UK Politics

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Just got first Reform leaflet through the door. Had quite a few from Labour so far, none from other parties.

[steviewevie]

 

Greens could be on for winning those 4 target seats.

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

If we're playing leaflet bingo, Labour have been aggressive, with something like 6/7 things. Must be confident that my seat (Tory since 1970) is a possible target. Lib Dems and Reform each sent something. Tories, Greens and the independent candidate in my seat AFAIK are yet to send anything.

[LJS]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Are these  polls actually from polling in the constituencies? or are they just extrapolating from National polls?

[steviewevie]

33 minutes ago, LJS said:

Are these  polls actually from polling in the constituencies? or are they just extrapolating from National polls?

I think actual polling.

 

Polling — JLP (jlpartners.co.uk)

 

https://jlpartners.co.uk/s/Final-Clacton-Tables-ykn5.xlsx

[steviewevie]

enjoy

 

[Neil]

4 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

If Farage wins his seat and is either alone or one of just a couple he might well defect to the Tories and then run for leader. Depends who is still in the Tories but Braverman, Truss and others would back him

i think he'll run for tory leader as long as he's elected, cos he'd beat any other candidate.

[Neil]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Just got first Reform leaflet through the door. Had quite a few from Labour so far, none from other parties.

for me, just labour so far, i've seen its kicked off again in Bristol for the green's over-leafleting.

[Neil]

12 hours ago, clarkete said:

 

Eh?

just what i said, will happen if he becomes an mp (cos he needs to be an mp to be tory leader); hes got a big personal grudge against the tories and will enjoy destroying them!.N he literally owns reform, so if he merged that with the tories, he steals everything they have.

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, Neil said:

i think he'll run for tory leader as long as he's elected, cos he'd beat any other candidate.

first he has to become a tory MP, then he has to be voted for by tory MPs.

I still can't see it happening. I think bigger chance of Johnson coming back in a few years.

[steviewevie]

but if he does become leader and then PM we can blame the dumbarse voters of Clacton.

[Ryan1984]

2 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

The Tories are not daft and they see how Farage is oddly popular and all they care about is being in power and see him as that chance of it being sooner rather than later. Truss and Braverman have already been courting him in public so likely even more so behind the scenes.

Braverman is not popular at all and the party knows she would likely not win an election - and for all too many members she is the wrong colour anyway whereas Farage is the right colour for them.

He’s also the ‘right’ gender for a few of the members.

[clarkete]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Farage in yougov top trumps

 

But there's a huge leap from being a person who said they were going to destroy the tories and is despised and distrusted by a huge quantity, to being a leader of a party with an estimated 6 seats and then running for and winning the leadership of the tories.

We've had tons of folks that were considered their likely leader in the last decade who didn't win for one reason or another...and they were in the party.

[steviewevie]

16 minutes ago, clarkete said:

 

But there's a huge leap from being a person who said they were going to destroy the tories and is despised and distrusted by a huge quantity, to being a leader of a party with an estimated 6 seats and then running for and winning the leadership of the tories.

We've had tons of folks that were considered their likely leader in the last decade who didn't win for one reason or another...and they were in the party.

yeah, but Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

[LJS]

39 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

He’s also the ‘right’ gender for a few of the members.

and colour

[steviewevie]

I mean...who knows. The populist right is doing well in lots of places...look at France, Italy and Germany (actually AfD aren't really populist, they're just hard right). Look at Trump in US. So it isn't impossible that we will end up with Farage as leader of the Tories, and then in 2029 when things are sh*t and everyone hates Starmer...suddenly we could be looking at the prospect of him becoming PM.

Personally I think it is a lot more unlikely than likely. He'll probably win his seat but will just end up being ignored on the back seats along with Galloway and Corbyn. Problem is though the media love Farage...so he could end up being in the news a lot. I just don't think moderate Tories will let him in. I can imagine a move to Bring Back Boris.

Edited June 24, 2024 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

[pink_triangle]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

first he has to become a tory MP, then he has to be voted for by tory MPs.

I still can't see it happening. I think bigger chance of Johnson coming back in a few years.

You would think it would be hard for him to get Tory membership. Why would those in influence let him in. Also I would assume if there is a vacancy it will mean most of his allies in the Tory party are gone.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

You would think it would be hard for him to get Tory membership. Why would those in influence let him in. Also I would assume if there is a vacancy it will mean most of his allies in the Tory party are gone.

I mean, it is difficult for them...their vote is split. They could go further to right, but then lose more of the centristy liberal tories...and visa versa. They need PR.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

The Tories are not daft and they see how Farage is oddly popular and all they care about is being in power and see him as that chance of it being sooner rather than later. Truss and Braverman have already been courting him in public so likely even more so behind the scenes.

Braverman is not popular at all and the party knows she would likely not win an election - and for all too many members she is the wrong colour anyway whereas Farage is the right colour for them.

 

Puce?