The Weather Thread 2023

[briddj]

14 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

I think this is undercooking the trend of heavy(ish) rain coming in on Friday and the low pressure coming in pre-weekend. It misses us in this run but the location is meaningless this far out. So I'd say this is a downgrade on the last run and something to watch for.

It misses us though. That is the point.

 

[fightoffyour]

I've just burned the wellies that I didn't have

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

But those stats are useful for telling someone going to Glastonbury in approximately 1998 they would have a 50% chance of temps hitting 25+. Here in 2023 and going forward they don’t serve much purpose.

 Are you now saying we can't use past weather patterns to predict future ones? Was that your entire point?

In that case, yeah we'll have to agree to disagree. We've had a few hot summers in the UK - I absolutely *do* believe that's just a coincidence. You can go back through that data and find other runs of years where you have a bunch of pretty hot summers. It happens. It doesn't make it the norm. 

I know global warming is a thing, but that accounts for a degree or two. And yes, some people argue that certain knock on factors from that are what's leading to the UK's hot summers over the past few years and that this is the new normal. I actually don't believe that. If you do, then that explains the difference in where we are coming from, I think. I'm not dismissing it, it's an interesting idea, but I'm still of the opinion climate change is something happening more over decades than smaller time periods, and we're just happening to have warm summers.

[kerplunk]

49 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Early bad rain hopefully won't kill the initial vibes.

Tuesday/Wednesday pouring wouldn't be ideal.

The ideal for tuesday/wednesday is different to the rest of the weekend

 ideally there would would be the 'threat' of tuesday/wednesday downpours - this will make some people delay their journey, queue's will be easier. On wednesday ideally the rain would be minimal - just overcast such that queuing in the open isn't uncomfortable (because heavy rain or relentless sun) and the hauling of gear and setting up camp is completed with minimal persperation.

 

[Jose Pose]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 Are you now saying we can't use past weather patterns to predict future ones? Was that your entire point?

In that case, yeah we'll have to agree to disagree. We've had a few hot summers in the UK - I absolutely *do* believe that's just a coincidence. You can go back through that data and find other runs of years where you have a bunch of pretty hot summers. It happens. It doesn't make it the norm. 

I know global warming is a thing, but that accounts for a degree or two. And yes, some people argue that certain knock on factors from that are what's leading to the UK's hot summers over the past few years and that this is the new normal. I actually don't believe that. If you do, then that explains the difference in where we are coming from, I think. I'm not dismissing it, it's an interesting idea, but I'm still of the opinion climate change is something happening more over decades than smaller time periods, and we're just happening to have warm summers.

Hi Donald.

[BambooShanks]

5 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I've got to the point of a relaxed Zen attitude. Throw whatever you want at me, I'm ready.

It's a wonderful state of mind.

I've got footwear for all conditions, My waterproof poncho arrived yesterday and got clothes that will cope with all temps.

What's that Ray Mears quote? there's no such thing as poor weather, just poor clothing?

 

[fightoffyour]

1 hour ago, The Nal said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

Monday 19 Jun - Wednesday 28 Jun

Outbreaks of rain or showers, heavy and thundery at times, are likely to spread across many areas of the UK early next week. 

Through the week, showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely to continue

 

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

Hi Donald.

Sometimes, I forget how thick some people on eFests are.

But sure, you do you.

[chazwwe]

2 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Out of up votes 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

33 minutes ago, The Toxic Avenger said:

On page 149 of this thread, you were called a c**t.  The guy who called you a c**t was 'playing to the gallery,' i.e. the cowardly tactic of saying what you think will go down well with your audience.  He wasn't wrong: 5 forum regulars decided this was worthy of a thumbs-up.  It wasn't until he was called out on this that he backtracked with his Jeremy Clarkson 'it was only a joke' defence.

