The Weather Thread 2023

[Jose Pose]

7 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Average UK high temperature in June is 18C, July is 20C, August 19C.

On average, between 1991 and 2020, the UK saw just 11 days per year with max temp at 25C and above. (https://www.preventionweb.net/news/met-office-review-uks-record-breaking-summer-2022)

I can't find the stats but I suspect we have just as many summer days of heavy rain.

So 25C is abnormally hot. It does happen, but then so do days of heavy rain, they're both just as uncommon.

That’s a bizarre take, do you not understand what the word average means? How do you think you arrive at an average of 18 over a month? By having temperatures of varying degrees either side of it.

25 degrees every day of course isn’t normal, but to hit 25+ a few times in a summer month would be entirely normal, again, that’s how you end up with an average.

How else do you explain each of every one of the last festivals since 2016 having at least one day above 25? Do you think it was some freak coincidence? Or over any given 5 days in BST, something that is highly probable, and hence why it has happened in each of those festivals?

Do you not think those 11 days over 25 are likely to fall in summer, which spans three months, which strangely enough covers June? 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Jose Pose

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

5 minutes ago, Joshuwarr said:

What's funny is a hint of a sprinkle in the run up feels like the end of the world, yet when you're there I find most of us tend to just stick on a coat and crack on if its just a drizzle. It's really going to be fine and I CANNOT wait.

I actually enjoy putting my poncho on in rain and giving the two finger salute to the clouds above. You shall not curtail my fun!*

 

 

Only in light to moderate drizzle. Not if it's shellacking it down, downpouring, chucking it down, pissing it down, tipping it down, raining cats and dogs, bucketing it down, or f**king it down. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by MEGATRONICMEATWAGON

[marktea]

6 minutes ago, Littlechef87 said:

so why the f**k is everyone arguing?

It’s the weather thread!! ☀️

[The Nal]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

Monday 19 Jun - Wednesday 28 Jun

Outbreaks of rain or showers, heavy and thundery at times, are likely to spread across many areas of the UK early next week. 

Through the week, showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely to continue

 

[FuzzyDunlop]

31 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

But surely you can see the fact that there has been, at the very least, one day of each of the last festivals since 2016 that to you are unbearable or unmanageable is not some sort of weird unexplained phenomenon? They are simply par for the course and to be entirely expected for summer time.

At no point have I said any different though. All I have said is that I'd rather it be cooler. I'm not saying it shouldn't happen. 

 

[DeanoL]

Just now, Jose Pose said:

How else do you explain each of every one of the last festivals since 2016 having at least one day above 25? Do you think it was some freak coincidence? Or over any given 5 days in BST, something that is highly probable, and hence why it has happened in each of those festivals?

Yes, it was a freak coincidence. 

Like I say, in the average year you get 11 days of temperatures over 25C. 

f**k it, I'll do the maths for you. We're assuming an even distribution of hot days because I don't have the stats to do it by month. So 11 hot days in 92. 12% chance of any given day being that hot. So 48% chance of getting one day above 25C.

A coin flip, basically.

On the other hand, in June we average 12 days of rain. So a 40% chance of rain on any given day, making a 78% chance that it rains at least once over the five days.

Yet somehow the people hoping for no rain are being realistic and the guy hoping for no hot days is being ridiculous.

 

[Jose Pose]

Just now, DeanoL said:

Yes, it was a freak coincidence. 

Like I say, in the average year you get 11 days of temperatures over 25C. 

f**k it, I'll do the maths for you. We're assuming an even distribution of hot days because I don't have the stats to do it by month. So 11 hot days in 92. 12% chance of any given day being that hot. So 48% chance of getting one day above 25C.

A coin flip, basically.

On the other hand, in June we average 12 days of rain. So a 40% chance of rain on any given day, making a 78% chance that it rains at least once over the five days.

Yet somehow the people hoping for no rain are being realistic and the guy hoping for no hot days is being ridiculous.

 

Lol so you’ve basically just contradicted yourself? So there is actually a 50% chance of getting a 25+ degree day at Glastonbury, so in other words entirely normal and to be expected? What exactly was your point again? 

[StePotts]

7 minutes ago, The Nal said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

Monday 19 Jun - Wednesday 28 Jun

Outbreaks of rain or showers, heavy and thundery at times, are likely to spread across many areas of the UK early next week. 

Through the week, showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely to continue

 

The website gov.uk means this is totally unreliable and you should expect the exact opposite.

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

Like I say, in the average year you get 11 days of temperatures over 25C. 

 

 

Think we've already hit that this year in Glasgow. Glasgow! and it's only mid june

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

Lol so you’ve basically just contradicted yourself? So there is actually a 50% chance of getting a 25+ degree day at Glastonbury, so in other words entirely normal and to be expected? What exactly was your point again? 

Less than 50%. There will be more festivals when there isn't one than when there is.

