Weather

[stuartbert two hats]

Indeed. I think one of Glastonbury's 'problems' is it's location that leaves it vulnerable to unpredictable 'micro climate' effects.

My main concern for Glastonbury is just how high is the water table in Somerset after the winter. That flooding was insane, particularly the depth. Having taken the train to Bristol several times in the last few months, the rainwater doesn't appear to be draining particularly well after a prolonged rainfall.

Isn't Worthy Farm quite high up though?

[LondonTom]

without sounding like a prat, is there even a remote chance of having a thread for people who are interested in reading the actual weather outlook without any of the religious nutters?

As soon as your start so called " forcasts" start looking like wall to wall sunshine ...we will retreat.

[Mr Splodge]

without sounding like a prat, is there even a remote chance of having a thread for people who are interested in reading the actual weather outlook without any of the religious nutters?

You could try http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/1-weather-discussion-and-chat/

[stuartbert two hats]

You could try http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/1-weather-discussion-and-chat/

Or even better:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973

[kh24]

My recollection of longer term forecasts/weather a few weeks before the festival:

2008 - we definitely had a sustained rainy and cold spell in the run up to the festival. I know this because I panic-bought some more waterproofs and a fleece the sunday before. The CF forecast predicted rain off and on for the duration of the festival but the weather was much better than anticipated, esp from Friday afternoon onwards.

2009 - Didn't go. Can't remember a thing about that summer. I think it's a coping mechanism

2010 - weather started to become more settled, warm and dry a week or so before but I can't remember what May/start of June was like or how far in advance we knew we were in for a heatwave.

2011: we had some great weather at end of April/ the start of May up until mid-may. Then the rain returned and the weather was a bit more unsettled but warmish. (I know this from updating someone who was coming from Oz). On 17 June (the week before) I said in an e-mail to them (no doubt informed by J1 and weather threads) that there would be rain, particularly on Weds and Thurs and then it would gradually brighten by the Sunday. I remember the Friday eve heavier rain being a bit unexpected but I may have missed this

2013: We'd already had some nice weather - certainly at the start of May and then some sustained good weather at the start of June before it became a tad more unsettled as the month went on - but I think the picture was clear from about 2 weeks before about likely weather conditions

Edited May 28, 2014 by kh24

[Keithy]

I read somewhere during the winter floods that other areas in the area were flooded because of how good the drainage is in Glastonbury, so it just ran off to other areas of the site? I could have misunderstood completely but am clinging onto hope that it will mean lack of squishy ground on worthy farm!

I know Michael Eavis was very vocal about the suspension of the river dredging over the last few years however it's not clear whether that actually was a root cause of the flooding....it became a bit of a bandwagon. The drainage is good at Glastonbury but even the rainfall on Thurs night last year turned the main walkways into a mud bath however it had all drained and dried by friday afternoon.

I think the main cause of the flooding was just the sheer amount of rainfall. The local news was showing boreholes that were overflowing which was unprecedented and showed how hight the water table was.

Interestingly the unusual weather was predicted as far back as October when it was clear the gulf stream had shifted south. The papers were doom-mongering about record snowfall in winter which wasn't wide of the mark - it's just the 'snowfall' was wetter! But the predictions about a dreadful winter were spot on. The bits I've read for this summer depends on whether we get a new El Nino occurring of South America....a strong El Nino will drive up the warm weather and it's 'overdue' which is why there were reports of there being a 75% chance of record summer temperatures this year....though I should add that is globally not specifically to the UK

[Keithy]

A bit more on El Nino this year - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129562.500-el-nino-may-make-2014-the-hottest-year-on-record.html#.U4XVgPldXqU

[Glastonlocal]

A bit more on El Nino this year - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129562.500-el-nino-may-make-2014-the-hottest-year-on-record.html#.U4XVgPldXqU

The article isn't really focused ob the UK tho is it. Does anyone have any intelligence on how El Nino impacts on us?

I did read a report that England were going to be "scorched out" of the world cup by it.