I'm genuinely pleased you don't feel bullied in this thread, but some of us spectators are finding the in-group/out-group bullshit a bit unpleasant.  The NFR NFC thing was born over a decade ago when some of then then-regulars of this forum were having a laugh knowingly portraying themselves as superstitious maniacs, i.e. it was self-deprecating humour.  Unfortunately, this throwaway line was turned into a deeply non-funny long-running trope, which attracted the genuinely hard-of-thinking who actually believe that one person's preferences for weather can actually be deemed selfish and punishable.  In years gone by the NFR NFC bullshit net was spread even wider: all of us using the 'science thread' (which is what this thread was referred to as) were called c**ts, and the current regular that did this was proudly unrepentant, even after being called out.

It's a shame you feel that way. In my opinion, the Glasto spirit is to just throw yourself in, it's a team effort. There is no 'in' group but you have to contribute to get the best out of it. I've always thought that about the festival itself, you can't just turn up and expect to be entertained...it doesn't work like that. You have to muck in with the strangers around you and become a part of it all to experience the magic. Of course there's old long running jokes, people have been here a long time and have made dear friends. I don't understand half of what everyones going on about, but there's lots of new faces and characters and jokes all the time. You just have to go with the flow and if you can't beat them join them. (And yes, I actually find the C word offensive in the post you're talking about.) But I understand the sentiment behind it...it's melodramatic weather thread again. So I ignore the particular language and see everyone as individual with individual tastes in their choice of language. 

Oh, and if you came here for serious weather chat. Definitely not the place. Maybe sign up to the ECM FSG WTF whatever they are called to get the weather updates directly.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Bike_Like_A_Mum

[Skip997]

1 minute ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

 I've always thought that about the festival itself, you can't just turn up and expect to be entertained...it doesn't work like that.

Correct

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 hour ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Unfortunately no can do. I am going to be in one of the Freezers in the co op

 

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

Hi Donald.

Do you actually remember what Trump's position on climate change was? 

"It's not happening because it's cold outside"
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/trump-revives-misleading-claim-its-cold-so-global-warming-isnt-real.html

One of us in this conversation has used data and statistics to make their point. The other one has said "well it's been warm the last few summers so it'll be warm this one and every future one because it's getting hotter".

You're actually using the exact Trumpian logic, just the other way around.

(Global warming is certainly increasing the severity of heat waves, though it's not understood why - thus the average temperature creeps up, but it's not having a huge impact on the number of days above X temperature - which is based on the local weather patterns)

[Jose Pose]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Sometimes, I forget how thick some people on eFests are.

But sure, you do you.

A climate change denier calls someone thick 😂 You couldn’t make it up. You’re completely ignoring stats from your own source to fit a weird narrative that claims the change isn’t happening.

Look at the graph below from your own source, what does it show happening to temps since 1970? Of course climate change is something that is more noticeable over decades, but the stats you used cover a period going back to 1990, that’s THREE decades ago. It’s 2023 now and we’ve probably had 11 days over 25 already this year.

Are you honestly going to look at the graph below and say you can’t see a trend?

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Jose Pose

[stopwn1981]

This thread really is a microcosm of society (and it’s breakdown) in 2023

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Can these two get a room...

[HyperTechnoHorse]

Bad run: "I don't like this run, it's an outlier"

Good run: "Wow I like this run! This is definitely NOT an outlier"

[p.pete]

11 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Sometimes, I forget how thick some people on eFests are.

But sure, you do you.

Don't worry about it - it amazes me how often interactions with Jose seem to break down into utter shite.

[The Toxic Avenger]

2 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

It's a shame you feel that way. In my opinion, the Glasto spirit is to just throw yourself in, it's a team effort. There is no 'in' group but you have to contribute to get the best out of it. I've always thought that about the festival itself, you can't just turn up and expect to be entertained...it doesn't work like that. You have to muck in with the strangers around you and become a part of it all to experience the magic. Of course there's old long running jokes, people have been here a long time and have made dear friends. I don't understand half of what everyones going on about, but there's lots of new faces and characters amd jokes all the time. You just have to go with the flow andnif you cant beat them join them. (And yes, I actually find the C word offensive in the post you're talking about.) But I understand the sentiment behind it...it's melodramatic weather thread again. So I ignore it and see everyone as individual with individual tastes in their choice of language. 

