Weather thread 2015

[chief_scrutter]

 

The trend is finally pointing downwards!

from a statistics point of view, the lunacy of the forecasts on the 16th means that it will probably be pointing downwards until next Tuesday

[aye up]

Torrential rain over the site (ie pissing down big time) on Monday...the rest of the week ok ...bit of patchy rain on Thursday, nowt special...so contractors/security/random man in jester hat...stay off the camping grounds...ta

 

The end.

[jonodillieono]

The trend is finally pointing downwards!

so to get this right the very very worst reports from a weather site today is predicting less than half as much mm of rain as last year?

And the average of all the reports are expecting less than a 7th of the total rain of last year? (How many mms was there last year btw? Im just working on 35mm as the lower bound)

Edited June 19, 2015 by jonodillieono

[justperfect]

If we could just get it a touch further down towards the level set in 2013 I'd be a very happy chappie

[math125]

4-2, guess who

Edited June 19, 2015 by math125

[pedmills]

from a statistics point of view, the lunacy of the forecasts on the 16th means that it will probably be pointing downwards until next Tuesday

 a valid point - for the next one I'll just do a trend for the last three days. It's currently pointing downwards for that too.

[Brave Sir Robin]

so to get this right the very very worst reports from a weather site today is predicting less than half as much mm of rain as last year?

And the average of all the reports are expecting less than a 7th of the total rain of last year? (How many mms was there last year btw? Im just working on 35mm as the lower bound)

I like your perspective. We now need the Nal to tell us that these predictions are in fact horrific.

[A Guy Called Matt]

I like your perspective. We now need the Nal to tell us that these predictions are in fact horrific.

 

I am sure he knows - it is only a matter of time before he sorts out a sub and tells him to let the team know we are fucked.

[FuzzyDunlop]

So, the bloke who works for the met office says we are fucked, but Phil Jones says it's a draw.

Is this the crux of it?

[Starchild771]

Weather is looking lovely on the cam right now: 

 

http://glastocam.panomax.com/

 

*waves to everyone working putting Glastonbury together.

[Mark it Zero!]

The crux of it is It's gonna be a belter, I know it!

 

I'll be cracking out the old sign again.

 

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/5047-2010/

[Brave Sir Robin]

At this stage last year predictions were all for 5-6mm of rain over the fest: http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/?p=4413119. Not one forecast was anywhere near what actually happened. It's almost as if they are unable to predict the weather.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

At this stage last year predictions were all for 5-6mm of rain over the fest: http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/?p=4413119. Not one forecast was anywhere near what actually happened. It's almost as if they are unable to predict the weather.

 

yeah this whole experience last year wasn't too good. Lots of false hope...expecting something similar to 2013....pretty much got the opposite.

[Pbird81]

Bbc now showing dry and sun saturday

http://m.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648559

 

That's for Glastonbury though - festival's in Pilton and it's still saying cloudy for that.... 

 

No rain though....

 

This is like being 0-2 up against (Fergie-era) United at OT at half-time.... dreading how things will change second half

[A Guy Called Matt]

That's for Glastonbury though - festival's in Pilton and it's still saying cloudy for that.... 

 

No rain though....

 

This is like being 0-2 up against (Fergie-era) United at OT at half-time.... dreading how things will change second half

 

Agreed.

 

I just can't understand why the BBC showed what they did in the week ahead thing last night and yet their day by day shows more or less the opposite.........

 

Unless of course they simply have no idea.

[Aphex's twin]

My first two trip s to Glastonbury were 97 (with just trainers and black bags for footwear) & 98 and I gladly returned every year but 2007 really tested that resolve.

 

It jut felt so relentless and everything was just so awful. I still remember walking along the track thinking I don't think I can do this anymore.

 

When ticket day came around I was back on the horse and i've yet to miss one. So even when you are right in it and it feels awful come October you'll still be desperate to join the scramble no matter what the weather was like.

[tazbang]

so to get this right the very very worst reports from a weather site today is predicting less than half as much mm of rain as last year?

And the average of all the reports are expecting less than a 7th of the total rain of last year? (How many mms was there last year btw? Im just working on 35mm as the lower bound)

 

Misery is not just measured in mm.

 

2011 for instance had significantly less mm than 2014 but was a whole load muddier. There is temperature and persistence to consider. A brief tropical downpour is a lot easier to survive than a constant cold drizzle.

[SonOfTroyMcClure]

Misery is not just measured in mm.

 

2011 for instance had significantly less mm than 2014 but was a whole load muddier. There is temperature and persistence to consider. A brief tropical downpour is a lot easier to survive than a constant cold drizzle.

 

and the ground conditions beforehand. I believe the weather in the weeks and months before the 2011 festival wasn't great/the site had taken on a lot of water. Heavy rain on Wednesday of the festival plus 130,000+ arriving on site finally turned the whole thing into a mudbath. Amazing turnaround though - I was back to wearing trainers and getting sunburnt on the Sunday.

[Peroni]

its still all to play for... bit a change in the wind and the 4 sunny days planned for after the festival (according to accuweather) may still hit us fingers crossed....

[pedmills]

so to get this right the very very worst reports from a weather site today is predicting less than half as much mm of rain as last year?

And the average of all the reports are expecting less than a 7th of the total rain of last year? (How many mms was there last year btw? Im just working on 35mm as the lower bound)

 

The figure I have for 2014 is 44mm. If that is accurate then the maximum on the tuesday before the festival was closest:

 

To one decimal place...

2014's 44mm is 2.3x the final mean of 19.5mm, and 1x the final maximum of 42.6mm.

2013's 4.1mm is 1.6x the final mean of 2.6mm, and 0.7x the final maximum of 6mm.

The average of 2.3 and 1.6 is 2, and the average of 1 and 0.7 is 0.9.

 

So based on (two) previous years, the actual rainfall ends up being double the mean and near the maximum of the website forecasts.

Edited June 19, 2015 by pedmills

[siblin]

I love your charts pedmills, but I would suggest the trend line is meaningless - it suggests tomorrows forecast is more likely to follow the trend of previous days forecasts.  This simply isn't the case and if it was the the forecasters would already have mitigated for that!  They believe that tomorrows predicted rainfall should be the same as todays.

 

We do love to try to see trends in these graphs, and in retrospect we often can, but as a prediction tool it doesn't work.

 

Do you happen to have the underlying data table for the last few days as was seen on last years graphs? or is it too much data now?

[The Nal]

At this stage last year predictions were all for 5-6mm of rain over the fest: http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/183856-weather/?p=4413119. Not one forecast was anywhere near what actually happened. It's almost as if they are unable to predict the weather.

 

None of the forecasts within an asses roar of what we actually got.

[Gnomicide]

In your face, so called Bill! If that is your real name.

[The Nal]

Yep, we've found you out for what you really are Bill

 

[pedmills]

I love your charts pedmills, but I would suggest the trend line is meaningless - it suggests tomorrows forecast is more likely to follow the trend of previous days forecasts.  This simply isn't the case and if it was the the forecasters would already have mitigated for that!  They believe that tomorrows predicted rainfall should be the same as todays.

 

We do love to try to see trends in these graphs, and in retrospect we often can, but as a prediction tool it doesn't work.

 

Do you happen to have the underlying data table for the last few days as was seen on last years graphs? or is it too much data now?

 

I do mostly agree with you, although some websites update more frequently or at different times to others. So a decrease in one site one day might predict a decrease in a (slower-to-update) site the next. Also, trends do appear, between the 13th and the morning of the 16th the forecasts were getting worse and worse, as was the case for the last few days last year.