubt the result will give a party positive or negative headlines. When the lib dems were winning all those blue wall seats they got a poll boost. When Starmer was first leader and Labour lost that one that led to negative coverage and the opposite when they started winning them.

That said, the turnout is woeful at any of them

[mattiloy]

44 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Just talking to someone from work, an asian woman from Rochdale who now lives in Cheshire...I asked what she thought about all this Rochdale news stuff, she didn't know what I was talking about, didn't know there was going to be a by-election there, nothing.

So there you go.

Cool. So 0% turnout expected then.

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, pink_triangle said:

I think health, housing, employment, education. Many will vote for the leader they like and some will vote for change. I think Corbyn v Boris (as well as Brexit) who people wanted for PM played a big role. I think Starmer and Sunak may cancel each other out in this respect.

You're kind of proving my point that many people vote for different reasons and for some people (small amount granted) the middle east will be an issue (lib dems did well in 05 cause of their opposition to iraq for example) or climate change (becoming more topical each election).

 

Ultimately yes, it is likely that the 2024 election will be a cost of living focused one but there is no guarantee of that yet. Everyone thought 2017 would be a Brexit general election but to be honest it was not really the case

[Skip997]

I've no idea what influences who people vote for, because if it were health, education, finances etc, then there's no way the Tories would ever be elected.

I can only guess it's who is the funniest leader (Boris) or who eats a bacon sandwich "properly"

[Ozanne]

There will be lots of areas that voters care about when they about them in the news bits that doesn’t mean that all those areas are going to sway them in an election. They’ll be areas such as cost of living, NHS, schools etc and when the country is in the state that it’s in those things will take precedence over matters like the Middle East conflict. 

[pink_triangle]

41 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

You're kind of proving my point that many people vote for different reasons and for some people (small amount granted) the middle east will be an issue (lib dems did well in 05 cause of their opposition to iraq for example) or climate change (becoming more topical each election).

 

Ultimately yes, it is likely that the 2024 election will be a cost of living focused one but there is no guarantee of that yet. Everyone thought 2017 would be a Brexit general election but to be honest it was not really the case

It’s a load of little things that make a difference to their life. Israel/Palestine discussion is big on twitter with people interested in politics, but the wider public are not going to care what a labour prospective mp who they have never heard of, thinks of an issue that has no impact on their life. 
 

I think my main point is that this Israel/Palestine issue is one that has more traction on social media than the real world which skews perception of people who are in that world. Far more people care about their kids being able to afford a house even if it gets less likes and retweets.

 

[Ozanne]

27 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

It’s a load of little things that make a difference to their life. Israel/Palestine discussion is big on twitter with people interested in politics, but the wider public are not going to care what a labour prospective mp who they have never heard of, thinks of an issue that has no impact on their life. 
 

I think my main point is that this Israel/Palestine issue is one that has more traction on social media than the real world which skews perception of people who are in that world. Far more people care about their kids being able to afford a house even if it gets less likes and retweets.

 

Yeah exactly and most polling backs this up. If the country is falling apart then most will vote  with the party they believe can best fix that. 

[Ozanne]

 

[steviewevie]

26 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

outlier.

Also, SNP doing pretty well...Green with 2 seats, Reform 10% and no seats.

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

outlier.

Also, SNP doing pretty well...Green with 2 seats, Reform 10% and no seats.

Yeah I can’t see the SNP getting that many seats and the Greens getting more than 1 seat.

[steviewevie]

well with SNP there hasn't really been a drop in support for independence in Scotland, and Humza Yousaf seems to have done a pretty good job so far as I can tell...considering the shitshow that was going on when he took over..(but then again I don't follow Scottish politics at all and am only going off what he has been saying about Gaza).