Brexit at Glasto?

[mcshed]

Just now, eFestivals said:

me, I've not needed 1000 days to decide on a clear option. How about you?

I change my mind on what would be best quite often and that's without worrying about what is possible and how that would play with voters on both sides of the debate.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Go read the conference motion yourself it's nothing like how you're presenting it. 

and it's nothing like you presented it either. Or how Corbyn presents it.

Which was my only point.  

Edited March 25, 2019 by eFestivals

[mcshed]

38 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Remain has a majority in parliament.

 

12 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

What time today? It's a bit of a fluid situation.

Eh?

[Mr.Tease]

13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Proof please! 

 

Look at the numbers in the votes we have had. Around 20 to 50 (the latter was the number leaked to the guardian so I'd don't actually believe it) Labour mps would vote against a second referendum outright (see pps's resigning even against just abstaining against a second ref call last week).

Who are the 20-50 tory mps who will vote for a second referendum to counter act that? Nearly every commentator says there's no majority for a second referendum, even people's vote campaign says there's no majority at the moment. 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Look at the numbers in the votes we have had.

how about you look at your own demands for proof from others, and then offer up the proof you think others should have?

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Look at the numbers in the votes we have had. Around 20 to 50 (the latter was the number leaked to the guardian so I'd don't actually believe it) Labour mps would vote against a second referendum outright (see pps's resigning even against just abstaining against a second ref call last week).

Who are the 20-50 tory mps who will vote for a second referendum to counter act that? Nearly every commentator says there's no majority for a second referendum, even people's vote campaign says there's no majority at the moment. 

whataboutery.

I'm asking you for your proof that Corbyn's plan has the support you said it does.

If it doesn't have that support, it's just more hot air like all the other plans, and fuck all that's better.

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

whataboutery.

I'm asking you for your proof that Corbyn's plan has the support you said it does.

If it doesn't have that support, it's just more hot air like all the other plans, and fuck all that's better.

I said it has a higher chance, not that it will succeed 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

I said it has a higher chance, not that it will succeed 

but there's fuck all to indicate it has a higher chance. That's merely your take on things, same as other people's take on things - but which you think can only be said with proof attached.

When was the last time you heard a brexiter say "I'll accept Norway"?

Have you *ever* heard a brexiter say that? 

i've read millions of public comments about brexit. I have never even once seen a brexiter say "I'll accept Norway", but i have seen countless say they won't.

[Xeph1995]

We are in desperate need of a GE, whether that is for better or for worse. Governments with such a small majority just don't work well. 

[eFestivals]

Just now, Xeph1995 said:

We are in desperate need of a GE, whether that is for better or for worse. 

that's not going to sort out anything at all. 

The problem as I see it is that MPs don't want to be responsible for brexit, because all of the options are shit.

And either Jez is playing billybigbollocks like May is and he has no intention of allowing any brexit.

Or he wants to own brexit and stop it being a tory clusterfuck to make it a Labour clusterfuck.

Either way, Jez is a moron who isn't going to escape his own part in things.

[kingbadger]

Corbyn aside, it shows the incompetency of the ERG/1922 committee that they didn't sit on the no confidence vote until now. I wonder with this apparent plotting to oust May whether enough Tories would rebel and vote with Labour in a no confidence vote against May as PM. They could oust her there and then, would be a gamble for an election but honestly with the Labour party in the shit state it's in, what have they got to fear?

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

Corbyn aside, it shows the incompetency of the ERG/1922 committee that they didn't sit on the no confidence vote until now. I wonder with this apparent plotting to oust May whether enough Tories would rebel and vote with Labour in a no confidence vote against May as PM. They could oust her there and then, would be a gamble for an election but honestly with the Labour party in the shit state it's in, what have they got to fear?

it wouldn't oust her there and then. She'd remain as PM till there was a new PM.

We all want May to go, and yet it's still probably better if she stays. I can't see anything better coming from ousting her.

[GoonerRob]

This blog may help clear up the stats involved (what will and will not get through parliament)

Looks like a stalemate to me.

https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/eu-referendum-6-find-your-way-out-of-the-brexit-maze-in-9-days/

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, GoonerRob said:

Looks like a stalemate to me.

that's my take too.

For a start any deal will require the current Withdrawal Agreement to be voted thru, and everyone has been saying how dreadful that is.

Dreadful or not, it's the only way we exit the EU unless we no-deal (which May has just made clear is still on the table).

All I'm seeing from the current debate is everyone saying disingenuous things. About the only truth being said is May saying her withdrawal agreement is the only withdrawal agreement.

[kingbadger]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

that's my take too.

For a start any deal will require the current Withdrawal Agreement to be voted thru, and everyone has been saying how dreadful that is.

Dreadful or not, it's the only way we exit the EU unless we no-deal (which May has just made clear is still on the table).

All I'm seeing from the current debate is everyone saying disingenuous things. About the only truth being said is May saying her withdrawal agreement is the only withdrawal agreement.

I imagine this is why both sides of the house are shitting it when it comes to a second referendum if based on May's deal. How are the Brexiteers such as JRM, Boris, Corbyn etc meant to campaign for a Brexit deal they have spent months publicly ridiculing? 

