The Weather Thread 2024

[kemosabe]

f**k.

[Guest]

Anyone bringing a canoe this year?

[mr mister]

So obviously predicting the weather weeks out is a nonsense , and this thread is a bit of fun in the main...

 

But... what's the general consensus on the day that sh*t gets real.

 

In the next 5 days leading to gates open, which is the 'oh, ok, this is actually happening' day? in terms of the weather being 95% locked in.

 

Is it still all to play for until, say, Sunday/ Monday?

[Colorblindjames]

Apple weather looks good, which is actually bad news as it’s always wrong. 

[The Nal]

People reading the forecasts this morning

 

[Thunderstruck]

I've just had a look at the metoffice Ensembles - they have there own set just like the other global models (GFS and ECMWF)

 

Main Points -

 

They show good agreement until 26 June for the development of the widely settled, warm period.

 

The ensembles diverge around 25 into 26 June as the trough development is not resolved. They clearly show a wide range of solutions for handling the early festival period (27 June) with a few big rainfall spikes > 20 mm indicating the thunderstorm risk most likely.

 

Others don't become as unsettled and a good number have very little rainfall at all.

 

All ensembles indicate post 27 show a recovery in pressure.

 

My money is on the shower risk Thursday but things quite rapidly improving into the festival weekend.

[Physical_graffiti]

So to summarise, basically we're still in the stage of......it could literally be anything. I know people need certainty in life but sorry, we're gonna have to live with this total uncertainty for now! And 'it could be anything' in June is better than 'it could be anything' in november, so basic maths means it's probably gonna be nice x

 

 

[Jacko45]

4 minutes ago, Acid_Haze said:

Maybe this is a good sign. Usually weather predictions are wrong at this stage. So it's a good thing it isn't predicting sun now, because it'd definitely change to rain by Wednesday 🙂

 

Last year at this stage they were exactly how it turned out sadly.

 

SURELY there's one out there giving a lovely finger? 

[Physical_graffiti]

3 minutes ago, mr mister said:

So obviously predicting the weather weeks out is a nonsense , and this thread is a bit of fun in the main...

 

But... what's the general consensus on the day that sh*t gets real.

 

In the next 5 days leading to gates open, which is the 'oh, ok, this is actually happening' day? in terms of the weather being 95% locked in.

 

Is it still all to play for until, say, Sunday/ Monday?

yes, and all to play for after then too! By Monday you can make a fairly decent stab at wednesday's weather

[eatingglitter]

We need Countryfile

[sedra]

24 minutes ago, eatingglitter said:

I've got two pairs of waterproof walking boots, waterproof trousers, waterproof poncho, waterproof rain jacket...

 

Do I add one more offering to the rain gods and order some decent wellies as well? 

Stick a pair of wellies in for good luck

[casablancakiwi]

9 minutes ago, Colorblindjames said:

Apple weather looks good, which is actually bad news as it’s always wrong. 

 

 I was once in the UAE, 40 odd degrees, the Apple weather app said it was raining.

Edited June 21, 2024 by casablancakiwi

[sedra]

So basically- it could be dry/wet/dry/ hot/warm/cool/cold/ damp 

Business as usual in the UK. 

 

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, sedra said:

So basically- it could be dry/wet/dry/ hot/warm/cool/cold/ damp 

Business as usual in the UK. 

 

 

Just about sums it up!

 

I tend to agree with the met office assessment though - the period is more likely to remain warm and settled vs some monster breakdown to cold and rain.

[Jacko45]

11 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I've just had a look at the metoffice Ensembles - they have there own set just like the other global models (GFS and ECMWF)

 

Main Points -

 

They show good agreement until 26 June for the development of the widely settled, warm period.

 

The ensembles diverge around 25 into 26 June as the trough development is not resolved. They clearly show a wide range of solutions for handling the early festival period (27 June) with a few big rainfall spikes > 20 mm indicating the thunderstorm risk most likely.

 

Others don't become as unsettled and a good number have very little rainfall at all.

 

All ensembles indicate post 27 show a recovery in pressure.

 

My money is on the shower risk Thursday but things quite rapidly improving into the festival weekend.

 

 

 

[steviewevie]

Not going but forecast looks alright to me...some rain but not a deluge, not too sunny, and good temperatures.

[ibilly99]

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?

[Stu H]

oh God, we're going to have an awful time. I might sell my ticket.

[Physical_graffiti]

Some vaguely interesting pages about accuracy of forecasts on Met Office site. Thought this sentence was particularly interesting - "Over the past 12 months 92% of our three hourly temperature forecasts have been accurate to within ± 2 °C on the current day."

 

So basically, even on the day, 8% of their 3 hourly predictions AREN'T accurate.

 

They also say the 1-2 day forecast is the detailed forecast for towns/specific areas, 3-5 day forecast is a general regional prediction, and 6-15 day broad UK predictions.

 

So we're essentially currently moving into pin the tail on the donkey territory for the wednesday.

 

From this I can only conclude - scorchio.

About our forecasts - Met Office

[ibilly99]

We are all deluded fanatics anyway so pre-festival we might as well just dream that it will be perfect - we are all dead in the long run anyway. I shall buy a gallon of suncream and a water gun to help out the people. Michael is on record that he likes wet ones as people move around more and see more as they are not lounging out in the sun enjoying music wafting over and can't be arsed to move on.

[Tiesto13]

6 minutes ago, ibilly99 said:

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?

a realistic best case scenario is that there is zero rain and we have nice warm but not too hot temperatures.

 

That’s not the most likely outcome but it’s as reasonable a possibility as loads of rain/freezing cold temperatures.

 

Most likely is probably that it will be low 20’s with a bit of rain around.

[tomf3]

Pretty sure when I looked yesterday, today was meant to be wet all day, and now it's sunny and the forecast is clear all day with a tiny bit of rain tonight.

[AdrianH]

16 minutes ago, ibilly99 said:

What is a realistic best case scenario - there will be some rain , it won't be biblical and the site will shake it off ? Is there a 50/50 for that ?

 

Heavier rain misses the site Wednesday and we get a warm up towards the weekend. Feasible just about.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Every year the worst bit of this thread is when the models don't look good, loads of people come in a) posting positive images of their favorite weather app based on outdated runs or b) saying 'cheer up, it's Glastonbury, don't let the weather affect you'. Cheers, I've been going for a quarter of a century, it'll obviously still be good but I'll tell you for nowt it's much better when you can sit down and wear trainers 😂

 

I'm choosing to believe that the last 48 hours of modeling is just going make the weekend switch back to dry and sunny all the more delicious. 

Edited June 21, 2024 by Glasto Weatherwatch

[Thunderstruck]

13 minutes ago, Physical_graffiti said:

Some vaguely interesting pages about accuracy of forecasts on Met Office site. Thought this sentence was particularly interesting - "Over the past 12 months 92% of our three hourly temperature forecasts have been accurate to within ± 2 °C on the current day."

 

So basically, even on the day, 8% of their 3 hourly predictions AREN'T accurate.

 

They also say the 1-2 day forecast is the detailed forecast for towns/specific areas, 3-5 day forecast is a general regional prediction, and 6-15 day broad UK predictions.

 

So we're essentially currently moving into pin the tail on the donkey territory for the wednesday.

 

From this I can only conclude - scorchio.

About our forecasts - Met Office

 

That's the mad thing about weather forecasting - you're literally trying to see into the future and that's fecking hard to do.

 

Genuinely your conclusion isn't even off the table at the moment.