[Keithy]

The article isn't really focused ob the UK tho is it. Does anyone have any intelligence on how El Nino impacts on us?

I did read a report that England were going to be "scorched out" of the world cup by it.

well.... there doesn't appear to much common consensus amongst meteorologists around how El Nino effects the UK. Some say if does have an impact and others say we're too far north to be affected.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/How-will-this-years-predicted-El-Nino-affect-our-climate

"As for Europe and the UK, the consequences of El Nino are much less clear."

The Met Office have issued quite a good report on the effects - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/ENSO-impacts - which suggests it's impact on Europe is limited.

As far as I understand it, it's the Jet Stream (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/what-is-the-jet-stream) that has the most impact on us though that in turn can be affected by a strong El Nino - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/enso_impacts.htm

[glasto84]

It's unbelievable that we can find ourselves agreeing that the "water table" is a primary concern, but yesterday wandering round my paddy field of a garden in usually bone dry East Anglia, those very words formed in my mind. We must all be a bit mad. Anyhow, the key point with water table is that any rain, should it come, will punish the ground disproportionately, as it will have no where to go.

I still cling to the probably unscientific idea that there is only so much water in the sky, so if it comes down now, then we are done with it

The environemnt agency publish 'water situation' reports monthly (yes I'm that much of a geek!) the one for April for the SW is here: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/310022/April2013_6-5-2014_QA.pdf

For Chantry which is the closest observation to Pilton the groundwater levels were normal....so hopefully the ground should be able to take some water (though of course will be dependent on what May looks like I guess)...

[Starchild771]

Or even better:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973

The model output discussion is also a good thread if you want to see what the Netweather guys have to say about the up-coming UK weather:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79879-model-output-discussion-310314-onwards/

[willutalk]

Well apparently when the weather for The Bath and West Show is bad, the weather for Glasto is good! So fingers crossed

[Midnight Man]

The model output discussion is also a good thread if you want to see what the Netweather guys have to say about the up-coming UK weather:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79879-model-output-discussion-310314-onwards/

It's a world of weather!

Thanks - just bookmarked that.

[frostypaw]

Well apparently when the weather for The Bath and West Show is bad, the weather for Glasto is good! So fingers crossed

I was thinking the same about Download - they had a total belter in 07. Pretty wet this year

So much for the science lol

It is all about the jetstream and it is all over the place and weak at the moment. El nino would kick it into action and almost certainly result in it moving north so fingers crossed

[Gnomicide]

When can we expect the first report from Big Dog?

[howlin_pete]

There will be quite a few amateur forecasters doing blogs for Glastonbury over the next few weeks. I remember one in particular kept finding the most negative charts and forcasting on them to drive up his view count

[Keithy]

When can we expect the first report from Big Dog?

Yes!! That always takes the excitement up another notch. We needs paws on the ground.

[jeffie]

Now, is Big Dog one of you, or one of us? Or should there be a Big Dog thread?

[Avalon_Fields]

without sounding like a prat, is there even a remote chance of having a thread for people who are interested in reading the actual weather outlook without any of the religious nutters?

Yeah, sure...

God willin'

[Guest]

When can we expect the first report from Big Dog?

nearer the time, nothing much to say at the mo, he wants to go out now I am back from work but it is pissing down. He can wait until teh squall passes.

[jeffie]

Yeah, sure...

God willin'

Does that include Big Dog then?

[Keithy]

Big Dog is the dog of science

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/174206-weather/page-131#entry4085822

[Ted Dansons Wig]

nearer the time, nothing much to say at the mo, he wants to go out now I am back from work but it is pissing down. He can wait until teh squall passes.

Oh Thank God. Big Dog is back. Glastonbury approaches

[Helebob's]

The amount it has been raining lately here, by the time the festival arrives there will be no rain left to fall!!!

Just trying to keep a positive vibe going - we can hope at least:-)

[Ted Dansons Wig]

The amount it has been raining lately here, by the time the festival arrives there will be no rain left to fall!!!

Just trying to keep a positive vibe going - we can hope at least:-)

Love that logic Helebob