Would be absolutely ridiculous for her deal, which has categorically been denounced as ludicrously bad by both Remainers and Brexiteers, to get passed as it's the only real on the table other than no deal. I can see it happening too.

[Scott129]

I think in the interests of total fairness you would have to have no deal on the ballot as well, otherwise it would just look like a complete establishment stitch up. I know people who voted brexit who have said they would vote remain over Mays deal, but would vote for no deal (rightly or wrongly). You'd then have to have something like STV or AV to avoid a split in leave votes. 

Saying that I don't think Parliament would risk no deal going to the public 

[Mr.Tease]

56 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

I think in the interests of total fairness you would have to have no deal on the ballot as well, otherwise it would just look like a complete establishment stitch up. I know people who voted brexit who have said they would vote remain over Mays deal, but would vote for no deal (rightly or wrongly). You'd then have to have something like STV or AV to avoid a split in leave votes. 

Saying that I don't think Parliament would risk no deal going to the public 

It would be fairer but don’t put it on unless you’re okay with it as an outcome. At this point it’s not a realistic option- it’s not been properly prepped for and it breaches our obligations under the Northern Ireland peace treaty. I’m not pretending to be democratic at this point, it’s like putting “shut down all London hospitals and redistribute the money to northern hospitals” on a referendum ballot- too damaging and non-sensical to have as an option whether people would vote for it or not.

[Mr.Tease]

This is the best strategy: 

https://mobile.twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1110257867989356548

[ghostdancer1]

 

[DeanoL]

10 hours ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Norway is almost as bad as her agreement - makes the UK a rule taker not a rule maker/participator. So not a solution.

It's really not. Not if you value freedom of movement and access to the single market.

9 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

Look at the numbers in the votes we have had. Around 20 to 50 (the latter was the number leaked to the guardian so I'd don't actually believe it) Labour mps would vote against a second referendum outright (see pps's resigning even against just abstaining against a second ref call last week).

Who are the 20-50 tory mps who will vote for a second referendum to counter act that? Nearly every commentator says there's no majority for a second referendum, even people's vote campaign says there's no majority at the moment. 

I think if a general election looks likely, those in marginal seats could be tempted by voting for a referendum to avoid one. Other than that it's a long shot still.

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

but there's fuck all to indicate it has a higher chance. That's merely your take on things, same as other people's take on things - but which you think can only be said with proof attached.

When was the last time you heard a brexiter say "I'll accept Norway"?

Have you *ever* heard a brexiter say that? 

i've read millions of public comments about brexit. I have never even once seen a brexiter say "I'll accept Norway", but i have seen countless say they won't.

How are you defining "brexiter" here? It was certainly floated around as a viable option during the referendum campaign. Yes, the entire process has been hijacked by the hardcore brexiteers who have slowly pushed away anything short of crashing out with no deal, but for the average voter, Norway isn't in the EU, so being like Norway means being out of the EU and that's what they voted for.

[Madyaker]

15 hours ago, Xeph1995 said:

We are in desperate need of a GE, whether that is for better or for worse. Governments with such a small majority just don't work well. 

We've had a minority gov for almost 3 years in Ireland. The first past the post system is fucking you all over big time

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, DeanoL said:

How are you defining "brexiter" here? It was certainly floated around as a viable option during the referendum campaign.

I reckon we can safely ignore all the promises made by brexiters before the vote. They should be noted to point out their lies back against them, but nothing can of them can be taken as a meaningful want of a brexiter.

The real wants of brexiters is what you're hearing now.

 

10 hours ago, DeanoL said:

Yes, the entire process has been hijacked by the hardcore brexiteers who have slowly pushed away anything short of crashing out with no deal, but for the average voter, Norway isn't in the EU, so being like Norway means being out of the EU and that's what they voted for.

People voted to be out of the EU but the Norway model is not what any brexiter voted for - otherwise you'd still hear them asking for it now, when it's never heard, and not because it's drowned out by the headbangers.

If you'd like to show me the hoards of brexit voters who wanted the Norway option I'm happy to change my mind.

And anyway, a Norway model is not available to the UK. It has to be something more-than-Norway because of NI.

[Scott129]

Yougov's latest poll suggssts that Norway style brexit is seen as the most acceptable outcome (when you consider both the people who think its a good outcome and fhose who would be happy to accept it). It also has the least number of people who actively think its a bad outcome. 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/01/where-we-stand-brexit

[eFestivals]

Just now, Scott129 said:

It also has the least number of people who actively think its a bad outcome. 

yay, let's all get behind the mediocre because some people don't understand the benefits of the EU.  

Personally I don't see how a bad option that no one actually wants satisfies anyone apart from those who don't care.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Yougov's latest poll suggssts that Norway style brexit is seen as the most acceptable outcome (when you consider both the people who think its a good outcome and fhose who would be happy to accept it). It also has the least number of people who actively think its a bad outcome. 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/01/where-we-stand-brexit

more seriously, that poll says that a Norway option is thought of as bad by as many as May's deal, and May's deal is as acceptable as Norway.

So thought of as very shit.

Yay, let's do what's shit.  That'll stop things being shit.