Oh, and if you came here for serious weather chat. Definitely not the place. Maybe sign up to the ECM FSG WTF whatever they are called to get the weather updates directly.

That's very accommodating of you.  Even though you, like me, find that word offensive, you 'understand the sentiment' when somebody is called a c**t for expressing their personal preference for weather.

The reason you can't see the in-group/out-group stuff is that you're involved in it - go back through the thread and look at how many condescending comments you've made to Fuzzy Dunlop.  I'm not saying that you didn't mean these things in jest, but context is everything - when someone's getting unfair grief from rent-a-mob then you need to think carefully about whether your contribution is helping.  If people like danbailey and Jose Pose didn't exist, then we could have nice things - i.e. a proper fun rain-haters v. heat-haters knockabout.  But when morons exist who actually want to attempt to bully someone for expressing their personal weather preference, we really ought to focus on telling them to f**k off.

[frostypaw]

7 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

trend?

Oh good so you agree this is fairly new? Then we can stop fighting over this and have sympathy for those who don't do so well in warm weather.

Weather thread back to normal. Good times runtime.

[Crazyfool01]

its certainly hot in here but its never too hot to dance badly .... 6 days to go and the farm looks incredible ... ive no doubt everyone will have an amazing festival despite the discussion / debate in here .

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Crazyfool01

[Gwladboy]

This all getting very boring, I’ll pop back later when normal service is resumed 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

1 minute ago, The Toxic Avenger said:

That's very accommodating of you.  Even though you, like me, find that word offensive, you 'understand the sentiment' when somebody is called a c**t for expressing their personal preference for weather.

The reason you can't see the in-group/out-group stuff is that you're involved in it - go back through the thread and look at how many condescending comments you've made to Fuzzy Dunlop.  I'm not saying that you didn't mean these things in jest, but context is everything - when someone's getting unfair grief from rent-a-mob then you need to think carefully about whether your contribution is helping.  If people like danbailey and Jose Pose didn't exist, then we could have nice things - i.e. a proper fun rain-haters v. heat-haters knockabout.  But when morons exist who actually want to attempt to bully someone for expressing their personal weather preference, we really ought to focus on telling them to f**k off.

I absolutely love Fuzzy for his differing opinion....

Oh lordy 

Have a lovely festival won't you

[Jose Pose]

7 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Don't worry about it - it amazes me how often interactions with Jose seem to break down into utter shite.

That’s a strange take, remind me again who said how thick some people on efests are? Was it me, oh no it was your mate Deano.

it’s such a tired old boys club in here.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Jose Pose

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

A climate change denier calls someone thick 😂 You couldn’t make it up. You’re completely ignoring stats form your own source to fit a weird narrative that claims the change isn’t happening.

Look at the graph below from your own source, what does it show happening to temps since 1970? Of course climate change is something that is more noticeable over decades, but the stats you see cover a period going back to 1990, that’s THREE decades ago. It’s 2023 now and we’ve probably had 11 days over 25 already this year.

Are you honestly going to look at the graph below and say you can’t see a trend?

Yes, there's a trend, you can see the dotted trend line in the middle, it's 1.5C hotter on average since 1970. Okay so a 6% increase in temperature. So maybe it's not 11 days anymore then. It's 11 days plus 6%. It's 11.66 days. Let's call it 12 for shits and giggles then. You got me. I was out by a day when equating for the global warming trend. That'll probably change my 48% chance of a festival day being over 25C to 50%. Which you'd already rounded it up to anyway.

Obviously the global increase in temperature is a thing that is happening. And we know what level of increase it is at. But the last few summers have been a lot more than 1.5C hotter than average, you can see the spikes on the graphs at the end there. But you can also see spikes in the mid 70s, the mid 90s and the mid 00s, before it drops right back down again.

There are many points in that graph where we have had a few hot summers in a row. It doesn't mean that we're going to have that, forever more, and it'll neve spike down again. Like you said "cant you see a trend?" - you can literally see the trend on that graph, it's a dotted line. And that trend is well below the spikes of most of the summers from the past few years. The spikes are just local weather patterns. They are not global warming. It's exact what that graph shows.