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matt_berr
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Dude if they happened 4 times in the last 17 years I think its unlikely they're all 1/1000 year events. More like 1/5

You're measuring a selective period though. I'd wager you could go back 60 years looking at weather for that weekend and not see anything near as bad.

Or put another way, the festival has been going since 1970 yet the first reported mud bath was in 1997. There were 17 festivals before 1997 where the weather was alright. In the 14 festivals after there have been 4 with freak weather conditions. Obviously climate change plays a part, but my point was, no one predicted those four crazy years. Oh sure, they predicted rain, but not that volume of it. No one ever would as it's so unlikely it'll never get predicted.

None of which, of course, means it can't happen again. And just having 1 in 1000 weather one year doesn't make it any less likely to happen the next year. But it's very unlikely nevertheless.

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You're measuring a selective period though. I'd wager you could go back 60 years looking at weather for that weekend and not see anything near as bad.

Or put another way, the festival has been going since 1970 yet the first reported mud bath was in 1997. There were 17 festivals before 1997 where the weather was alright. In the 14 festivals after there have been 4 with freak weather conditions. Obviously climate change plays a part, but my point was, no one predicted those four crazy years. Oh sure, they predicted rain, but not that volume of it. No one ever would as it's so unlikely it'll never get predicted.

None of which, of course, means it can't happen again. And just having 1 in 1000 weather one year doesn't make it any less likely to happen the next year. But it's very unlikely nevertheless.

You're talking nonsense I'm afraid -1985 eclipsed anything the other 3 shiteouts of 97, 98 & 07 had to offer. I'm assuming you're counting 05 as one of the years with freak weather conditions, which the flood certainly was, however it doesn't rank alongside the horrors of the real mudbaths any more than 2011 does - both ended with lovely weather and ground dry enough to sit on by the Sunday.

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I'd say it won't be as bad as that, but to be on the safe side yeah. Depends which way the forecast swings over the next couple of days, but the forecast of rain on Thurs/Fri/Sat could cause 2011-esque conditions I suppose.

it's been said somewhere else but the issue with 2011 is that the site was already sodden. This year the site is bone dry. Sure we might get rain across similar days, but a totally dry site will make a difference.

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Put the Nal on that big f off woodpile up at the stone circle they burn on Wed or is it Thurs. Mind you it might not even light up this year.

Ironically he will be saved by the very mud and rain he was being burned for prophecising

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