My point was you should stop bullying people to be honest. Telling someone who doesn't like the heat that it's bound to be really hot is no different to telling people who don't like the rain that it's going to be a mudbath. The difference is at least The Nal knows he's doing it on purpose.

Edited June 15, 2023 by DeanoL

[Sheffield Steve]

We certainly aren’t out of the woods regarding Wednesday.  GFS has light showers but other models predict much more rain for setup day.

The Met Office’s own European model has more widespread rain with the threat of some heavier stuff not far away:

And the Canadian GEM model brings a more significant area of rain up from the south for the afternoon and evening:

 

The models are struggling for the early part of the festival.  But are coming into agreement on a fine festival weekend at least…

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Less than 50%. There will be more festivals when there isn't one than when there is.

My point was you should stop bullying people to be honest. Telling someone who doesn't like the heat that it's bound to be really hot is no different to telling people who don't like the rain that it's going to be a mudbath. The difference is at least The Nal knows he's doing it on purpose.

Mid 20s isn't 'really hot' in the middle of summer though is the point. 35 is really hot in the UK, mid 20s isnt- its normal 

[Jacko45]

Early bad rain hopefully won't kill the initial vibes.

Tuesday/Wednesday pouring wouldn't be ideal.

[Jacko45]

3 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

We certainly aren’t out of the woods regarding Wednesday.  GFS has light showers but other models predict much more rain for setup day.

The Met Office’s own European model has more widespread rain with the threat of some heavier stuff not far away:

And the Canadian GEM model brings a more significant area of rain up from the south for the afternoon and evening:

 

The models are struggling for the early part of the festival.  But are coming into agreement on a fine festival weekend at least…

 

Steve is back. 

[FuzzyDunlop]

Just now, DeanoL said:

Less than 50%. There will be more festivals when there isn't one than when there isn't.

My point was you should stop bullying people to be honest. Telling someone who doesn't like the heat that it's bound to be really hot is no different to telling people who don't like the rain that it's going to be a mudbath. The difference is at least The Nal knows he's doing it on purpose.

I do appreciate the defence, but I haven't taken this as bullying.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Mid 20s isn't 'really hot' in the middle of summer though is the point. 35 is really hot in the UK, mid 20s isnt- its normal 

Normal for 11 days per year. It's not mental to hope none of those days are over Glastonbury.

We've only ever had recorded temperatures of 35 or more in 14 years since 1900 (1906, 1911, 1923, 1932, 1948, 1957, 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019) - that's not a really hot temperature for summer, it's an abnormally hot summer.

 

[briddj]

The 06Z has been a dickhead this week. Let's see if it is this time!

[FuzzyDunlop]

Just now, DeanoL said:

Normal for 11 days per year. It's not mental to hope none of those days are over Glastonbury.

We've only ever had recorded temperatures of 35 or more in 14 years since 1900 (1906, 1911, 1923, 1932, 1948, 1957, 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019) - that's not a really hot temperature for summer, it's an abnormally hot summer.

 

You make a good point. When people say "what do you do in scenario X" - well it doesn't happen THAT often. Plus you can get out of the sun in "normal" situations.

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

I do appreciate the defence, but I haven't taken this as bullying.

Fair enough, I find it bizarre we're on the 156th page of people praying it won't rain (which, statistically, it probably will) and then someone comes along and says "I hope it's not 25C+" (which statistically, it won't be) and gets told "the festival is probably not for you".

You can certainly tell the people who have been going for 8 years and think the abnormally hot, dry weather is the norm from those that have been going for 20 and realise we've just been batting a blinder the past few festivals.

[Jacko45]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

The 06Z has been a dickhead this week. Let's see if it is this time!

 

Im scared. 

[mikeydredlox]

this thread should be promoted to the Pyramid stage - it's much more entertaining than Guns N Roses

[The Nal]

2 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

Im scared. 

[Jose Pose]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Fair enough, I find it bizarre we're on the 156th page of people praying it won't rain (which, statistically, it probably will) and then someone comes along and says "I hope it's not 25C+" (which statistically, it won't be) and gets told "the festival is probably not for you".

You can certainly tell the people who have been going for 8 years and think the abnormally hot, dry weather is the norm from those that have been going for 20 and realise we've just been batting a blinder the past few festivals.

By your own calculations there is a 50% chance it will hit 25 degrees. 

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Fair enough, I find it bizarre we're on the 156th page of people praying it won't rain (which, statistically, it probably will) and then someone comes along and says "I hope it's not 25C+" (which statistically, it won't be) and gets told "the festival is probably not for you".

You can certainly tell the people who have been going for 8 years and think the abnormally hot, dry weather is the norm from those that have been going for 20 and realise we've just been batting a blinder the past few festivals.

11 days of it reaching 25 at some point in the day or 11 days where the average temp of that day is over 25? Id like to see yur source if it's the former 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

@FuzzyDunlopI do hope you're coming to the efests meet up. It's cracked me up the controversy youve caused on this thread lol