Weather

[Trebor]

We haven't had a decent summer since 05/06, hasn't it been responsible for every summer since then?

[fur_q]

It certainly now looks like we're in for a wet May but ATM there are more promising signs for the early part of June (the latest period most long range forecasts are currently running to).

Remember that most journalists writing up the forecasts are looking for an 'angle' make it into news, i.e. "summer will be a washout".

Better to look at what meteorologists are saying and ignore the papers.

The met office updated their long range forecast this morning

The weather continues to keep a spring-like feel with sunshine and showers the name of the game in most areas. However, an area of high pressure looks set to build over Scandinavia towards the end of May. This will allow easterly winds to develop and force temperatures over the UK to take a tumble. This looks likely to continue into early June with rain bands threatening the south and the east of the UK while the north and west fair better.

Monday 13 MaySunday 19 May

Is April set to make a return?

Unfortunately, the warm spring sunshine we saw at the start of last week looks like it has left the UK for the coming week at least with temperatures expected to be feeling below average for this time of year. This will bring the risk of ground frosts in northern rural locations. The coming week looks like it will remain unfriendly with rain for most and temperatures feeling chilly for this time of year. Showers look set to continue over much of the country with the best of the drier and brighter spells in the north and west. From time to time showery rain may turn more persistent bringing wetter spells, especially over south east England where things could turn a little thundery.

Monday 20 MaySunday 26 May

Showers continuing for most

It looks like the remainder of May will probably continue in the same vein. The April-like showery spell will be with us to start the week, but it will slowly lose its grip as high pressure builds over Scandinavia to provide a gradual improvement in some areas. Showers will continue to plague the UK for most of the period progressively become less frequent. There is also the possibility of more persistent bands of rain moving into the east and south of the UK later in the period as the high pressure continues to build over Scandinavia. Temperatures initially will be feeling near to average for this time of year giving highs in the mid to high teens so feeling pleasant in drier spells.

Monday 27 MaySunday 9 June

June is arriving; is summer arriving too?

Drier and brighter conditions look set for the start of June though there will be some cloud and rain around. Unfortunately temperatures look like they will be little disappointing hovering slightly below average for this time of year especially in the south where it could be described as distinctly cool. However, there is a chance things could warm up later in the period. Sheltered western parts of Scotland look like they could be seeing the best of the weather during this period with plenty of sunshine and largely dry.

Edited May 13, 2013 by fur_q

[Pinhead]

It'll be cold at night this year I reckon. Pack those jumpers / coats.

[William of Walworth]

'Sheltered West of Scotland' (as mentioned in the above Met Office update) is the very last thing I'd favour. We want the Jet to track North, and any Low Pressure influence also to track North and leave nowhere south of Glasgow affected ... sorry Scots!

(Last year the far N/NW of Scotland had a fair amount of fine weather in the summer, at the expense of the rest of us)

Edited May 13, 2013 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

It'll be cold at night this year I reckon. Pack those jumpers / coats.

Edited May 13, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Wooderson]

*Looks out the window at hailstones bucketing down*

Its gonna piss rain folks.

[Jie Bie]

'Sheltered West of Scotland' (as mentioned in the above Met Office update) is the very last thing I'd favour. We want the Jet to track North, and any Low Pressure influence also to track North and leave nowhere south of Glasgow affected ... sorry Scots!

(Last year the far N/NW of Scotland had a fair amount of fine weather in the summer, at the expense of the rest of us)

[eoinca]

It'll be cold at night this year I reckon. Pack those jumpers / coats.

[scmusic]

See this Met Office blog for some potentially reassuring news. Basically don't believe the jet stream hype:

The jet stream and why it’s too early to write-off summer

[rexclark]

It was freezing at night in 2010 as well though.

[Trebor]

Me neither, in fact of all the years I've been I don't recall ever getting away with still wearing shorts I'm the early hours apart from that year!

[Trebor]

See this Met Office blog for some potentially reassuring news. Basically don't believe the jet stream hype:

The jet stream and why its too early to write-off summer

[William of Walworth]

For some possible? reassurance about the jet not necessarily being so southerly and dominant in the UK this year, perhaps, click this nice looking link :

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=170871

It's for next week, but it reminds us that changes can be rapid in the models, and not always for the worse!

(The 'Model Output discussion' thread on Netweather is very active and often worth a glance, for the technically/synoptically minded at least!)

Edited May 13, 2013 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

High Pressure is good! Means warmth at this time of the year, often sunshine, strong areas of High Pressure provide as good rainkillers as you can get.

Synoptic charts :

High Pressure with widely spaced lines and yellows/reds : nice

Low Pressure with closely packed lines with blues and greens : not so nice

If it really does start to warm up as early as next week and if the trend broadly continues into June (as JACKONE's been suggesting it MIGHT, so far, but wait for his next updates ...), then we may be able soon to start some tentative hopes going,

Fingers crossed though ... all too early to say so far ... etc etc

Edited May 13, 2013 by William of Walworth

[caroldecker]

^^^ This seems optimistic! Hurraaaaaaay!

[gooner1990]

I didn't find it cold at all at night in 2010. I normally have to go put a pair of jeans on late at night but in 2010 I was still ok with shorts on at 4am.

[Midnight Man]

High Pressure is good! Means warmth at this time of the year, often sunshine, strong areas of High Pressure provide as good rainkillers as you can get.

Synoptic charts :

High Pressure with widely spaced lines and yellows/reds : nice

Low Pressure with closely packed lines with blues and greens : not so nice

If it really does start to warm up as early as next week and if the trend broadly continues into June (as JACKONE's been suggesting it MIGHT, so far, but wait for his next updates ...), then we may be able soon to start some tentative hopes going,

Fingers crossed though ... all too early to say so far ... etc etc

[ErnestWorthing]

Those Coechellans don't know how lucky they are (though admittedly the chance of a sandstorm at Glastonbury is slight).

[Thearg]

The weather at coachella is terrible. You can't camp, for one. The sun rises at around 6 am, and by 6:30 am it's impossible to be in a tent as it's too hot. You then have to spend 5 hours looking for shade, which rapidly vanishes as it gets closer to midday. Eventually you can then enter the arena, where you spend the day trying to keep cool, hide in the misting tent, eat ice cream. I know it looks idyllic in photographs but it's far too hot.

[ghandi]

Relax it and all will be ok, this coming from the most pesimistic person i know Just think about those people going to IOW at the end of this month!

[briddj]

Bennicassims the same,we got back to our tents at about 8am and it was impossible to sleep and finding shade was a problem.

After 3 days of having about an hours sleep a day I finally passed out on a chair in a cafe and my other half knocked my pint all over me,I didn't stir I was so tired.

[Funkungfusion]

Jackone has posted his latest report! All in all looks pretty decent to me....I think And why is this thread buried away down the pages?? *Bumped*

[jeffie]

Jackone has posted his latest report! All in all looks pretty decent to me....I think And why is this thread buried away down the pages?? *Bumped*

[fur_q]

Jackone has posted his latest report! All in all looks pretty decent to me....I think And why is this thread buried away down the pages?? *Bumped*

[jeffie]

More good than bad from that I'd say, but could still do with improving a little.

The good thing is that at present the long range models are mostly saying the same, positive things, which is a good thing in terms of confidence in the forecast.

As for the thread slipping off the first page, I would rather this thread remained for discussion of actual forecasts and the other wether stuff stayed in other threads. That may mean at this stage that this thread slips off page 1 but at least it stays relevant.

Edited May 17, 2013 by jeffie